Old ideas work

[Tim Y]

Every once in awhile I get energetic and start to clean out masses of paperwork I had not looked at in years. Last week, in going through some old Sartin notes I made LONG AGO, I happened on a whole arena of an idea that works, NOT too often, but the mutuels are usually enormous.

Simply stated: always consider horses coming from the fastest paced races of the entire race. THIS angle would have made you look twice at Mine That Bird in his Kentucky Derby as I recall. Dortmund Firing Line and American Pharoah had the fastest paced races coming into their Derby as well.

It worked again today in the 8th at Saratoga (July 23, 2016). I searched the BEST in the last 10 and Tale of Verve ran the fastest pace of race in his Belmont last year ranking the best of all of these. Paid double digits.

There are NOT TOO many of these, but, as I said, they pay well.

NOW if I only knew the correlation between just being IN a fast paced race and today's effort. This is much the same as my discovery that the top 4 finishers in this years Queen's Plate were also the top four Fraction ONE winners. One of these days I might figure out the reasons here other than just randomness.

[Tim Y]

Trivia today about the Sanford.

MOW's only loss was in his version of the Sanford.

Secretariat's ONLY non favored start...Linda's Chief was the favorite.
http://www.secretariat.com/past-performances/

[cigar]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Every once in awhile I get energetic and start to clean out masses of paperwork I had not looked at in years. Last week, in going through some old Sartin notes I made LONG AGO, I happened on a whole arena of an idea that works, NOT too often, but the mutuels are usually enormous.

Simply stated: always consider horses coming from the fastest paced races of the entire race. THIS angle would have made you look twice at Mine That Bird in his Kentucky Derby as I recall. Dortmund Firing Line and American Pharoah had the fastest paced races coming into their Derby as well.

It worked again today in the 8th at Saratoga (July 23, 2016). I searched the BEST in the last 10 and Tale of Verve ran the fastest pace of race in his Belmont last year ranking the best of all of these. Paid double digits.

There are NOT TOO many of these, but, as I said, they pay well.

NOW if I only knew the correlation between just being IN a fast paced race and today's effort. This is much the same as my discovery that the top 4 finishers in this years Queen's Plate were also the top four Fraction ONE winners. One of these days I might figure out the reasons here other than just randomness.

Tim thanks for the post. Can you post the screen shots of the entries for the Saratoga race.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by cigar

Tim thanks for the post. Can you post the screen shots of the entries for the Saratoga race.

I don't use RDSS..use older programs

Best POR pace of race hit in the 9th on turf today as Gap Year had it and was almost top early pace,,, and this was a TURFER.

I will get back to tell you the line I used to discover this.
9/7/15 at Saratoga was the line that was both best and best early pace.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

I don't use RDSS..use older programs

Best POR pace of race hit in the 9th on turf today as Gap Year had it and was almost top early pace,,, and this was a TURFER.

I will get back to tell you the line I used to discover this.
9/7/15 at Saratoga was the line that was both best and best early pace.

10/3/14 was the top line of any of the horses in this race at Keeneland.
so BOTH the fastest line overall and the best EP.......

I am backtracking to find if there are more...Recall what was written in Handicapping Magic: turf horses do not have form cycles like dirt horses.

When Court Vision won the Breeder's Cup Mile on turf defeating Goldikova, going back to some of this races the previous season put him LOGICALLY at the wire in that race.

[Tim Y]

this is another way of finding an old TURF angle "two lines better than the field," which FUNDAMENTALLY changed my outcomes on the lawn.

[Tim Y]

I have been pondering this since yesterday and it makes sense that a horse coming form a very strong pace of race, even in defeat, carries with it a performance that his higher than average total energy....at least the competitive energy of early pace. Even the first fraction oft times.

Many a good performance is over at the 8th pole and the rider does not push the animal further so third fractions can often be (in dirt anyway) less than stellar.

[barb craven]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

this is another way of finding an old TURF angle "two lines better than the field," which FUNDAMENTALLY changed my outcomes on the lawn.

FWIW This intrigued me. Let me say I'm not a handicapper in the old sense. I came to this very late in life and have always used just RDSS. Also I was taught by Richie P. to look at every line when working Turf races.

I began looking at Saratoga as I've been to the meet several times and indeed met Tim Y and his lovely wife there once. I've always had a degree of success there on dirt,, but never on Turf.

I worked all the Turf on the 23rd winning a couple and coming close on the rest, and having a curious mind went back over them trying various methods so see if there was a way to win using 2 lines for every horse.

This is the method I came up with that won every turf race on the 23rd. I shared this with Ted who encouraged me rather strongly to share it here.

I picked the top 2 lines using TPP on the Energy screen, then eliminated down to 4 on the BL screen using TT. If there were ties I referred to the BL to break them. The result was astounding. Six races - six wins in the top four contenders.

Encouraged I went on to play in real time the 24th, 27th, 28th, 29th and 30th. Of the six days of playing all the playable Turf at Saratoga regardless of field size - 26 races - 22 wins in the top 4 contenders.

On the 28th I shared this with one of my racing buddies rmath. He has his own unique way of elimination. I have only talked to him once since, but his results on the 28th were similar. I encourage him to post his findings as well.

One caviat. As I am one of Ted's testers, I am using the latest version of RDSS so there might be some variants.

Too bad this was all only on paper because as the track is settling in the prices are going down

Thank you Tim for setting me on this path. I'm now looking at Woodbine and for the past two days the results have been similar.

Cheers Barb

[rmath]

In response to Barbs request I ran the 9th at GP today.
I entered the two best TPP lines from the energy screen and then eliminated down to 4horses on the BL screen. My final 4 were the 1-2-3 &8.
I boxed all four for a dollar in the exacta, and bet the #3 to win and place at 18/1 and the #8 to win, place and show at 99/1.
It ran 1-8 and the exacta paid 156.30 for a dollar and the #8 paid 54.60 to place and 12.60 to show.
If anyone has this race I suggest you run it like Barb says and see if you get the same horses.
Good luck,
Rmath

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by rmath

In response to Barbs request I ran the 9th at GP today.

It ran 1-8 and the exacta paid 156.30 for a dollar and the #8 paid 54.60 to place and 12.60 to show.

Rmath

I got the splitzacta 1 5 with the 8 early speed (contra energy) based upon the same evaluation.
They are constructed JUST like this often on every card.