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2016 Friday & Saturday Nov 4/5 - Santa Anita |
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11-03-2016, 08:09 PM | #1 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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watch out about the new turf course
Anita turf was resurfaced.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ses-first-test QUOTE: The finishing times and fractions were noticeably very fast in comparison to recent turf races in the region, but the jockeys didn't find fault with that aspect. Fritz Johansen, who won a mile claiming race under Desormeaux, covered the distance in 1:33.66. Three races down the hillside—including two heats for the Eddie D. Stakes (gr. IIIT) all ran in 1:11 and change for about 6 1/2 furlongs. "It's like a carpet right now," said Kent Desormeaux The front end improves with no "give", and this one looks more now like the putting green sidewalk at Del Mar than the traditional turf course. Short stretch adds to the effect that speed balls have on those surfaces. Just watched a "wire job" with a co-favorite 7th SA Thursday. See if the deep movers can gain traction enough to make big moves...May not be able to..
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
11-04-2016, 10:15 AM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Weird
Its odd because the RDSS Early Late numbers and the QSP numbers
still show OTE energy. Here are some figures from my records or this 2016 SA fall meeting on the new turf At the 1 Mile (Non Maiden) distance I have 19 races at 6.5 down the hill I have 23 races For the 1 mile distance races Here are the Early / Late ratings for the comparable best of last three pace lines, which I used when choosing my lines Now here are the RDSS visual running styles of the winners of the 19 races Lastly The QSP or Qurinn speed points The top 3 highest QSP Numbers 8,7, and 6 are not producing many winners Horses with QSP 1 mile distance 8 QSP 2 - No Winners 7 QSP 25 - 1 Winner 6 QSP 22 - 5 winners 49 horses with either a 6 7 or 8 QSP and 6 winners ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For The 6.5 down the hill course The Early Late numbers are hard to track because so many runners have no comparable 6.5 hill pace lines , Very often horses are making there fiirst tries down the hill The QSP numbers also show the top 3 rating 8.7. and 6 do not do very well On The hill 6.5 distance QSP 8 11 Runners 1 winner QSP 7 10 Runners 1 winner QSP 6 9 Runners 2 winners Good Skill Bill V |
11-04-2016, 12:10 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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What?
Hey, don't we handicap from past performances? Surface speed is just that! If the surface is fast it takes less energy to get over. If it is slow, more! No different than going track to track. Don't make this more complicated than it has to be. Just handicap normally and let the program tell you what horses have demonstrated superior ability. The bias is determined by the horses in the race the vast majority of the time, as Jim Bradshaw indicated.
Look at recent turf races at IND and GFW. The times they are running are so slow you will be shocked. The 2nd calls are 2 to 3 seconds slower than you would expect from the pacelines used. But the winners run as they should! |
11-04-2016, 12:51 PM | #4 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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good
Good point Mark
The trainers know what it takes to win these races . We can tell from record keeping what type of energy the winners need. They also get information , maybe different info than RDSS but still , Once we can determine the energy requirements We can match that to the past performance line we evaluates It makes things so much easier if we can eliminate horses and only focus on true contenders Good Skill Bill |
11-04-2016, 04:38 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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I don't think so...
What you suggest is that the energy requirements of some set of races will dictate what the energy requirements will be needed in today's race with this group of horses. That is just like using Pars and that doesn't work for sure.
You have to determine what kind of pace the leader or leaders will set. Sure if today's race sets up like one of your sample races, you could win the race. However, if it is that easy to find the winner, I imagine they are bet down severely. What you really want is a race that sets up differently and that the winner will run counter-energy. You have to wait for them and chances are if their ratings are outside your acceptable range you probably threw him out anyway! Just handicap the race and see what the numbers tell you. Will there be contention for the lead or might you have a hidden early that will take them gate to wire and pay boxcars. Anyway, I sincerely hope that this stuff works for you and you can narrow the range of acceptable % Med or whatever you use, otherwise there is little elimination value. I derive my satisfaction and reward from being able to get the numbers to support how I visualize the race running. If you evaluate each horse hopefully you can get a feeling of his quality, courage, emerging form and speed and pace capabilities. Can you find a line that represents that effort? |
11-04-2016, 05:31 PM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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% Med
Hey Mark
Here is what I have for the 6.5 Hill Turf as far as E/L and Med Energy - again often in these races its hard to use a comparable pace line, but these i'm showing in my chart are races were I used a comparable pace line. Of course there are a couple of outsiders 9/30 race 6 @ 66.3 10/16 race 6 @ 66.2 and on the high end 10/9 race 4 @ 68.7 But the target area looks like 67.5 to 68 which is not too early |
11-05-2016, 12:43 PM | #7 |
So Cal Al
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Just a suggestion! Go easy, or pass (if you can), the 6 1/2 turf races at the Breeders Cup today. IMO they are a handicapping nightmare
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11-05-2016, 03:00 PM | #8 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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so true
Quote:
Hello Al This is one reason I have gone to Doubles Pick 3's, Pick 4 and Pick 5 betting The All button , or just about all spreads in these hill races. Good skill Bill |
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11-05-2016, 03:02 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Day 1 The model still says OTE Energy
4 races - Friday 11/4/16
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11-05-2016, 11:47 PM | #10 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Positional
Hi Mark
Thanks but actually I do not bet Breeders Cup Races I lost $30.50 this weekend. I started with a $12 Voucher and a winning daily double voucher for $9.50 from Woodbine from a previous day at Surfside,which I had bet but left before the races. My only bet of the day was as a partner with a friend on a pick 4 from AQU The 21.50 voucher and $10 more which LOST here was our ticket 11/4 AQU Race 7 == 6,7.10.8,4 Race 8 = = 5, 1, 12, 11 Race 9 == 2 Race 10 = = 11, 1, 6, 10 Anyway I just enjoy the chaos and big crowds on BC day but I'm not a participant, I still like to model so I did keep track even if the races were not comparable to day to day activities at SA for sure. The 2 day turf races positionally ended up fairly balanced 3 Earlys 2 Pressers 5 OTE After 10 races do we have a target ? thanks Bill Last edited by Bill V.; 11-05-2016 at 11:49 PM. |
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