Contenders

[Latekick]

Can you give me some insight on exactly how you choose your top 5 or so contenders.
I am currently using the top5 Brisn Prime
power along with the top 5 Twinspires Profit line.

I have a few horses a day that come in at nice prices that are not tp 5 ineither of the two.
How do YOU select the contenders you will handicapp

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Latekick

Can you give me some insight on exactly how you choose your top 5 or so contenders.
I am currently using the top5 Brisn Prime
power along with the top 5 Twinspires Profit line.

I have a few horses a day that come in at nice prices that are not tp 5 ineither of the two.
How do YOU select the contenders you will handicapp

Here is a link to the Teaching area that deals with picking contenders and pacelines. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784

It starts off with information on the subject taken from either the Follow Ups or the Paceline Manual. Once you read through those their are many example races using RDSS that you can read. Each race will provide a run down of each horse in the race and the reason for consideration or elimination. It will also explain which line is being used for those horses that are determined to be a contender.

[Because I Can Jim]

Hey Latekick,

For the Lead did an excellent job in the teaching area that he refers to. A definite must read and assimilate. Why?

IN the early days of the methodology, whenever there was a workshop or seminar, an enormous amount of time would be spent on paceline selection. Then contender selection would be gone over almost as an afterthought. This is because to some extent you pick pacelines in order to be able to evaluate horses for contention. (An argument and method can be shown for picking contenders first almost to the exclusion of picking pacelines, but, that is for another thread and one that is difficult for beginners to grasp As a hint: it has to do with running styles.)

So, I believe most people will pick a paceline first from which to use for deciding if the horse is a contender or not. That is what they are most comfortable with or they gravitate to and that is absolutely fine. It works for me and many, many others.

But.... (for additional consideration)....

As time passed, the methodolgy became more advanced. Computer programs changed. Today, we are using RDSS2 and in it is something called Paceline Selection Strategy. (PSS)

In PSS, you can choose between different strategies. First there is manual (which is what I learned decades ago and is what is presented in FTL's teaching thread.

Then there is Last Line which is akin to manual. It is just a shortcut and would be changed based upon using a line other than the last line.

But, then there is all of these others - Best Perceptor, Last 3 Comparable and all the way down to Best VDC, Last 3 (which is the one I focus on).

No strategy is perfect. But, they are helpful and let me explain.

My mentor uses Best VDC. He opens up the race and runs Best VDC and from that he chooses his contenders. Here is why:

rmath made a post (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9188) from his findings over 650 races using the top VDC and CSR. The winner came out of the top 5 DVC and CSR 81.4% of the time. In reading the manuals, if you pick the pacelines manually, you will pick the correct paceline about 85% of the time.

My mentor saves a lot of analysis time in doing it this way and he is comfortable in his analysis of the pacelines selected for him. He has been handicapping for many, many years and that is what he has evolved to, but, he does not use it blindly like a black box. He does change pacelines selected when necessary and also runs the Last Line PSS to get a different perspective on the a horse. (Most often, his conclusions about a horse will be the same using both Best VDC and Last Line. Ocassionally, they will be different. At these times, he will then look more closely at the horse and other factors in a race to see which paceline he should use or whether or not the horse should be a contender.)

Be forewarned: USE THE PSS LIKE A BLACK BOX AT YOUR OWN RISK!!!

So were does this leave my giving advice....

Study the FTL teaching thread. Internalize it. Use it as a foundation of knowledge from which to make judgements from.

Realize that there are things that are contradictory to using the PSS. For example, FTL has his opinion about layoffs based upon his analysis/statistics which I can respect. He will just not use a horse if a horse hase been layed off after I believe it is 90 days. Using a PSS, it will pick a line regardless of how may days, months or years a horse has been layed off.

On the other hand, while rmath did not supply us with how he decided upon the paceline selection/strategy he used, his stats also point to another direction for contender selection.

I usually end with something like "Hope this helps" but in this case I know that what I wrote may not be that helpful. I wrote it because when I first opened up RDSS2, there was this thing called PSS. Immediatley, I fell into a "black box" mode. My mentor corrected that. Using the PSS (especially Best VDC) is a decent starting point. But, It needs to be tempered with the knowledge from For The Leads post.

Best of luck.

Jim
Any Questions, Any Time

[Segwin]

Good post Jim.

[Bill V.]

Great post and helpful replies to all


My contenders are the horses I think can win the race.
Before I select pace lines, I eliminate some horses.
based on form, poor TPR numbers, poor adjusted speed ratings, poor APV
and too early or too late on the early late graph.
I only bet for win so I throw out many horses who can come in second !!
That is why I don't play exactas.
This is the contender selection method I use

I then get my top contenders during the pace line selection step
I use a combination of what I have learned from FTL's lessons,
Doc's "best of last 3" at a comparable distance, surface and competition level
and the pace line chapter in the book Pace Makes The Race ( original version ).

I always start with the last ( most recent ) pace line If it fits what I am looking for I use it,
If not I asked myself why can I excuse it. If I can I look at the next line I very rarely go past the 3rd pace line .

Bill

[Latekick]

I appreciate all the replys.
Because I Can Jim, thank you for your insight and I would like to go read up on that thread you mentioned but im not sure where to find it at on here.

Bill V. I understand what you are saying, though I am quite new to this sight I have been reading and learning the method for about a year now. Ive read mostly all of the pace line manual and read up on some of the other manuals.
I use the best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface, and if the last 3 is at a different surface I go back as far as I need to get a line for this surface. The problem I most often run into is when I choose the last line because its a comparable distance and surface, and the line ranks low, so I dismiss the horse. Well it seems that often times, the horse wins and I am sitting there scrachting my head, and when I go back to look at the horses pps, it shows a line 2 or 3 back that would have made this horse very competitive. To rid of this problem I thought of maybe instead of using running lines to choose best of last 3, to use Speed ratings to choose my best line of the last 3. Say its a 6f dirt sprint. The horse in question ran a 78 going 7f last race and 3 back ran an 85 going 6f. Should I go back to the line 3 back or stay with the 78 being that its the horses last race?



All of this is very important to me and being that I don't quite have a very high bankroll to play on, every wager is critical. I have been stryggling lately with horses that just don't rank very well beating me, and I need to stop this problem before it runs me broke. Getting advice from people who are ACTUALLY showing a profit, will help me tremendously

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Latekick

I appreciate all the replys.
Because I Can Jim, thank you for your insight and I would like to go read up on that thread you mentioned but im not sure where to find it at on here.

Here is a link to the thread you are looking for.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784

There are many more threads in the teaching area that will be of help to you.

The races shown in the teaching area show the complete PP's for each horse in the race, along with comments on each horse in the race, explaining the reason the horse is or is not a contender as well as which line is being used.

At the end of the PP's you will find 4 screen shots from RDSS, the "original" screen, which shows the horses used as contenders and the line used for each horse. Please take note that a "bad" line is never used. All the lines will be either a "+" line of a "(+)" line. In addition, you will find the "TPR" screen shot, the "SEGMENTS" screen shot and finally the "BLBL" screen shot.

Hope you find this material to be informative.

[Latekick]

Looking forward to see who wins this race, this one can go to ANYONE

[Because I Can Jim]

Latekick,
I'll try to keep this short....LOL (for me that is next to impossible)

Just so there are no illusions...Back in 1985 I was profitable using the methodology (and that is exactly what it is - a method - a set of guidlines) learning from the Doc, Bradshaw, Brohamer, and the teachers from the PIRCO group at that time. However, I got away from racing. In April of this year (2013) I decided to pursue this in earnest. So, while I speak like I know what I am talking about, which I did, today as of this writing, I don't put money through the windows. Why?

You wrote "All of this is very important to me and being that I don't quite have a very high bankroll to play on, every wager is critical. I have been stryggling lately with horses that just don't rank very well beating me, and I need to stop this problem before it runs me broke."

That is exactly why. You are putting money through the window before you fix the problem.

When I first learned, I did it on paper using old Daily Racing Forms. (I had like three years worth of the paper stacked up in a corner.) I took the time to learn on paper. It wasn't enough to just show that I stats that said I was profitable....I had to feel it deep in my psyche to know for myself.

Yet, I didn't just jump into putting money through the windows. I handicapped live but on paper until again I had profitable stats and felt it deep in my psyche (notice I said profitable and not winning - I know, I know, the psychological mumbo jumbo - LOL). Then I progressed to putting money through the windows. That was then.

This is now...

While I had the previous knowledge somewhat stored somewhere in my mind, when I looked at the methodology and RDSS2 as it was being used today, I was rather confused. It looked very different from what I knew. So, I started on paper, again.

Now is the end of July. I have learned that while everything seems different, it is still very much the same at the core of the methodology. The way I approach a race is very different from the way I used to (this is a function of the advancements made from when I first learned - for example, I recognize the velocity tabs and even the energy tab, but, I never look at the velocity tab any more), yet, the fundamental principles still apply that are in For The Leads teaching thread. You can get the database just by downloading it and work through the material even though it takes away from doing live races. There is much to be learned and should be learned without putting money on the line.

And while I have changed my method of handicapping, I can say without a doubt that reading Bill's posts is like listening to the Doc as reincarnated. He is a walking encyclopedia of the method I read every word of his. The way he handicaps is very much similiar to the way I handicapped.

While I have spent about 4 months "again" learning the methodolgy, I have progressed from on paper using old races to on paper using live races and find myself profitable. Yet, I will not put money through the windows until I feel it in my bones that I am profitable at which time I will "go live" which will not be too much longer.

So while I speak from authority, I am also a beginner. It seems a contradiction, but, my past experience allows me to have a very unique perspective on the methodology as a whole.

I quoted you. You also raised a good question for you and one that you need to learn the answer to either by yourself (the answer is found in the practical application of what is in the teaching thread and remember nothing is 100% as there will always be nuances) or with someone's help and FTL and Bill both offer premium counseling/advice. If you are losing money, then stop putting money through the window until you do learn the answer to your question(s) that may be holding you back from being profitable.

Which as my last bit of advice... didn't I say I would try to keep this short???? LOL

If you are wagering and you come across a race that you have a question in your mind that does not allow you to make a clear distinction in your mind about the race, what should you do?

PASS THE RACE!!!

That is what winners do. If they are not sure about something after drawing upon their knowledge and experience, they pass the race. It has been written about time and again, but, each individual has to come to grasp with passing races in their own way. Emotionally, I would be heart sick if I could only wager on the weekend, spending hours handicapping and able to wager on only a few races. Mentally, I am making money! Playing to many races, I am losing money. Which do I want - the action or the profits? The choices are unique to every individual.

On paper from using old races, in the "comfort" of a risk free environment, I will handicap a card and amazingly, will only pass one or two races that I look at. Meaning as an example, if there are 10 races on the card, maybe I will not look at the two maiden races with many first time starters. Out o fthe remaining 8 races, I would pass only 1 or 2.

When I moved to using live races, yet, doing them on paper, now I pass 5 or 6 of those 8. Why? Confidence.

If I did not handicap the card today and three months from now I decided to look at the card, I would probably pass only 1 or 2, yet, today, I am passing 5 or 6.

But, and here is the important point..... I am PASSING the races. If I am unsure and I am not playing, I am not losing. Period.

If you make the argument that I am not winning, that is true but only due to lack of confidence. As I see that what I am doing is working, I will have more confidence to make the wagers and see the winning results which will give me more confidence. Yet, I still have the profitable method from which to progress from. Without it....

Sorry, everyone, that I got sidetracked since this original thread was about contender selection, but, I write as I see them which is quite often off the beaten path.

Jim

[Because I Can Jim]

Heh, heh!!! Here I go again...not! LOL

I agree with Bill's assessment of Disarm as far as possibly being hurt. However,...

Look at the 4 April race 115 days ago for both horses. Same race with Disarm beating Whole. Look at their positions versus POR.

Whole was right where he should have been at the 2C. And so was Disarm. But, Disarm was facing a slightly faster POR 44 and 1 than he seems to be able to handle at a 44 and 3 or slower.

Now notice that Whole seems to be declining in form even though he is being run regularly and has recency.

Whereas Disarm may or may not be out of form. (Form and condition are not the same thing. It hay be out of condition - possibly hurt, but, I would argue against it being out of form.)

And this is where passing the race comes into play. You can see from Bill's assessment that he brings his entire body of knowledge and experience into play and is not sure - so he passes.

As for me, I would like to see more information. Unfortunately, I do not download Del Mar to see what else was in the race and cannot say one way or another although I do have questions, which would lean me towards passing the race also, but, that depends upon the other horses in the race.

The thing about these two horses is that the public will perceive them as "not a good horse to put money on". While I might be inclined to believe that about Whole, Disarm shows the kind of past performance that will pay a decent mutual. There are all of these 1's then 2's in the past then 5's and 6's in positions for the last two races. Depending upon what it is facing today, if it is a contender, it will go off at a higher price. It is a horse that can beat the favorite.

Whereas, with Whole, the public will shy away from this horse due to its Stretch and Final positions in its last two races and most likely rightly so becuse the 2C positions as compared to the POR it faced seem to be going out of form. Will its be a factor in today's race? If there are no other early horses, it will most likely have the lead and could possibly wire the field once again paying a high price. If there are other early horses or early pressing horses, it will run to the second call and then fade. It has to be considered because it will effect the POR. Unless there is no other horse that can run decently as a presser or sustained, then Whole would be a contender. But, if there is pressure up front, then no - not a contender, but, needs to be considered in "projecting" the race.

Which brings us back to Disarm. It is one of those horses that would be there just behind that early speed battle and would have enough in the tank as the early horses tire and would pass the horses that would be running slower due to the battle. The public would be on the favorites/early speed. While it does not look that great, it does not look that bad either and might be worth considering as a contender. If for some reason it found itself on the lead as in the past, then so much the better.

I wrote a post about numbers (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9206). Don't get too focused on the numbers. Focus on the relationships using the numbers to define the relationships.

If you focus on the numbers, you might come to a conclusion that Disarm cannot beat Whole due to the 4 APR race. But, that is not today and what might happen (the future) today. Remember, we are prognosticators - we take educated guesses at the future. No one knows until the race has been run. All we can do is to look at the information and form an opinion. Without a clear opinion, PASS........