OFF Track help? - Pace and Cap

Giahorse · 03-26-2014, 07:11 PM

I can only go to the track as on npw on Saturday and this Saturday it is suppose to rain at most of the tracks, I know some will say just dont play off tracks, I hate off tracks myself,

as for handicapping the races can i assume that if the horse has run well on a sloppy or muddy track to just handicap the way I would if it was fast and maybe penalize horses that have proven they don't like off tracks. any thought on this would be great, I know not to invest in them might be the best thing but if that is not posible what a good way to do it.

thanks

DELMARGRANT · 03-26-2014, 07:47 PM

I can tell you what I do with the off track. I play no matter what the track condition is, fast,muddy,,sloppy, I don't care. I keep track profiles for all types of track conditions. If your track is sloppy just ask, Who Wins? Early horses, pressers or closers? Once I know this, half of the battle is won. Horses that fit the track profile and that have proven that they can run well on that type of track I give extra credit to. For horses that have never been on the off track surface I use the breeding to decide if they can do well today. I look at who has the stickers on or special shoes and if the tail is tied up or not. I keep records on this as well. I watch the post parade to see how a horse reacts on the off track. If the horse likes the conditions I will favor him over a horse that looks unhappy to be out in the mud. Above all I play to the odds and demand at least 4-1 on any horse I bet.

Giahorse · 03-26-2014, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DELMARGRANT

I can tell you what I do with the off track. I play no matter what the track condition is, fast,muddy,,sloppy, I don't care. I keep track profiles for all types of track conditions. If your track is sloppy just ask, Who Wins? Early horses, pressers or closers? Once I know this, half of the battle is won. Horses that fit the track profile and that have proven that they can run well on that type of track I give extra credit to. For horses that have never been on the off track surface I use the breeding to decide if they can do well today. I look at who has the stickers on or special shoes and if the tail is tied up or not. I keep records on this as well. I watch the post parade to see how a horse reacts on the off track. If the horse likes the conditions I will favor him over a horse that looks unhappy to be out in the mud. Above all I play to the odds and demand at least 4-1 on any horse I bet.

Can you tell me more about raped tales and I assume it's a good thing if the horse has stickers

DELMARGRANT · 03-26-2014, 09:21 PM

Well if they take the time to rap the horses tail it means they think the horse will run good in the mud. It is done to keep the mud from building up in the horses tail and some horses don't like the extra junk back their and don't run as well with their tail down. Some horses do run good with their tail down in the mud. But When I see one with it up and he or she likes to run in the mud and I have a good number for the horse on a off track it can be a plus. As far as shoes, just look at the shoe board at the track and see what horse has what. In cheep claiming races if horses don't have a chance in the race why would the owner pay a extra 150.00 dollars to have the shoes put on and then another 150.00 to have regular shoes put back on after the race. Not sure the cost of shoes but it is a extra cost none the less. In a stakes race it would be worth it as long as you have a contender. The best thing to look at is how do horses win at your track when it is off. Then look for those horses and if they fit the profile and you have good odds it's worth a bet. For example at AQU on the inner track at 6 f most horses go wire to wire or come just off the pace on a sloppy track. If the track as been sealed it is 70% wire to wire. So I look closer at the horses with that running style. Of course a closer can win but there needs to be a ton of speed and have the front runners fall apart.

MikeB · 03-27-2014, 02:11 PM

My policy is to never play a race that was carded on turf and is taken off turf, even if the main track is in good shape. The horse was entered in a turf race because that's where the trainer figured was the right race. If a race goes off turf, some trainers will scratch and some will just run anyway. I don't want to try to figure out why.

03-26-2014, 07:11 PM	#1
Giahorse OC Join Date: Feb 2013 Location: Baltimore,MD Posts: 61	OFF Track help? I can only go to the track as on npw on Saturday and this Saturday it is suppose to rain at most of the tracks, I know some will say just dont play off tracks, I hate off tracks myself, as for handicapping the races can i assume that if the horse has run well on a sloppy or muddy track to just handicap the way I would if it was fast and maybe penalize horses that have proven they don't like off tracks. any thought on this would be great, I know not to invest in them might be the best thing but if that is not posible what a good way to do it. thanks __________________ Some will, Some wont, so what, Next

03-26-2014, 07:47 PM	#2
DELMARGRANT Grade 1 Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 170	OFF TRack I can tell you what I do with the off track. I play no matter what the track condition is, fast,muddy,,sloppy, I don't care. I keep track profiles for all types of track conditions. If your track is sloppy just ask, Who Wins? Early horses, pressers or closers? Once I know this, half of the battle is won. Horses that fit the track profile and that have proven that they can run well on that type of track I give extra credit to. For horses that have never been on the off track surface I use the breeding to decide if they can do well today. I look at who has the stickers on or special shoes and if the tail is tied up or not. I keep records on this as well. I watch the post parade to see how a horse reacts on the off track. If the horse likes the conditions I will favor him over a horse that looks unhappy to be out in the mud. Above all I play to the odds and demand at least 4-1 on any horse I bet.

03-26-2014, 09:21 PM	#4
DELMARGRANT Grade 1 Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 170	shoes and tails Well if they take the time to rap the horses tail it means they think the horse will run good in the mud. It is done to keep the mud from building up in the horses tail and some horses don't like the extra junk back their and don't run as well with their tail down. Some horses do run good with their tail down in the mud. But When I see one with it up and he or she likes to run in the mud and I have a good number for the horse on a off track it can be a plus. As far as shoes, just look at the shoe board at the track and see what horse has what. In cheep claiming races if horses don't have a chance in the race why would the owner pay a extra 150.00 dollars to have the shoes put on and then another 150.00 to have regular shoes put back on after the race. Not sure the cost of shoes but it is a extra cost none the less. In a stakes race it would be worth it as long as you have a contender. The best thing to look at is how do horses win at your track when it is off. Then look for those horses and if they fit the profile and you have good odds it's worth a bet. For example at AQU on the inner track at 6 f most horses go wire to wire or come just off the pace on a sloppy track. If the track as been sealed it is 70% wire to wire. So I look closer at the horses with that running style. Of course a closer can win but there needs to be a ton of speed and have the front runners fall apart.

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03-27-2014, 02:11 PM	#5
MikeB Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 154	My policy is to never play a race that was carded on turf and is taken off turf, even if the main track is in good shape. The horse was entered in a turf race because that's where the trainer figured was the right race. If a race goes off turf, some trainers will scratch and some will just run anyway. I don't want to try to figure out why.