GP Race 3 1/23/14

[Segwin]

Here is the line up:

[Segwin]

More of the field:

[Segwin]

Bl - seg - tpr:

[Segwin]

Bill (& All):

Do you see any of the others being able to touch the 3? It would appear that the three has the ability to wire (?)

[Segwin]

Thanks Bill.

[DontSayDont]

Seg,

I looked at and played this race as I thought I could beat the post time favorite, #5 Tizracer. Like you I had good EP figures for #3 Unbridled Saint. Since you have posted this, I re-looked at this horse. His running style is listed as EP5, according to bris, meaning he only gets the lead sometimes. There is no E horse in the field, so I gave him the benefit of inheriting the lead. Still looking at his last 10 races and he has only once broke first. Even at the 1Call he only shows 2 seconds and 1 third position (no first). It doesn't look like he'll break away from the field by 1Call.

So he breaks first and holds the lead through 2Call on a 46.98 - 71.59 pace. Line 1 for him is listed as a Gd track that was playing slow by 7, so any Track Variant adjustment will make him look even faster. But look at all his other route races and I think Line 1 gives him to much early pace. So even though it meant taking a race that was 116 days old, I used Line 2 (which seemed to fit his running style). It still made him the early pace of this field with a 47.9 - 72.0 POH rating.

What happened in the race? It looks like he went a bit faster early than he should. 47.0 - 71.6 when Line 2 shows him at 47.9 - 72.0. Probably from the pressure from the winner #2 Trading Secrets, who according to Line 2, didn't show that type of Early Pace. I did not want to use Line 1 on him as it was a Turf Race, but in that race he did show a new dimension of running early.

Was Unbridled Secret put into a race shape that became uncomfortable for him? Or was the pace just a little to fast? The final time of the race was 106.5 and Line 2 shows him at 106.6. He ran a final time close to his ability but looks more like the early pace was just a bit to much on him.

I narrowed the field to only 4 contenders. They were 4-3-7-2. All 4 were rated off Line 2 in their PP's.

Ray

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry and Ray
I apologize I messed up and must not have been on my game.
I handicapped the race as a turf race. I was wrong. Its a 1 turn mile dirt race
Please disregard my post

Bill

[Segwin]

Hi Ray:

Thanks much for the detailed report. I like to see how others think their way through the problems.

I did play around with different pace lines for the 3. One of the greatest things in RDSS is being able to click on a different pace line and bingo-bango out pops the new BL/BL. Very cool.

I did bet the 3 but also bet the 2 to win so it didn't sting as bad.

[Appy]

"Bingo-bango"?
:lol:
Good thread Segs.