GP Race 4 1-17-14

[Segwin]

Hello All:

I'm posting this race because I want to make sure I'm seeing/calling it right. I'm not going to bet this race as 1) I can't settle it in my mind & 2) I don't see anything worth much value.

On to the race:

I'm having problems with file size upload. I have to get to some work related tasks - I'll sort this problem out and complete later.

[Segwin]

Ok - lets try again:

[Segwin]

The remainder:

[Segwin]

OK, looks like all uploaded OK.

#1 - 1st line. Last three ITM with a G3-100 3rd place. The odd thing here is the BL/BL. It is placing this horse as 7th but if you notice RDSS is picking up the SR of 69 but the DTV is 42! I think the horse is better than what the BL/BL is showing and interested on the thoughts of others.

#2 3rd line back. Line 1 & 2 the horse was outclassed and really had no business in these races.

#3. First line. It is also the Fulcrum horse but I bent the rule just a tad. I actually took the 2nd line back for that because it is how I saw the pace setting up.

#4. Last line. Belongs class wise and will be coming up from behind.

#5 2nd line. Outclassed on 1st line. I see the horse behind the leaders but won't be able to keep up with the pace. He did have a smart workout recently though.

#6. 2nd line back. Running up front but will be outclassed.

#7. Last line. May be boarder on class. Will be coming up from behind.

#8. Something is wrong with this horse and shouldn't have a line.

I see the 3 horse up front with 2 & 6 trying to keep up. If the three can't wire then it will be 1 or 4 to win.

I'm not betting this race but was interested in what others think. Especially with the 1 horse.

I forgot to post the seg screen & TPR screen so that will be next.

[Segwin]

Seg & TPR screens:

[cigar]

My Win Bet are 5 and 1

I've attached a word file of the BLBL and Segment screen, not sure how to upload screen shot.

[Segwin]

I'm surprised to see 8 place. The trainer, Todd Pletcher, is on fire and the 8 was worth strong consideration but his first race back from a layoff wasn't impressive at all.

The 3 paid 1.30

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry
thanks for doing the work to put up a race


Here is my look. Using the method I use of FTL's guidelines and using phase 1
The winner looks very solid I had an issue selecting the fulcrum so i by passed
that in this race

Here is what I have

The 2 and the 3 are my top 2 TPR's with big advantages on EP
looking at the result chart the 3 just outran everybody right from the
start




Horse 1 No line - No recent dirt routes

Horse 2 I will forgive the last two stakes races and use line 3

Horse 3 Line 1 is a 1 turn mile from CD
so I will just move down to line 2

Horse 4 No reason not to use line 1

Horse 5 I will excuse the grade 2 line 1
and drop down to the + line 2

Horse 6 I could use line 1 and trust the adjustments from a 1 turn mile to two turns but the adjusted numbers are way below the pack for TPR so why bother No Line

Horse 7 No reason not to use line 1

Horse 8 No line bo recent + dirt routes

[Segwin]

Morning Bill:

Thanks for the reply.

I'd like to discuss DTV and it's effects.

My concern in this race was the #1 horse. By picking its last line it ended up 2nd to last in the BL/BL. Actually the last line was his best speed rating - 105. Now applying a DTV of 42 he has dropped to a ADJ. SR of 69. This ADJ. SR does NOT represent this horse.

While I thought the horse would do better it didn't do as poorly as RDSS would have suggested (also had the best LPR).

What is your take on this?

[Segwin]

My DVT settings.