Explain the adjust

[trotman]

I placed this here rather than the handicapping section because I have a question to ask and that is "Why Adjust". The Hat didn't adjust, his followers didn't adjust, so "Why Adjust". If each race is a one off, I still remember the Hat explaining this then how can you adjust based on par times or whatever. The Hat's words stuck with me "Raw" cut and dried they are what they are and all this adjust this and that puts us further from the reality. Try working races with the raw numbers and facts and you will be surprized how close you are.

[benzer]

For me that is one of the great advantages of RDSS. You have the option to adjust or not, or by how much you want to adjust.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by trotman

I placed this here rather than the handicapping section because I have a question to ask and that is "Why Adjust". The Hat didn't adjust, his followers didn't adjust, so "Why Adjust". If each race is a one off, I still remember the Hat explaining this then how can you adjust based on par times or whatever. The Hat's words stuck with me "Raw" cut and dried they are what they are and all this adjust this and that puts us further from the reality. Try working races with the raw numbers and facts and you will be surprized how close you are.

Without getting too involved in a discussion about "adjust" or "not adjust", let me just offer the following.

I'm going to use an extreme example here for illustration purposes. Take a look at this thread from the "matcher's forum". http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7294

Based on raw times alone, there is no way to get the winner of this race. It would be dismissed out of hand as being "too slow".

Years ago, before slots, these "bull ring" tracks, like CT and DED, stayed pretty much to themselves. The horses were the lowest of caliber and the purses they ran for were next to nothing, so there was no reason for horses from regular tracks to ship into these bull rings unless the horse became crippled and there was no where else the horse could compete. Likewise, horses from these bull ring tracks did not dare to ship to a regular track as they just couldn't compete there.

However, today, with these bull ring tracks having slots and higher purses, coupled with the decline of stock at most tracks, the horses from these bull ring tracks can and do ship to regular tracks and in some instances they can compete. The problem is, bull ring tracks have slower times. It is just the nature of the bull ring track as it is 6 furlongs in circumference as compared to the 1 mile circumference of most tracks.

Where there are horses shipping in to a bull ring track from regular tracks, you have the same problem in reverse. These shippers are NOT going to run the faster times you see in their PP's. The smaller track will take care of that. So going in either direction, adjustments are necessary.

I have been matching horses for over 40 years, albeit not the way "Hat" taught it. When I first started in handicapping, horses ran "on a circuit". For me, that meant Monmouth, Garden State and Atlantic City. In New York, that meant Saratoga, Belmont and Aqueduct. In Maryland it meant Pimlico, Laurel and Bowie. And, of course, in southern California, it meant Del Mar, Hollywood and Santa Anita, just to mention a few.

My point here is, the same horses ran on these circuits. When one track closed, one of the others opened and the horses just moved. The surfaces were all the same in those days, just turf or dirt and the times could be matched regardless of which track the lines were from. Other than southern California, today it is a lot different. Of course now Santa Anita has gone back to a dirt surface where Hollywood and Del Mar are still on artificial surfaces, so that present s bit of a problem.

The long and the short of it is, today I believe adjustments are more necessary than there were in the "good old days" and I mean "good old days" sincerely.

Anyway, that's my take on it.

[shoeless]

FTL,

Your so right about shippers coming into CT and you can add Penn to the mix as well.Before slots you could automatically throw out those horses shipping into CT for the claiming races as it was a tipoff trainers were trying to unload the horse.


I used to love those Atlantic City race meets

[trotman]

Based on raw times alone, there is no way to get the winner of this race. It would be dismissed out of hand as being "too slow". Quote.

My way of looking at it is who cares about the Bull Rings sure there will be prices but my way of looking at it is, just the fact there is always a variable when dealing with these tracks why wade into these pools when in most cases you can without adjusting play at the major circuits and still get price.
This was just a question I asked and For The Lead that was a very good explanation. I like you have been matching over 40 years and always felt adjusting was just adding or expanding a variable which in my way of going was to eliminate as many variables.

[5Chalky5]

FTL -

When you say adjust the times from track do you mean horses coming to BHP from SA should have their raw times adjusted to be more in line what they would have run over BHP?

Kyle

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by 5Chalky5

FTL -

When you say adjust the times from track do you mean horses coming to BHP from SA should have their raw times adjusted to be more in line what they would have run over BHP?

Kyle

In a word…”YES”.

Years ago when the methodology was first getting started and when Tom Brohamer was making a name for himself, they were southern California guys. In those days all three southern California tracks were dirt tracks. Have you ever heard the line “it never rains in southern California”? Well, the three southern California tracks used to be like concrete highways. The horses at any of these three tracks ran lightning fast times that were pretty comparable. It was fairly easy to match using “raw” times, since the times weren’t that far apart. HOWEVER…………

At that same time period, I was handicapping tracks in the mid-atlantic states, such as LRL, PIM and BOW(that is Bowie, now defunct) in Maryland or GS (Garden State, now defunct), MTH and ATL (basically defunct) in New Jersey or PEN and KEY (Keystone, now PRX). Try matching those tracks during the winter months, when the “track variant” is HIGHER than the speed rating!! You will quickly learn that adjustments are needed.

As I said earlier in this thread, racing use to be “on a circuit”. Today, you will find horses shipping all over the place. Take MNR as an example. I see horses shipping in from PEN, CD, LRL, PID, HOO, BEU, RD, TDN, TP and CT, which should cover the majority of tracks I have seen horses shipping in from. If you think all these tracks are equal, you will have a problem. They are not. They are different with regard to surface (dirt or artificial) and they are different with regard to class. And don’t kid yourself, better class horses run faster than lower class horses.

At this point in my handicapping evolution, it doesn’t matter which tracks I’m looking at. I have a program that does all the adjusting for me, so it is not a problem and does not create any extra work. It happens automatically. All I do is periodically update my “pars file”.

Having said all that, I’ll return to my one word answer…..”YES”!

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

At this point in my handicapping evolution, it doesn’t matter which tracks I’m looking at. I have a program that does all the adjusting for me, so it is not a problem and does not create any extra work. It happens automatically. All I do is periodically update my “pars file”.

Having said all that, I’ll return to my one word answer…..”YES”!

Kyle,

Like FTL's own private program, RDSS also has built in track to track adjustments (supplied by TrackMaster, updated periodically and automatically) to equalize the varying speeds of different tracks. That's what the 'TrackMaster ITV' adjustment is on your Configure screen, and most of the time it works well enough.

Ted