Long shot in a 6 horse race

[rmath]

Had to show this race.
The # 2 & #4 were both bet down to 1/1 so I just passed and watched.

[Bill V.]

Lets see ...
Small track, Small field Ranked 3rd
Hmmm Maybe Doc and Jim bet on this one from up above
just for old time sake for Doc's birthday

[Rverge]

gentleman....i view different pace line secections. What and why your pacelines? Thank you

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by Rverge

gentleman....i view different pace line secections. What and why your pacelines? Thank you

Great question, there, I see 2 vastly different stlyes, in play I think, 1 using best speed of last 3 similar races and then 1 using, normally most current, or last race , if possible as a paceline selection criteria.

I myself will look for Best of last 3 races, ( if Current-180 days) comparable ( distance and then surface, if possible ) , I then look for value if there, which appparently it was.

Please, note that today I have let one slip by that was 3rd Tier, on BL/BL and I missed it, strictly my fault , by doing something different, not being consistent, as Doc preached, so often, be consisitent.

Still would like to hear from those 2, to see if I am close to answering for them, maybe other's could share if they would have had this horse in there top 3, in a 6 horse race?

patrick

[rmath]

Rverge , Patrick is right.
I use the best of last 3 comparable: in this race we both had the winner in our final contenders. I chose to pass this race because both of my top two horses were bet down to 1/1. Doc suggested in one of the follow ups that passing a race when this happens is a good idea, because one of them will usually win. Not always as this race proves.
With this kind of odds you have the option to take a flyer. I chose not too. My mistake.
Thanks Patrick for answering this.

Even with two different styles of paceline selection we both had the winner, so neither is right OR wrong.
We may differ on this point but in the long run both of us get a high % of winners.

rmath

[Bill V.]

Rmath, Rverge and Patrick

I picked my pacelines using Phase 1
I first use every horses last paceline
The winner's last line was a 8.0 route line
This route line rates the 7 with the best LP
I consider the top 5 TPR and top EP and LP horses
as my contenders

I eliminated any other horse
In this race that meant the 3 and the 5 don't make the cut

Once I have my top 5 contenders I then picked the best plus race of the last three

The 1 2 and 4 all ran plus races in their last race so I used those lines

The 6 and 7 did not run plus races so i used the most recent comparable line
that would be line 1 for horse 6 and line 2 for horse 7

[rmath]

Thanks Bill, I do not have phase I but I have read about it.
Like you explanation.
Good Luck & Good Skill

rmath