The Pace Handicapper...

[Charlie D]

is best served by following a regular procedure

1, Evaluate the Early part of the race.

Evaluate the chances of the horses involved in that part of the scenario then disqualify runners who don't measure up.

2, Evaluate the Pressers.

Most often, a weak Early pace picture strongly favours this type. They have first run at the leaders and must be given strong consideration.

3, Consider the Closers.

In most races these are the least probable winners. Avoid closers that are unable to reach a striking position by the stretch call. They are proven losers at every track in the country and only win with a complete collapse of the pace.


The format is simple. Unfortunately, most players have little organization in their approach and often proceed too quickly to betting decision. This procedure will give each type it's proper due. It will also ensure adequate understanding of the pace picture for the race you are about to bet.



Modern Pace Handicapping by Tom Brohamer.

[dlivery]

Hi There

What I've learned is over working a race has a effect just like in any other sport
over analyzing it can be just as deleterious to ones bankroll as under analyzing it.

[mikesal57]

good post charlie...

but there's one important thing that should be considered..

"know thy track"

at some tracks that "weak" early horse might just have enough to hold on..

I'm sure other can confirm this that AQU is not a speed favoring track...

the other day , i had a horse that i capped to go to the front and with no pressure should wire em....well he got a 2 lt lead and I saw fractions of 23.4 47.0 and said "nice home free"...he came in third..

mike

[Charlie D]

Hi Mike

I personally do not use track profiles as each race is a seperate entity, but getting to "know thy track" is useful.

[lsosa54]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

good post charlie...

but there's one important thing that should be considered..

"know thy track"

at some tracks that "weak" early horse might just have enough to hold on..

I'm sure other can confirm this that AQU is not a speed favoring track...

the other day , i had a horse that i capped to go to the front and with no pressure should wire em....well he got a 2 lt lead and I saw fractions of 23.4 47.0 and said "nice home free"...he came in third..

mike

Agreed, Mike. The few times I capped the AQUI this year, late pace was king. The only explanation I have for it is that something to do with the track surface or configuration is tiring out that unpressured early horse that on paper, appears all systems go.

I never heard Doc or Jim or Tom Bro, either at a live seminar or otherwise, say to ignore the 3rd fraction when evaluating a race on any track. Unpressured early or not, you better be able to come close to the track's 3Fr requirement for the class level & distance.

[Bill V.]

Thanks Charlie

I also would suggest just a bit of matching fit and ready horses
and watching closly horses on the decline
Its important that the horse runs the race to his best ability
more so when facing heated pressure from lessers