Advice for Patrick & other newcomers

[alydar_ David]

This is in reply to your post in the Selections thread.

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

...

1st payday to play, so if playable my wagers today will be as follows

1.00 ex box top 3 contenders for 6.00

2.00 win bets on top 2 value plays within the 3 contenders for 4.00...

Hello Patrick.

Although the following is not the most efficacious approach you may find it helpful. If I may offer a suggestion --- at least 80% of your money should go on straight bets (win, place and show bets). With only $10 to bet per race I'd suggest using all of it for straight bets.

If both your choices are 3-1 or more, bet $5 to win on each of them. Don't hedge. You'll make more money that way in the long run.

If one of your choices is 5/2 and the other is 4-1, bet $6 on the 5/2 shot and $4 on the 4-1 shot. That's about as low as you can go.

If you have a "can't lose" horse who is going off at a short price, but which you still consider an overlay (for example you make him Fair Odds of 6/5 and he's going off at 2-1), then bet $4 to win and $6 to place.

Wait until you've won at least a couple of hundred bucks before you delve into the exotic and multi-race pools. When you reach that level keep a separate bankroll for those pools. And keep records. Maybe you stink at exactas? Maybe that's where you excel? Keeping records will let you know.

The "at least 80% on the straight end" applies to every race, regardless of your bankroll.

For a more detailed discussion on money management I suggest you read the works of Dick Mitchell, Mark Cramer or Barry Meadow.

It never ceases to amaze me how otherwise intelligent and proficient handicappers continue to flounder in this area. It's not a black art. It's finite. And once you learn it you know it forever.

I won't say "Good luck." I will say, "Be disciplined." You can do it.

[pktruckdriver]

Okay Mike

I got nothing to lose to try it your way for awhile, and just let things fall out as they may, and in time all will tell.

Win bets top 2 with high enough odds, wp sure shot horse, etc..., build a bank to over hundred before exotics, you say, well my life has been exotics, never win bets, honestly never, unless you would call DD and P3 win bets as I must get the winners of all races to win, to me they had value, with a 5/2 winning and the other leg a 8-1 or os and pay-outs were appropriately higher than staright win bets, or so I thought and think today.

Now to show I am able to rethink and try something different I will bet win bets, and see if I was wrong, who knows maybe I was, it's happened before, and will happen again, I promise that.

Again with records, Keep records of this and that, my o my, we can't do anything wothout record keeping, this really is a business like veture, isn't it??? In order to see what I am doing and track what works I need to keep good records, well the fact of the matter I do not, this is my very weakess point, keeping any records, it use be I didn't realy know how, well today that is not the case as y'all here have told me and helped me to get to the point of almost just cutting and pasting my records, and then being able to see them , As Ted tried with me this weekend, except I had a temporary copy of Excell, not a full use copy , so we must tryo again when I get Open Office or an fully operational copy of Excel 2007 up and running , and that may be awhile , but OO is free so I will have that this week.


Mike thanks for the advice, I'll try it and see how well it works, no promises on the record keeping, but I know it needs to be done, but really teaching old dogs new tricks isn't as easy as people think it is, it really takes some coaxing, but I will look in to it and figure a way to get'r done, especially if I wish to get ahead in this game, then I must put in the work required, agreed...


Thanks Man
Patrick

[seattlesnake]

Hang in there Patrick read your other posts re: job....

Once it becomes 2nd nature to you like the way you drive a truck it will be like a sunday drive and no traffic or highway patrols to stop you!!!

[pktruckdriver]

Thx , really..

I read that too and it is one of the many reason's I'm making chnages from previously done things, as I do not wish to stay in that vicious cycle, but I am procrastinating too much, instead of just writing it down or tryping it in somewhere, and maybe I should just do it and see, quit trying to find easier ways, no more excuses, no more blame , so let us see how I do , if I change and record my wagers and see if I get this Excel thing ging and make my models and see my tracks trends, and become a winner ....


Also much thx on the job thing, it may work out after all, seems to be looking that way, but headed to knoxville now for another sleep study tomorrow nght, hopefully all goes well, and it should .


Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

OOPS Sorry David, I called you Mike, so sorry man...was a little stressed this morning, but this post hit home and after the weekend, in Chicago, I need to adhere to it

Patrick

[seattlesnake]

Patrick,

When I was with Doc in the mid 80's I was requested to turn in betting records in 20 race cycles for each new program on a weekly basis- PhaseIII, Energy & K-Gen for research purposes. It actually helped to have another eye to give me a professional critique analysis and so he became like a father figure, mentor and doctor all bundled into 1 package.

You had mentioned that you were using Sartin's in the past and was wondering how long ago and were you not required to send in wagering records in 20 race cycles?

Im just a newbie here on this board but I would ask Ted and the core group permission if you can post your 20 race cycles here for review and critique analysis....since the group has the same concept and belief that Doc had instilled to those he had touched.

And once you download and get familiar with the excell program I can help you setup a simple recordkeeping program until Ted sends out the new program.

As you can tell its a slow raceday so I am able to respond or give input and comment.....


Jess

[pktruckdriver]

Please be advised that I have read Doc's POW writing in the library and that is where I saw what you posted earlier, and I believe it, but no I did not state I was a previous user, as I too am new here and learning , but still seem to be a little bit stubborn/ and or lazy with this record keeping thing, and need to stop and do it already, period.

So tell me what to do and when, I am at your mercy.

patrick