Why do we love Silky?

[Tim Y]

He is the exception, not the rule and in a great book Smart Choices by Hammond, Keeney and Raiffa the authors point to why various psychological traps cloud our judgment of things.

p. 203, "Focusing on Dramatic Events" makes a situation "seem" more relevant than it truly is due to our disproportionately vivid memory of it.

If horses are not in the top five EPR from the fastest pace they have attempted, they have little shot of being at the wire. While there are exceptions to this and every other rule, on dirt, it is a good standard to remember whenever you are looking the artifact of the incremental deceleration of a horse with an e/l of -18 on the dirt.

[socantra]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

If horses are not in the top five EPR from the fastest pace they have attempted, they have little shot of being at the wire. While there are exceptions to this and every other rule, on dirt, it is a good standard to remember whenever you are looking the artifact of the incremental deceleration of a horse with an e/l of -18 on the dirt.

Since I rarely look at anything over five contenders and am primarily a win bettor, I can fully endorse Tim's advice, for once.

dick

[Neil S.]

Tim:

After reading several of your posts and getting the impression that you are not a supporter of the ideas of Howard Sartin, and you wish to challenge or shake the convictions of those who have benefited from the methodology, I flatly ask you why are you wasting your time as well as ours trying to disrupt those who wish to learn more? I have played horses more than 30 years and have been exposed to numerous "experts" such as yourself who when they are unmasked are actually losers who cannot come to grips with that reality, and seek to gain some vicarious pleasure from undermining others who possess the patience and the discipline to explore an idea that is not part of the mainstream (i.e. losers) way of doing things.
Granted, there are many ways to approach the great game of horse racing. Many may disagree on what is the best method, however your condescending statements and overall pompous attitude are not an acceptable way to disagree.
I can assure you that I have forgotten more about racing than you ever learned in the first place. I have embraced the methodology not as a dogma but as an effective tool in how to solve the complexities not only of horse racing, but those of daily life. You do not understand what this forum is truly about. It is not about you and your contrarian theories, it is a place where those who share an admiration for the work done by Dr. Sartin and his associates can meet and share their successes and failures without being judged or demeaned.
As a believer in free speech I would never try to censor you. Rather than do that, I will forever choose to ignore you and take part in more meaningful pursuits.

Neil

[Tim Y]

The book listed, and the lessons it teaches, promote the many sneaky psychological traps in decision making. Look it up as it is a very good read and will surprise all who look at its findings. If you can find out differently that what the researchers discovered, I would really like to hear that rebuttal. There are many other works just like it: our prejudices are not without effect on our decisions. That is the point this book and this post are trying to make.

As for Sartin, I am one of the purists: I look at the what the horse does and forget the rest. Pace and how horses handle it is all I ever have used once the epiphany hit.

[Tim Y]

http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group...ce/message/180