Thursday, January 8, 2009

[clore1030]

AQU

First race:

Not the best of situations here, a low level claimer and one where I've got the top three contenders all within 1 point on BL.

The top ranked #3 horse was just claimed for 10K and now running for 12.5. Has been doing OK at this level.

Second ranked #7 is tied with the above right now at 2/1, but it was claimed three times within the last year for 25K and is in for half that today. Looks like distressed merchandise to me and I'm not crazy about Philly Park shippers anyway.

Third ranked #1 is 5/1 presently and while dropping to an apparent low on claiming price, the odds makes it the most tempting of the three to moi.

[alydar_ David]

Looks like we duplicated today's thread.

Nice analysis, Clore.

I'm with you on #1 Precisely That at 5-1.

The only thing that really concerns me is #7 Supervision being the only Early horse in the race. But at 2-1...eh, no great shakes.

[clore1030]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

Looks like we duplicated today's thread.

Nice analysis, Clore.

I'm with you on #1 Precisely That at 5-1.

The only thing that really concerns me is #7 Supervision being the only Early horse in the race. But at 2-1...eh, no great shakes.

Great minds think alike. We were probably typing at the same time. When I started doing so, there was no other thread, but I was interrupted while doing the above post so I guess you beat me to the draw.

I never really cared for these bottom level races because generally good horses go up while bad ones go down. Years ago, all the system sellers said to always bet horses dropping in company, which didn't make sense to me.

So, I tracked 1,000 claiming races on the NY circuit on about two-dozen variables. Horses dropping in company did win 27% of these races, but horses going up in company won 26% and at better mutuels. For many years after, I wouldn't touch any claiming races under the 20K level.