Being a specialist - Pace and Cap

MIKE1121 · 10-19-2008, 11:34 PM

One thing I am looking very seriously at doing in 2009 is being a specialist. Look at all the different careers that people have, who makes the most money, the generalists or the specialists?. A general practitioner may earn a hundred grand a year but a cardio vascular surgeon will earn this in 6 months.

We all have race types or situations or race tracks that we do much better at than the others. By greatly restricting my play to my strongest plays thus specializing I see no reason why my roi shouldn't reach its highest potential.
The key is when you do bet you bet more on the races you do play. Its not the number of bets that you make, its the amount of money you have on winning bets that will determine your year end profits.

Talking to a friend at my local track we got to talking about racing, he seems to be some one who has a small negative roi on his total wagers over many many different types of races, but for HIM he has a very strong handle on maiden claiming races. If he would ONLY look at and bet maiden claiming races he would have a positive roi.I told him last night to ONLY concentrate on Maiden claiming races, if you look at 3 or 4 tracks you can create your own customized race card which you can specialize in and if you need to further specialize only look at your most profitable maiden claiming situations.

Time will tell if he has the discipline to follow thru with this. If he does follow thru with this he will be a winner. If it works for other occupations why wouldn't it work for racing?

Mike.

RichieP · 10-20-2008, 06:47 AM

Sharp post Mike and with the free falling economy and some rushing to the races looking for easy money on a chalk your words will be quite prescient imo.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luobOzreRq4

Charlie D · 10-20-2008, 11:45 AM

The problem for mid to large staking bettors is weak pools at most tracks, as a result these people are at Bel, SA etc competing against each other, which results in having an effect on returns there

Catch 22 kind of thing

Charlie D · 10-20-2008, 12:47 PM

Those Sheets, Thorograph people will probably all be the BC later this week Tim

I'll be at somewhere like Philly

Tim Y · 10-20-2008, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Those Sheets, Thorograph people will probably all be the BC later this week Tim

I'll be at somewhere like Philly

I was at the first Breeder's Cup and found only two wagers all day Ellio and a filly that ran second......agree: too many good horses to be able to separate them. Have to admit it is fun to watch however...

Charlie D · 10-20-2008, 01:12 PM

Too many unknowns this year Tim imo, but i'll enjoy watching, especially if "The Champ" struts his stuff

MIKE · 10-20-2008, 01:19 PM

---Would that be the great Gate Dancer in your picture Tim ????

Tim Y · 10-20-2008, 01:23 PM

yes the hooded wonder himself that must have given the trainer fits running second twice.

emilio840 · 10-21-2008, 04:09 AM

Tim. I met this guy at woodbine in 1995. I became race track friends with him. He knows about the Sartin group from a few years back. He was never a member. But he knew quiet alot. In the Spring he did not bet ONE race from woodbine. He played other tracks. This guy sometimes goes a whole week without betting a race at all the tracks. He does play 4 or 5 tracks a day.

The most bets he had ever had was 7 in one day that I know and he won them all. This guy can sit all day long at the table and will not get up to make a bet unless he really likes the horse. He has lots of PATIENCES.

He is a big beter. He bets $100 to win and $200 to place. He will not bet a horse that is going to pay $6 to win. It must pay more than $6.

He does make a good living but he has the nerves of STEEL. (His horses don't all win, but he makes lots of money from betting place.)

Tim have you noticed the most wed nights early horses do not win at Woodbine.

emilio

Tim Y · 10-21-2008, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by emilio840

Tim have you noticed the most wed nights early horses do not win at Woodbine.

People don't realize how many horses spook when confronted with shadows.
We used to race at night and I followed a subset of night time versus daytime winners and there was a significant number that couldn't go both ways. I asked around and it was that many jump shadows....MORE than I once thought.

Remember Dayjur? and that was in the daylight.

ALSO, if you go to the Woodbine web site, they will tell you the type of track maintenance carried out and often they power harrow on Tuesday making it deeper.

10-19-2008, 11:34 PM	#1
MIKE1121 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 131	Being a specialist One thing I am looking very seriously at doing in 2009 is being a specialist. Look at all the different careers that people have, who makes the most money, the generalists or the specialists?. A general practitioner may earn a hundred grand a year but a cardio vascular surgeon will earn this in 6 months. We all have race types or situations or race tracks that we do much better at than the others. By greatly restricting my play to my strongest plays thus specializing I see no reason why my roi shouldn't reach its highest potential. The key is when you do bet you bet more on the races you do play. Its not the number of bets that you make, its the amount of money you have on winning bets that will determine your year end profits. Talking to a friend at my local track we got to talking about racing, he seems to be some one who has a small negative roi on his total wagers over many many different types of races, but for HIM he has a very strong handle on maiden claiming races. If he would ONLY look at and bet maiden claiming races he would have a positive roi.I told him last night to ONLY concentrate on Maiden claiming races, if you look at 3 or 4 tracks you can create your own customized race card which you can specialize in and if you need to further specialize only look at your most profitable maiden claiming situations. Time will tell if he has the discipline to follow thru with this. If he does follow thru with this he will be a winner. If it works for other occupations why wouldn't it work for racing? Mike.

10-20-2008, 06:47 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Sharp post Mike and with the free falling economy and some rushing to the races looking for easy money on a chalk your words will be quite prescient imo. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luobOzreRq4 __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-20-2008, 11:45 AM	#3
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	The problem for mid to large staking bettors is weak pools at most tracks, as a result these people are at Bel, SA etc competing against each other, which results in having an effect on returns there Catch 22 kind of thing __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 10-20-2008 at 11:51 AM.

10-20-2008, 12:47 PM	#4
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Those Sheets, Thorograph people will probably all be the BC later this week Tim I'll be at somewhere like Philly __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 10-20-2008 at 12:51 PM.

10-20-2008, 01:12 PM	#6
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Too many unknowns this year Tim imo, but i'll enjoy watching, especially if "The Champ" struts his stuff __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

10-20-2008, 01:19 PM	#7
MIKE Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Rochester NY Posts: 196	---Would that be the great Gate Dancer in your picture Tim ????

10-20-2008, 01:23 PM	#8
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	yes the hooded wonder himself that must have given the trainer fits running second twice.

10-21-2008, 04:09 AM	#9
emilio840 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can Posts: 220	Tim. I met this guy at woodbine in 1995. I became race track friends with him. He knows about the Sartin group from a few years back. He was never a member. But he knew quiet alot. In the Spring he did not bet ONE race from woodbine. He played other tracks. This guy sometimes goes a whole week without betting a race at all the tracks. He does play 4 or 5 tracks a day. The most bets he had ever had was 7 in one day that I know and he won them all. This guy can sit all day long at the table and will not get up to make a bet unless he really likes the horse. He has lots of PATIENCES. He is a big beter. He bets $100 to win and $200 to place. He will not bet a horse that is going to pay $6 to win. It must pay more than $6. He does make a good living but he has the nerves of STEEL. (His horses don't all win, but he makes lots of money from betting place.) Tim have you noticed the most wed nights early horses do not win at Woodbine. emilio