The final frontier - Pace and Cap

Tim Y · 10-01-2008, 12:23 PM

Nope it isn't Star Trek, but the failing that many of us have in an
arena that is still not discussed here: HOW to effectively WAGER and
profit on all the hard earned handicapping lessons we have learned
over the years.

I was talking to Randy Goulding about this very thing last weekend. He
is our DRF columnist and agreed that the number one area of difficulty
in this game is in ONCE one knows the relative merits of the field, in
making the maximum from that knowledge.

One of the best I have found is in the area of the 2nd call maiden
fields mixed with a number of FTS's. One keys the top two 2nd call
horses with the many unknowns and the payoffs have been substantial. YOU
hook a known (2nd call winners) with the unknowns.

We need to discuss this "forgotten" area of the game more often
especially with the Breeder's Cup coming upon us.

case in point from yesterday at Philly: 2nd call maidens run 2 3 to a FTS
1st race - Philadelphia Park - September 30, 2008

Race Type: Maiden Claiming
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Sex Restriction: Fillies and Mares
Value of Race: $24,688
Distance: Six Furlongs
Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:12.06
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
8 Wanta Win Jose Luis Flores 17.40 5.40 5.40
4 Summer At Last Laureano Flores 4.40 2.80
2 Li'l Ava Lou Rolando Vasquez 3.40
Also ran: 5 - Changing Years , 12 - Royal Stone , 1 - Lookn' Delightful , 3 - Mizara , 11 - Libbys Prospect , 6 - Lucky Linda , 9 - A. P. Course , 10 - Lady Sinatra
Scratched horses: Sandie Silverrod

Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff
$2 Exacta 8-4 106.20
$2 Trifecta 8-4-2 314.80

Charlie D · 10-01-2008, 12:45 PM

Here are my contenders for Bel 2

I think the Earlies #1a and #2 may hook up and cancel each other, leaviing race open for #5 and #6

Although it could be ok, I don't really trust the #6's Line, so i make #5 my horse for the win, but how would you play the Exotics here???

Any input welcome

Tim Y · 10-01-2008, 12:49 PM

For the 6 lines 1 and 5 are mirror images of one another so this horse runs this way. lines 1,5 7 show a positive progression at the distance too.
Key the 6 to 1,2,4,5 .....4 has a shot to place or show

This is all moot until the odds appear however

clore1030 · 10-01-2008, 12:55 PM

Wish I could help you on the exotics question, but I have the race down to the same two contenders.

The 5 doesn't even show up in my top three contenders on the BL rankings, but my own match-up on the race has him as the likely beneficiary of the pace scenario.

Maybe I'll box the 6 and 5 in an exacta and leave it at that instead of going for one winning ticket. Given the track condition, I'm not going to toss money into too many races today unless I can spot a bias of which I can take advantage.

Charlie D · 10-01-2008, 12:59 PM

Lone Early in those two races, i reckon Tim

stalk today

Tim Y · 10-01-2008, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Lone Early in those two races, i reckon Tim

stalk today

no he went out in some of the fastest halves in this group and kept going

clore1030 · 10-01-2008, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y

no he went out in some of the fastest halves in this group and kept going

The tenacity that the 6 showed in her last race really impresses me. Were she rushed back to the races, I might be hesitant, but after spending 40K, Dutrow seems to be biding his time and the horse shows decent, if not exceptional works.

Tim Y · 10-01-2008, 01:10 PM

I am more inclined to think the two has the win and the 6 just gets nipped.

The more I look at it the one might run out be on the UNDER side of the exotic...There doesn't appear to be enough value in an exotic here.

Now the late scratch seals it

Tim Y · 10-01-2008, 01:28 PM

The only REAL strong mid pace pressure is now gone other than the 5 and that one cannot match up, so one gets an easy lead if he breaks well.

the 5 is a big UNDERLAY at those odds.

clore1030 · 10-01-2008, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tim Y

The only REAL strong mid pace pressure is now gone other than the 5 and that one cannot match up, so one gets an easy lead if he breaks well.

the 5 is a big UNDERLAY at those odds.

Once the scratch happened, I backed out of the race. glad that I did too. Now I'll wait for the fourth.

10-01-2008, 12:49 PM	#3
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	For the 6 lines 1 and 5 are mirror images of one another so this horse runs this way. lines 1,5 7 show a positive progression at the distance too. Key the 6 to 1,2,4,5 .....4 has a shot to place or show This is all moot until the odds appear however Last edited by Tim Y; 10-01-2008 at 01:00 PM.

10-01-2008, 12:55 PM	#4
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	Belmont second race 10/1/08 Wish I could help you on the exotics question, but I have the race down to the same two contenders. The 5 doesn't even show up in my top three contenders on the BL rankings, but my own match-up on the race has him as the likely beneficiary of the pace scenario. Maybe I'll box the 6 and 5 in an exacta and leave it at that instead of going for one winning ticket. Given the track condition, I'm not going to toss money into too many races today unless I can spot a bias of which I can take advantage. Last edited by clore1030; 10-01-2008 at 01:00 PM.

10-01-2008, 01:10 PM	#8
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	I am more inclined to think the two has the win and the 6 just gets nipped. The more I look at it the one might run out be on the UNDER side of the exotic...There doesn't appear to be enough value in an exotic here. Now the late scratch seals it Last edited by Tim Y; 10-01-2008 at 01:23 PM.

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10-01-2008, 12:23 PM	#1
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	The final frontier Nope it isn't Star Trek, but the failing that many of us have in an arena that is still not discussed here: HOW to effectively WAGER and profit on all the hard earned handicapping lessons we have learned over the years. I was talking to Randy Goulding about this very thing last weekend. He is our DRF columnist and agreed that the number one area of difficulty in this game is in ONCE one knows the relative merits of the field, in making the maximum from that knowledge. One of the best I have found is in the area of the 2nd call maiden fields mixed with a number of FTS's. One keys the top two 2nd call horses with the many unknowns and the payoffs have been substantial. YOU hook a known (2nd call winners) with the unknowns. We need to discuss this "forgotten" area of the game more often especially with the Breeder's Cup coming upon us. case in point from yesterday at Philly: 2nd call maidens run 2 3 to a FTS 1st race - Philadelphia Park - September 30, 2008 Race Type: Maiden Claiming Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward Sex Restriction: Fillies and Mares Value of Race: $24,688 Distance: Six Furlongs Surface Type: Dirt Track Condition: Fast Winning Time: 1:12.06 Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show 8 Wanta Win Jose Luis Flores 17.40 5.40 5.40 4 Summer At Last Laureano Flores 4.40 2.80 2 Li'l Ava Lou Rolando Vasquez 3.40 Also ran: 5 - Changing Years , 12 - Royal Stone , 1 - Lookn' Delightful , 3 - Mizara , 11 - Libbys Prospect , 6 - Lucky Linda , 9 - A. P. Course , 10 - Lady Sinatra Scratched horses: Sandie Silverrod Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff $2 Exacta 8-4 106.20 $2 Trifecta 8-4-2 314.80 Last edited by Tim Y; 10-01-2008 at 12:29 PM.

10-01-2008, 12:45 PM	#2
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Here are my contenders for Bel 2 I think the Earlies #1a and #2 may hook up and cancel each other, leaviing race open for #5 and #6 Although it could be ok, I don't really trust the #6's Line, so i make #5 my horse for the win, but how would you play the Exotics here??? Any input welcome Attached Images __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

10-01-2008, 12:59 PM	#5
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Lone Early in those two races, i reckon Tim stalk today __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

10-01-2008, 01:28 PM	#9
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	The only REAL strong mid pace pressure is now gone other than the 5 and that one cannot match up, so one gets an easy lead if he breaks well. the 5 is a big UNDERLAY at those odds.