Kentucky Derby last 11 runnings - The Marathon Method

[Bill Lyster]

The Hat said that any race over 10 furlongs and especially the Derby is won by the horse who ran against the best mile time (in races over one mile) and was closest to or on the lead at that point. I think being close was somewhere around no more than 2-3 lengths at the mile call. So you can take the chart call of the mile time in 9f races or deduct 6.4 seconds from the final time of races at 8.5 furlongs to get approximate mile split times. True contenders maintain or gain on the lead from the mile to the finish.

The reasoning for the mile time being key is that only those that had raced farther than a mile and were on or very close to the lead were the only ones with energy left to finish so early in their careers.

Several years ago I posted stats on Marathon races. You would have to search back. Either Marathon Races or dates within a day or two of Derby day in any year would find either the exact Hat Method.

So look, with the exception of the 80/1 outlier Rich Strike, all of the last 11 Derbys winners were close to the lead at the mile call and either maintained or gained position to win!!

Good luck this weekend






In this table the column labeled mile shows the horse position and L/B is lengths back; the next call is the STRetch followed by Lengths back

Kentucky Derby
Year Mile Time Mile L/B Str L/B Fin
2025 136.54 4 1 1 0 1
2024 137.46 1 0 1 0 1
2023 136.06 6 2 2 h 1
2022 136.96 15 7.5 3 4 1
2021 135.98 1 0 1 0 1
2020 135.02 1 0 1 0 1
2019 138.63 2 0 1 0 1
2018 137.35 1 0 1 0 1
2017 137.27 1 0 1 0 1
2016 135.61 2 0 1 0 1
2015 136.45 3 0 1 0 1

[DanBoals]

Is your chart the Kentucky Derby chart or is the chart of the prep race? Assuming this is the Kentucky Derby chart, 2020 was the Covid Derby, so I am guessing it was a lot faster since the horses were 4 months older. So that is probably not a valid race for predicting non September Derbies.

Using Howard math, throw out the slow in 2019 and the fast in 2016 and the Derby runs fairly consistent. Looks like 1:36.75 is the average. So within 3 lengths of that is a good indicator I take it.

[Bill Lyster]

The chart was from Churchill Downs the day when no spectators were allowed.
9/5/20.

Authentic was the winner

My data was from only horses that had won or placed in Grade 1 or grade 2 races, no off tracks, preferring 9f lines and grade 1 lines, especially when the race class was higher for grade 1 races than the grade 2 races. The only outlier that won that had not met the GR1/2 standard was Rich Strike who only ran well in a grade 3.

[Bill Lyster]

You might get in trouble using the average mile time. You should assess all entrant's mile times and positions for Saturday's race in case this lot of three year olds is really fast or really slow. Find the likely leaders and consider it good if they rally from 3 or less off at the mile call. You might have to check charts for positions in 8.5 furlong races to get a better understanding of time between calls that are shown vs somewhere in between.

[RichieP]

Good stuff Bill!!
Hat would tell me to try and find the leader at the mile for the Derby. That's you horse. Your "other" horse is one that "Power Moves" positionally up close into the mile while also being FAST.

Best of luck and I hope you and yours are doing great!

[kahunab]

Great Post Bill!

Thanks,

Dick

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Good stuff Bill!!
Hat would tell me to try and find the leader at the mile for the Derby. That's you horse. Your "other" horse is one that "Power Moves" positionally up close into the mile while also being FAST.

Best of luck and I hope you and yours are doing great!

Richie,

Good hearing from you. Thanks for the reminder on Power MOves.

Hope all is well Grandpa!!!

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

You might get in trouble using the average mile time. You should assess all entrant's mile times and positions for Saturday's race in case this lot of three year olds is really fast or really slow. Find the likely leaders and consider it good if they rally from 3 or less off at the mile call. You might have to check charts for positions in 8.5 furlong races to get a better understanding of time between calls that are shown vs somewhere in between.

You are certainly correct with the matchup in general.
You can't make generalizations, that completely defeats the matchup.

My hypothesis, which I have not proved one way or the other yet, is that the derby is a unique race and that it is more often run and won by its own rules and you can't really use other handicapping truisms on it.

You are probably correct.

But looking at the last 6-10 years or so, it seems like a whole bunch of them run very similar. And I get that the horses each year are different, but they are basically the top 18 US horses with the UAE derby winner and a japanese horse thrown in. Those 18 US horses tend to come from the same bloodlines and be trained by the same folks. I think there might be a pattern there to be discovered - kind of like those historians that say there are stages to every empire. Who knows? Maybe I am looking for something that isn't there... why I love handicapping, keeps the mind active.

[DanBoals]

Fulleffort is scratched I just saw on DRF, Ocelli draws in

[Bill Lyster]

So there goes one good idea. At least it saves money for the rest.

Thanks for the info.

Bill