Question for the group ( Pick 5 Payouts)

[darmar]

Wednesday ( 4 - 13) at Parx the early Pick 5 published payout was $178,200 and yet the
total pool amount was a mere $26,526. How does this happen, or better yet, where does
the payout come from???
Darryl

[omar]

They must've had a carry over.

Hey Darma, been busy posting on the value capper forum. Posted the 1st race in SA on Saturday. Gave them a $36 winner and a $264 ex. love the downhill 6.5 turf races.
what I didn't give them was the #7 in the 5th at GP that day. $60 horse. love lightly raced dirt sprinters that never routed before and today show up in a route and on the TURF. even better if they're up in class also. they must also be a good price, 8-1 or better. These trainers have been pulling this move since 1978. the public still hasn't caught on yet. Also caught the #5 in Tam 3 that day. Paid $18.60. It's rare to come across one, let alone two on same day.

The reason these horses do well is they use their early velocity to close with.
Look the whole key to this game is this:
A) be a loner, never follow the crowd, even if u use the same program. Think contrarian;
B) in route races[turf or dirt], look for your top 2-3 closers in race but focus on the ones with higher early velocity if they stand out from the rest of the entrants in race, and vice versa in sprint races;
C) and if Sartin was alive today I would tell him: look I like your method but I'm no going to bet a short priced horse unless I like 2-3 long priced[15-1 or more] horses and use my key in exactas to extract some value out of him/her.

I also almost fell down Saturday after hitting the 10th at Aqu and seeing the exacta come back $313.50 for a dollar. 4-1/30-1, Aqueduct?? are u kidding me?? the track that always underpays in the exotics. that 6 paid more to place[$38.80] than his odds! $17.80 to show AND no bridge jumper in race.

C'mon man, in the last race winner paid $120/8-5 and exacta only paid $268 for $2.
I don't care if they made a mistake, I wasn't going to give back the money!

Omar

[ranchwest]

Thanks for sharing, Omar. Refreshing.

On other forums, mostly what I get is "woe is me. Oh, the whales! The whales!" The database people and the speed cappers seem to be getting drenched. Pace makes the race.

[omar]

I thought the whales were in the stock market. Pace is the glue that bonds the other pieces together: Class, Form and Value. Think of horseracing as a jigsaw puzzle, you can't see the whole picture if your missing pieces.
Omar

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by omar

I thought the whales were in the stock market. Pace is the glue that bonds the other pieces together: Class, Form and Value. Think of horseracing as a jigsaw puzzle, you can't see the whole picture if your missing pieces.
Omar

Well said. In fact, this is one of the more profound statements I have ever read on racing.

[omar]

Case in point: Look at the results from Tampa’s last race on 4/14. 59-1 over 7/2 and exacta comes back $366.90 for a buck. Now compare that to Aqueduct’s last race on 4/8.
In fact I saw that the horse was a VTR, value tech ratio horse, meaning based on the programs odds, his odds was above the race’s random odds but the morning line and the programs own ml was higher, meaning a horse u should like but the public shouldn’t and they didn’t, letting him go off at 59-1. I think the program odds were 8-1 compared to the 20-1 ml and contention odds. I just didn’t use him in my exotics. Used the 4-5&6. Today Jack wasn’t nimble or quick, ran 2nd and 4th.
2 things: one this was a turf race and two this was not my local track. Hey I did catch the 8 $13.20 in EVD r6 and the 8-10 exacta $89.80. I play mostly turf because if it confuses the public that means higher prices and I don’t consider breeding or layoffs on the grass either.
Omar