Contender selection / New ideas relating to software input - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 07-06-2006, 11:27 AM

Gonna throw an idea out that I have been practicing for a couple of weeks now.

IF you are someone who MODELS corrolary readouts using Validator/ Speculator / Energy I think you might like it.

1) select pacelines as YOU normally do.

2) using the f9 tab enter the VISUAL or positional running style for the horse:

a) e - early
b) ep - early press
c) p - presser
d) s - sustained

you can also jot down the styles for the horses on paper. it's all good.

3) after selecting lines and styles for all the horses start with all the "e" horses and go to the line score/perceptor screen. For early you want the best Epr horse cause that's how early wins. make a note of who that is.

4) do the same for the guys marked "ep". here you want to focus a bit on Epr and Turn time. cause what are "early press" supposed to do when they run well? run early and then PRESS the 2f. Again note the best and jot him down.

5) same process for the "p" or presser horses. I am seeing that believe it or not Cpr is pretty good indicator of their performing well in todays race ok? Not sure why but maybe a "balance" of early/late is needed for these guys to do well. They can NOT be too far behind early. If you have a couple of pressers to evaluate consider the one with the BEST Cpr. Use Turn time as a tie breaker. Note the best of this group on paper.

6) lastly we do the same process for the "s" or sustained runners only with this group we focus on
a) hidden energy
b) Lpr
c) Lep
Because when this group runs well they do it LATE. Mark the best of the group.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

ok so now you have:

1) best "e" - early
2) best "ep" - early press
3) best "p" - Presser
4) best "s" - sustained

now since modeling at least as we know it involves 5 horses usually we have an open spot or "kicker" as I call him.

If you are willing to try this you WILL notice that in doing steps 3,4 and 5 a horse will be stuck in your MIND that you felt was really tough to eliminate. Just something about him kept "hitting" your mind that he "belonged" ok? I GUARANTEE this will happen in virtually every race.

Use the "kicker" for THIS horse. Bring him in as the 5th contender man.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now that you have 5 contenders representing today's matchup hide everyone else.

This is a COMBINING of software number crunching and intuition based contender selection.

Out of this work has come a possible new formula that does NOT exist currently. A "presser" formulaor something alomg those lines. There is one in Energy but not in the Val/Spec series. This would help specifically with the "ep" and "p" types.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

These are my ideas. Combining number crunching with an INTUITION based contender selection method.

Feel free to try it.

safe day
Richie

RichieP · 07-07-2006, 06:30 AM

This is tonight's race of the week done in matchup fashion. Only needed 4 spots for this

running styles noted on bottom of screen

safe day

dugoutgold · 07-07-2006, 01:18 PM

Just did this one at random. Check out the 2 E types. The presser will have to work hard today and the race seems carded for the S type to pick up the pieces.

RichieP · 07-07-2006, 02:56 PM

ok Cd race 8 you say.

Here is my breakdown horse by horse.

This gonna sound weird but I like keeping 6f lines with 6f lines at Cd because of the VERY fast 1c times there compared to say 5.5 and 6.5f. The 6f 1c are VERY much faster than normal so I will use all 6f lines and sacrifice a bit of "speed" for a better "comparison" look at the matchup ok?

These running styles are visual not computer generated.

horse 1 - line 1 - sustained
horse 2 - line 1 - sustained
horse 3 - line 1 - sustained
horse 4 - line 1 - sustained
horse 5 - no line
horse 6 - line 1 - early
horse 7 - no line
horse 8 - line 2 - early
horse 9 - line 2 - presser
horse 10 -line 2 - early
horse 11 -line 2 - sustained
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

How I match the groups is when I start with the earlies I will simply "hide" the non earlies and have only the early guys on the screen to start my matching. Remember this is matching against themselves as a group NOT the whole field.
I do the same thing for each "group"- keep the group and hide the others, makes 'group matching" very easy.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Matching the earlies ( 6,8,10) the 8 does not belong at all. It is a VERY close match tween the 6 and 10. so let's drop the 8 and keep 6 and 10 for now. we can "chop" someone out if we have too later.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Matching the early pressers I find NOBODY! So this group gets no representation which means now the 2 earlies 6 and 10 can be used and I still have my "kicker" available if I need him later.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Matching pressers I have just the 9 marked so this group is simply represented by the 9 horse. piece of cake.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Matching the sustained guys is some work. I have the 1,2,3,4,11 to match.
Glad I still have my "kicker" available cause the 1 and 4 BOTH need to get in the mix here in MY opinion man. The 4 is gonna get the jump on the 1 as far as closing against the solid early pace that should happen here. The 1 is more of a DEEP 3f closer. However the 1 if he kicks will be FLYING late.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Survivors:
Early - 6 and 10
Early Presser - none
Presser - 9
Sustained - 1 and 4

These are the horses that will remain in computer to track for models, bets etc etc.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Having no models or anything to go by other than the race itself to ME the 4 is projected winner of the race as he gets the jump on the 1 moving against the collapsing pace. The 1 is a sure fire 2nd win bet.

This Leparoux jock is gonna have to be a miracle worker to get the presser 9 home ahead of these 2. Who is this Frenchman anyway???
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Best of luck Doug. Let's see what shakes out in a few hours

Richie
screen shot attached of surviving contenders

RichieP · 07-07-2006, 03:23 PM

SAME lines
SAME contenders

Entered into Energy!

RichieP · 07-07-2006, 03:24 PM

rankings screen

RichieP · 07-07-2006, 03:24 PM

exdc screen

RichieP · 07-07-2006, 03:28 PM

SAME lines
SAME contenders

in Validator 3c

RichieP · 07-07-2006, 03:29 PM

Val3c

dugoutgold · 07-07-2006, 03:40 PM

Great post Rich, I need to remember when doing this that not all E s are created equal! The 4 shows now that I put it back in (yes I admit Im cheating here) that it can mover against what almost certainly seems like a collapsing pace.
Should be fun to see what happens with no model to go on

07-06-2006, 11:27 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Contender selection / New ideas relating to software input Gonna throw an idea out that I have been practicing for a couple of weeks now. IF you are someone who MODELS corrolary readouts using Validator/ Speculator / Energy I think you might like it. 1) select pacelines as YOU normally do. 2) using the f9 tab enter the VISUAL or positional running style for the horse: a) e - early b) ep - early press c) p - presser d) s - sustained you can also jot down the styles for the horses on paper. it's all good. 3) after selecting lines and styles for all the horses start with all the "e" horses and go to the line score/perceptor screen. For early you want the best Epr horse cause that's how early wins. make a note of who that is. 4) do the same for the guys marked "ep". here you want to focus a bit on Epr and Turn time. cause what are "early press" supposed to do when they run well? run early and then PRESS the 2f. Again note the best and jot him down. 5) same process for the "p" or presser horses. I am seeing that believe it or not Cpr is pretty good indicator of their performing well in todays race ok? Not sure why but maybe a "balance" of early/late is needed for these guys to do well. They can NOT be too far behind early. If you have a couple of pressers to evaluate consider the one with the BEST Cpr. Use Turn time as a tie breaker. Note the best of this group on paper. 6) lastly we do the same process for the "s" or sustained runners only with this group we focus on a) hidden energy b) Lpr c) Lep Because when this group runs well they do it LATE. Mark the best of the group. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ok so now you have: 1) best "e" - early 2) best "ep" - early press 3) best "p" - Presser 4) best "s" - sustained now since modeling at least as we know it involves 5 horses usually we have an open spot or "kicker" as I call him. If you are willing to try this you WILL notice that in doing steps 3,4 and 5 a horse will be stuck in your MIND that you felt was really tough to eliminate. Just something about him kept "hitting" your mind that he "belonged" ok? I GUARANTEE this will happen in virtually every race. Use the "kicker" for THIS horse. Bring him in as the 5th contender man. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Now that you have 5 contenders representing today's matchup hide everyone else. This is a COMBINING of software number crunching and intuition based contender selection. Out of this work has come a possible new formula that does NOT exist currently. A "presser" formulaor something alomg those lines. There is one in Energy but not in the Val/Spec series. This would help specifically with the "ep" and "p" types. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ These are my ideas. Combining number crunching with an INTUITION based contender selection method. Feel free to try it. safe day Richie __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-07-2006, 06:30 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	This is tonight's race of the week done in matchup fashion. Only needed 4 spots for this running styles noted on bottom of screen safe day Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-07-2006, 01:18 PM	#3
dugoutgold Grade 1 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 206	todays 8th at cd using richies matchup Just did this one at random. Check out the 2 E types. The presser will have to work hard today and the race seems carded for the S type to pick up the pieces. Attached Images

07-07-2006, 02:56 PM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Very cool Doug! ok Cd race 8 you say. Here is my breakdown horse by horse. This gonna sound weird but I like keeping 6f lines with 6f lines at Cd because of the VERY fast 1c times there compared to say 5.5 and 6.5f. The 6f 1c are VERY much faster than normal so I will use all 6f lines and sacrifice a bit of "speed" for a better "comparison" look at the matchup ok? These running styles are visual not computer generated. horse 1 - line 1 - sustained horse 2 - line 1 - sustained horse 3 - line 1 - sustained horse 4 - line 1 - sustained horse 5 - no line horse 6 - line 1 - early horse 7 - no line horse 8 - line 2 - early horse 9 - line 2 - presser horse 10 -line 2 - early horse 11 -line 2 - sustained ----------------------------------------------------------------------- How I match the groups is when I start with the earlies I will simply "hide" the non earlies and have only the early guys on the screen to start my matching. Remember this is matching against themselves as a group NOT the whole field. I do the same thing for each "group"- keep the group and hide the others, makes 'group matching" very easy. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Matching the earlies ( 6,8,10) the 8 does not belong at all. It is a VERY close match tween the 6 and 10. so let's drop the 8 and keep 6 and 10 for now. we can "chop" someone out if we have too later. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Matching the early pressers I find NOBODY! So this group gets no representation which means now the 2 earlies 6 and 10 can be used and I still have my "kicker" available if I need him later. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Matching pressers I have just the 9 marked so this group is simply represented by the 9 horse. piece of cake. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Matching the sustained guys is some work. I have the 1,2,3,4,11 to match. Glad I still have my "kicker" available cause the 1 and 4 BOTH need to get in the mix here in MY opinion man. The 4 is gonna get the jump on the 1 as far as closing against the solid early pace that should happen here. The 1 is more of a DEEP 3f closer. However the 1 if he kicks will be FLYING late. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Survivors: Early - 6 and 10 Early Presser - none Presser - 9 Sustained - 1 and 4 These are the horses that will remain in computer to track for models, bets etc etc. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Having no models or anything to go by other than the race itself to ME the 4 is projected winner of the race as he gets the jump on the 1 moving against the collapsing pace. The 1 is a sure fire 2nd win bet. This Leparoux jock is gonna have to be a miracle worker to get the presser 9 home ahead of these 2. Who is this Frenchman anyway??? -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Best of luck Doug. Let's see what shakes out in a few hours Richie screen shot attached of surviving contenders Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-07-2006, 03:23 PM	#5
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Energy! SAME lines SAME contenders Entered into Energy! Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-07-2006, 03:24 PM	#6
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	rankings screen Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-07-2006, 03:24 PM	#7
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	exdc screen Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-07-2006, 03:28 PM	#8
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Val3c SAME lines SAME contenders in Validator 3c Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-07-2006, 03:29 PM	#9
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Val3c Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-07-2006, 03:40 PM	#10
dugoutgold Grade 1 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 206	Think your Rich:) Great post Rich, I need to remember when doing this that not all E s are created equal! The 4 shows now that I put it back in (yes I admit Im cheating here) that it can mover against what almost certainly seems like a collapsing pace. Should be fun to see what happens with no model to go on Attached Images

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