Churchill Downs Race 10 - Pace and Cap

Houndog · 06-02-2006, 07:43 PM

This is the ARISTDES BREEDRS CUP for Saturday June 3. This horse features Lost In The Fog. My screenshots in Energy.

Houndog · 06-02-2006, 07:44 PM

The second screenshot.

Houndog · 06-02-2006, 07:46 PM

Screens 3 for Churchill race 10

Houndog · 06-02-2006, 07:51 PM

I know Lost In the Fog is a very good horse, but I will try to beat him with #7Kelly's Landing. I don't think the Exacta is a good play unless LITF runs out. If you believe that is possible you could use #4 Level Playingfield in your exacta's. If the pace falls apart on the front end he will be coming late.

RichieP · 06-02-2006, 08:58 PM

Hey Dog
see this is great man.

I do NOT get "Fog" the # 5 horse ranked in top 2 on EITHER Paragon. YET he is the # 1 Total energy horse - # 1 Uxr horse - the 0.00 Muv horse.

Amazing. I can't wait to see this race run.

Thank you so much for taking the time to post it up. I never woulda looked at it man.

Pace lines are the last line on all 4 contenders

screen shots

RichieP · 06-02-2006, 08:58 PM

next shot

RichieP · 06-02-2006, 08:59 PM

last screen

Houndog · 06-03-2006, 12:04 AM

Richie, initially used the last line for LITF and Kelly's Landing. Also used the last line for Exiting Metro and Prado.I decided that LITF and Kelly's Landing will show better so I went 3 back on these. I rated Exiting Metro off of the last race as well as Prado. Naturally when I did this these 2 don't show up as well. Of the 3 horses exiting the Tandem I felt Kelly had the most potential to improve.

The #1 Yes was strictly a look to make sure I didn't miss anything. The #4 Level I rated off of his last race. I think you would have to go all the way back to his August 27th race for him to rate well here. This could be a pieces horse for exotics. This is strictly a judgement call I made by doing this. As this shows the Variegate predictor can change depending on horses entered and paceline selection.

Houndog · 06-03-2006, 12:23 AM

Richie, you have probably noticed this to. If their is a small difference from the 0.00 Muv horse and the horses following that number the program thinks it sets it up for a more sustained type horse. If their is a larger difference between the 0.00 MUV and the following horse it will come uo with an early or early/presser type of Variegate predictor.

The Variegate predictor definitely revolves around the 0.00 MUV horse and the other horses and their MUV ratings following it.

Forego · 06-03-2006, 08:54 PM

It looks like it always comes back to how we select pacelines. Each of us in our own kind of unique way.

The slightest variation in selection and readouts can really be altered significantly. Yet the core strenght of readout for the winning horse remains.

Houndog has the winner completely dominating everything.

RichieP has the winner top in every single readout except 3rd fraction energy percentile. It is quite amazing to me also that the 5 fails to hit the top 2 on either paragon when you stop and actually look at how strong the 5 is on all the other readouts.

Quite interesting and appreciated.

06-02-2006, 07:44 PM	#2
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Screenshot 2 The second screenshot. Attached Images

06-02-2006, 07:46 PM	#3
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Screens 3 Screens 3 for Churchill race 10 Attached Images

06-02-2006, 08:58 PM	#5
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Hey Dog see this is great man. I do NOT get "Fog" the # 5 horse ranked in top 2 on EITHER Paragon. YET he is the # 1 Total energy horse - # 1 Uxr horse - the 0.00 Muv horse. Amazing. I can't wait to see this race run. Thank you so much for taking the time to post it up. I never woulda looked at it man. Pace lines are the last line on all 4 contenders screen shots Attached Images

06-02-2006, 08:58 PM	#6
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	next shot Attached Images

06-03-2006, 08:54 PM	#10
Forego Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 639	paceline selection It looks like it always comes back to how we select pacelines. Each of us in our own kind of unique way. The slightest variation in selection and readouts can really be altered significantly. Yet the core strenght of readout for the winning horse remains. Houndog has the winner completely dominating everything. RichieP has the winner top in every single readout except 3rd fraction energy percentile. It is quite amazing to me also that the 5 fails to hit the top 2 on either paragon when you stop and actually look at how strong the 5 is on all the other readouts. Quite interesting and appreciated.

06-02-2006, 07:43 PM	#1
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Churchill Downs Race 10 This is the ARISTDES BREEDRS CUP for Saturday June 3. This horse features Lost In The Fog. My screenshots in Energy. Attached Images Last edited by Houndog; 06-02-2006 at 07:53 PM.

06-02-2006, 07:51 PM	#4
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Selection Churchill Race 10 I know Lost In the Fog is a very good horse, but I will try to beat him with #7Kelly's Landing. I don't think the Exacta is a good play unless LITF runs out. If you believe that is possible you could use #4 Level Playingfield in your exacta's. If the pace falls apart on the front end he will be coming late.

06-02-2006, 08:59 PM	#7
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	last screen Attached Images

06-03-2006, 12:04 AM	#8
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Richie, initially used the last line for LITF and Kelly's Landing. Also used the last line for Exiting Metro and Prado.I decided that LITF and Kelly's Landing will show better so I went 3 back on these. I rated Exiting Metro off of the last race as well as Prado. Naturally when I did this these 2 don't show up as well. Of the 3 horses exiting the Tandem I felt Kelly had the most potential to improve. The #1 Yes was strictly a look to make sure I didn't miss anything. The #4 Level I rated off of his last race. I think you would have to go all the way back to his August 27th race for him to rate well here. This could be a pieces horse for exotics. This is strictly a judgement call I made by doing this. As this shows the Variegate predictor can change depending on horses entered and paceline selection.

06-03-2006, 12:23 AM	#9
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Richie, you have probably noticed this to. If their is a small difference from the 0.00 Muv horse and the horses following that number the program thinks it sets it up for a more sustained type horse. If their is a larger difference between the 0.00 MUV and the following horse it will come uo with an early or early/presser type of Variegate predictor. The Variegate predictor definitely revolves around the 0.00 MUV horse and the other horses and their MUV ratings following it.

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