Being a specialist - Pace and Cap

MIKE1121 · 10-19-2008, 11:34 PM

One thing I am looking very seriously at doing in 2009 is being a specialist. Look at all the different careers that people have, who makes the most money, the generalists or the specialists?. A general practitioner may earn a hundred grand a year but a cardio vascular surgeon will earn this in 6 months.

We all have race types or situations or race tracks that we do much better at than the others. By greatly restricting my play to my strongest plays thus specializing I see no reason why my roi shouldn't reach its highest potential.
The key is when you do bet you bet more on the races you do play. Its not the number of bets that you make, its the amount of money you have on winning bets that will determine your year end profits.

Talking to a friend at my local track we got to talking about racing, he seems to be some one who has a small negative roi on his total wagers over many many different types of races, but for HIM he has a very strong handle on maiden claiming races. If he would ONLY look at and bet maiden claiming races he would have a positive roi.I told him last night to ONLY concentrate on Maiden claiming races, if you look at 3 or 4 tracks you can create your own customized race card which you can specialize in and if you need to further specialize only look at your most profitable maiden claiming situations.

Time will tell if he has the discipline to follow thru with this. If he does follow thru with this he will be a winner. If it works for other occupations why wouldn't it work for racing?

Mike.

RichieP · 10-20-2008, 06:47 AM

Sharp post Mike and with the free falling economy and some rushing to the races looking for easy money on a chalk your words will be quite prescient imo.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luobOzreRq4

Charlie D · 10-20-2008, 11:45 AM

The problem for mid to large staking bettors is weak pools at most tracks, as a result these people are at Bel, SA etc competing against each other, which results in having an effect on returns there

Catch 22 kind of thing

Tim Y · 10-20-2008, 12:12 PM

2nd call maiden are running over 1.35 in ROI at every track.

You have to find two things in your survey of tracks:1) does my STYLE predict races here and then in that subset 2) do those winners PAY enough?

Pimlico quailifed for the first and failed the second test, The Fair Grounds passed the first and only turf races passed the second. Being a FRONT END specialist, I look for courses that support that and SO FAR the new Anita surface does the same thing.

In the Legends race on Saturday, Sandy Hawley's mount was a stand out on that idea as shown. IT is the HORSE and nothing else.
4th race - Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 18, 2008

Off at: 2:13 Race Type: Allowance Optional Claiming Video Race Replay
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Value of Race: $48,200
Distance: Seven Furlongs
Surface Type: All Weather Track Track Condition: Fast
Winning Time: 1:21.03
Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
2 Tribal Chief Sandy Hawley 7.80 4.00 3.20
1 Dee Dee's Legacy Jerry D. Bailey 5.20 3.60
5 Scandalous Gary L. Stevens 4.00
Also ran: 3 - Swift Demand , 7 - Major Smoke , 4 - Kalookan Event , 6 - Waafi , 8 - Stathy

tfm · 10-20-2008, 12:23 PM

I think the notion of 'specialist' in handicapping is misguided. Perhaps there are some types of races that one prefers over others. Or it could be the case that for a given period of time one's performance in a given category stands out. Whatever the case, if you have the requisite skill, you can make money betting any type of surface or condition. Of course, this doesn't mean that selectivity is thrown to the wind.

This from someone who is a 'turf specialist'; more specifically a 'turf sprint specialist'. But this is only because I prefer turf to dirt and sprints to routes. But I'm equally adept on POLY, and do quite well on certain dirt tracks (FG, for example).

Tim Y · 10-20-2008, 12:33 PM

Small venues: WHO are you competing against? Not sheets players or Thorograph fellows.

That is where the big payoffs regularly happen.

Charlie D · 10-20-2008, 12:47 PM

Those Sheets, Thorograph people will probably all be the BC later this week Tim

I'll be at somewhere like Philly

Tim Y · 10-20-2008, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Those Sheets, Thorograph people will probably all be the BC later this week Tim

I'll be at somewhere like Philly

I was at the first Breeder's Cup and found only two wagers all day Ellio and a filly that ran second......agree: too many good horses to be able to separate them. Have to admit it is fun to watch however...

Charlie D · 10-20-2008, 01:12 PM

Too many unknowns this year Tim imo, but i'll enjoy watching, especially if "The Champ" struts his stuff

MIKE · 10-20-2008, 01:19 PM

---Would that be the great Gate Dancer in your picture Tim ????

10-19-2008, 11:34 PM	#1
MIKE1121 Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 131	Being a specialist One thing I am looking very seriously at doing in 2009 is being a specialist. Look at all the different careers that people have, who makes the most money, the generalists or the specialists?. A general practitioner may earn a hundred grand a year but a cardio vascular surgeon will earn this in 6 months. We all have race types or situations or race tracks that we do much better at than the others. By greatly restricting my play to my strongest plays thus specializing I see no reason why my roi shouldn't reach its highest potential. The key is when you do bet you bet more on the races you do play. Its not the number of bets that you make, its the amount of money you have on winning bets that will determine your year end profits. Talking to a friend at my local track we got to talking about racing, he seems to be some one who has a small negative roi on his total wagers over many many different types of races, but for HIM he has a very strong handle on maiden claiming races. If he would ONLY look at and bet maiden claiming races he would have a positive roi.I told him last night to ONLY concentrate on Maiden claiming races, if you look at 3 or 4 tracks you can create your own customized race card which you can specialize in and if you need to further specialize only look at your most profitable maiden claiming situations. Time will tell if he has the discipline to follow thru with this. If he does follow thru with this he will be a winner. If it works for other occupations why wouldn't it work for racing? Mike.

10-20-2008, 06:47 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Sharp post Mike and with the free falling economy and some rushing to the races looking for easy money on a chalk your words will be quite prescient imo. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luobOzreRq4 __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-20-2008, 11:45 AM	#3
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	The problem for mid to large staking bettors is weak pools at most tracks, as a result these people are at Bel, SA etc competing against each other, which results in having an effect on returns there Catch 22 kind of thing __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 10-20-2008 at 11:51 AM.

10-20-2008, 12:12 PM	#4
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	2nd call maiden are running over 1.35 in ROI at every track. You have to find two things in your survey of tracks:1) does my STYLE predict races here and then in that subset 2) do those winners PAY enough? Pimlico quailifed for the first and failed the second test, The Fair Grounds passed the first and only turf races passed the second. Being a FRONT END specialist, I look for courses that support that and SO FAR the new Anita surface does the same thing. In the Legends race on Saturday, Sandy Hawley's mount was a stand out on that idea as shown. IT is the HORSE and nothing else. 4th race - Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 18, 2008 Off at: 2:13 Race Type: Allowance Optional Claiming Video Race Replay Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward Value of Race: $48,200 Distance: Seven Furlongs Surface Type: All Weather Track Track Condition: Fast Winning Time: 1:21.03 Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show 2 Tribal Chief Sandy Hawley 7.80 4.00 3.20 1 Dee Dee's Legacy Jerry D. Bailey 5.20 3.60 5 Scandalous Gary L. Stevens 4.00 Also ran: 3 - Swift Demand , 7 - Major Smoke , 4 - Kalookan Event , 6 - Waafi , 8 - Stathy Attached Images

10-20-2008, 12:23 PM	#5
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	I think the notion of 'specialist' in handicapping is misguided. Perhaps there are some types of races that one prefers over others. Or it could be the case that for a given period of time one's performance in a given category stands out. Whatever the case, if you have the requisite skill, you can make money betting any type of surface or condition. Of course, this doesn't mean that selectivity is thrown to the wind. This from someone who is a 'turf specialist'; more specifically a 'turf sprint specialist'. But this is only because I prefer turf to dirt and sprints to routes. But I'm equally adept on POLY, and do quite well on certain dirt tracks (FG, for example). Last edited by tfm; 10-20-2008 at 12:25 PM.

10-20-2008, 12:33 PM	#6
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Small venues: WHO are you competing against? Not sheets players or Thorograph fellows. That is where the big payoffs regularly happen.

10-20-2008, 12:47 PM	#7
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Those Sheets, Thorograph people will probably all be the BC later this week Tim I'll be at somewhere like Philly __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 10-20-2008 at 12:51 PM.

10-20-2008, 01:12 PM	#9
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Too many unknowns this year Tim imo, but i'll enjoy watching, especially if "The Champ" struts his stuff __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

10-20-2008, 01:19 PM	#10
MIKE Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Rochester NY Posts: 196	---Would that be the great Gate Dancer in your picture Tim ????

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