Recent Modelling of High-Level Factors, including from L/P screen

[Ted Craven]

For review and discussion, here is a recent model of July races tracking hit rates for various high-level factors, including those from the L/P screen.

MasterTemplate6-Saratoga 2024 THRU 07.24.xlsx

Bill's notes:

I checked the blue arrow status of these 60 races. In 44 out of 60 either the win or place horse had a green arrow. Of the 12 maiden races 9 qualified and 35/48 non maidens qualified, so basically the same percentage, about 73 %. This info is on the ALL tab.

On the four factor front – see the KEY tab

24/30 in non maiden dirt races had all four factors and 3 were three factor horses. Interestingly, it was CSR rank that prevented these three. when asked for an adjustment the ranks were 3-4-2

14/19 in NM turf races had 4 factors, with 1 with only 3. That horse had 4 races, three similar and one race where the jockey was lost. adjustment did not change the ranks. Probably would have if the jockey finished.

5/6 maiden dirt races with 4 factors.

5/6 maiden turf races with 4 factors.

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I just added the missing two days thru yesterday. Not much changing. The Arrow horses, the 4 figure horses, including the 3 figure horses with ?-able CSR.

The arrow info is on the ALL panel, the cumulative info w/o arrow info is in the THRU 7.24