Tampa Bay 2/5/14 R-9 - Pace and Cap

Segwin · 02-04-2014, 09:47 AM

Was going over this race and was interested in what the BL/BL had to say.

First the cast:

Segwin · 02-04-2014, 09:49 AM

The rest of the field

Segwin · 02-04-2014, 09:52 AM

Segs & TPR:

Segwin · 02-04-2014, 10:00 AM

It looks to be a fast pace and it will be a fight between the 3 & 7.

What I found interesting is that RDSS has the #6 on top in the BL/BL however looking at the pp for this horse it has never been faced with the type of fast pace it will see today. The 8 has faced times like these but hasn't been able to finish. The 2 has also faced these times but didn't finish well either.

It all maybe moot as they are predicting showers for tomorrow.

Interested in what others see.

Thanks.

Bill Lyster · 02-04-2014, 01:53 PM

Agree that the 3 and 7 will duke it out. They have run fast three times, fought all the way with the 3 winning each time. No reason to think that will change as both have run as fast as 55.0 at this distance. Need someone to break them up, so I see the 2 who is most sustained and only running its 2nd turf sprint as possible interloper. Note it closed 7-5-4-3 in last and none of the other P/SP types looks to be able to close against fast early fractions. The 5 has best 5f time of about 57.4 against slower places, never ran against this fast a pace and is a ? mark (WO hardly ever runs this fast early in turf sprints, so until the horse faces this pace it remains an outsider for me.)

Value wise take the 2 to win, box 2-3-7 in exacta and tri and hope for a price.

All the best,

Segwin · 02-04-2014, 02:16 PM

Thanks for the analysis Bill.

One other fly in the ointment is Jamie Ness, who's been a golden boy as of late, is the trainer of 8 which is going off at 4.

Should be interesting to see how the betting plays out.

Bill Lyster · 02-04-2014, 03:35 PM

i understand what you are saying but horse has only won on the lead or very near to it - E or e/p - so he could help compromise either or both of the 3 and 7 which only helps the 2 IMHO. Look at last race for the 8 when vs hot pace it lost position and lengths against those two ( 3 and 7 )

Tom Hanks, "... there is no crying in baseball..."

raceman5 · 02-05-2014, 08:59 AM

If the race stays on the turf I like 8-3

barryt · 02-05-2014, 12:41 PM

Looks like race is on Tf. So what 's the consensus

#8 and 9 are early scratches...

Regarding #6 being on top whereas inspection says #3 or#7. I have found this quite often even manually doing the Matchup. . So I then use Speed points to resolve the situation. Typically software programs may search for the best time without considering ESP.( Having said that an S1 is a very good bet.)
Barryt

atkinsrr · 02-05-2014, 02:24 PM

looks like the 3, 7, 2, tandem may repeat...can't consider #6 because he is first time turf and I don't different surfaces for pace lines so 6 is automatic throwout...he will just have to beat me....looks like 3 and 7 hookin' up again and one of them should win...looks like the 2 needs more distance to me..if he would make a move in the turn ??? maybe, but he doesn't start running til' he gets in the stretch and at 5F he doesn't seem to have enough ground to make is late run count...if they get a little rain that might help him...looks chaulky 3 or 7 wins it...prices to low, looks like a no bet race to me

02-04-2014, 09:47 AM	#1
Segwin Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 624	Tampa Bay 2/5/14 R-9 Was going over this race and was interested in what the BL/BL had to say. First the cast: Attached Images __________________ Terry

02-04-2014, 09:49 AM	#2
Segwin Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 624	Continued The rest of the field Attached Images __________________ Terry

02-04-2014, 10:00 AM	#4
Segwin Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 624	It looks to be a fast pace and it will be a fight between the 3 & 7. What I found interesting is that RDSS has the #6 on top in the BL/BL however looking at the pp for this horse it has never been faced with the type of fast pace it will see today. The 8 has faced times like these but hasn't been able to finish. The 2 has also faced these times but didn't finish well either. It all maybe moot as they are predicting showers for tomorrow. Interested in what others see. Thanks. __________________ Terry

02-05-2014, 12:41 PM	#9
barryt Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 133	Looks like race is on Tf. So what 's the consensus #8 and 9 are early scratches... Regarding #6 being on top whereas inspection says #3 or#7. I have found this quite often even manually doing the Matchup. . So I then use Speed points to resolve the situation. Typically software programs may search for the best time without considering ESP.( Having said that an S1 is a very good bet.) Barryt Last edited by barryt; 02-05-2014 at 12:53 PM.

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02-04-2014, 09:52 AM	#3
Segwin Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 624	Continued Segs & TPR: Attached Images __________________ Terry

02-04-2014, 01:53 PM	#5
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,499	Agree that the 3 and 7 will duke it out. They have run fast three times, fought all the way with the 3 winning each time. No reason to think that will change as both have run as fast as 55.0 at this distance. Need someone to break them up, so I see the 2 who is most sustained and only running its 2nd turf sprint as possible interloper. Note it closed 7-5-4-3 in last and none of the other P/SP types looks to be able to close against fast early fractions. The 5 has best 5f time of about 57.4 against slower places, never ran against this fast a pace and is a ? mark (WO hardly ever runs this fast early in turf sprints, so until the horse faces this pace it remains an outsider for me.) Value wise take the 2 to win, box 2-3-7 in exacta and tri and hope for a price. All the best,

02-04-2014, 02:16 PM	#6
Segwin Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Cleveland, Ohio Posts: 624	Thanks for the analysis Bill. One other fly in the ointment is Jamie Ness, who's been a golden boy as of late, is the trainer of 8 which is going off at 4. Should be interesting to see how the betting plays out. __________________ Terry

02-04-2014, 03:35 PM	#7
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,499	i understand what you are saying but horse has only won on the lead or very near to it - E or e/p - so he could help compromise either or both of the 3 and 7 which only helps the 2 IMHO. Look at last race for the 8 when vs hot pace it lost position and lengths against those two ( 3 and 7 ) Tom Hanks, "... there is no crying in baseball..."

02-05-2014, 08:59 AM	#8
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,363	Tampa If the race stays on the turf I like 8-3

02-05-2014, 02:24 PM	#10
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	looks like the 3, 7, 2, tandem may repeat...can't consider #6 because he is first time turf and I don't different surfaces for pace lines so 6 is automatic throwout...he will just have to beat me....looks like 3 and 7 hookin' up again and one of them should win...looks like the 2 needs more distance to me..if he would make a move in the turn ??? maybe, but he doesn't start running til' he gets in the stretch and at 5F he doesn't seem to have enough ground to make is late run count...if they get a little rain that might help him...looks chaulky 3 or 7 wins it...prices to low, looks like a no bet race to me