CT 6th -- 1/22/2013

[alydar_ David]

After reading Dave Edwards' post http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...8332#post88332

I thought it might be fun to put up a race and see who runs with it and where it goes.

Charles Town Race 6

CLAIMING. 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $11,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. Weight, 121 lbs.
Non-winners of a race since December 22, 2012 Allowed 2 lbs.
A race since November 22, 2012 Allowed 4 lbs.
Claiming Price $5,000, if for $4,500, allowed 1 lb.
(W V A Races Not Considered In Eligibility). (09:31 PM) (11)

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...ate=2013-01-22

Here's some trainer information to chew on:

#1A Do Dolan
Coming off a layoff = 12%
4th off the claim = 10%
Won last sprint = 10%
Track, distance and surface = 8/48 or 16%
With Jockey = 1/6 or 16%

#4 Harlan's Crown
2nd sprint off layoff = 20%
Won sprint 2 races back = 19%
Track, distance and surface = 65/299 or 21%
With Jockey = 134/512 or 26%

#5 Movin to Utopia
Won sprint 2 races back = 21%
Track, distance and surface = 13/44 or 29%
With Jockey = 32/100 or 32%

#6 Mellieha Bay
Won sprint 4 races ago = 17%
Track, distance and surface = 17/57 or 29%
With Jockey = 0/3 or 0%

#9 Garden Gate
First sprint off the claim = 25%
Track, distance and surface = 23/103 or 22%
With Jockey = 34/169 or 20%

Toss Out:
#7 Hey U = Slow, 2nd sprint off layoff 8%
#8 Desert Baby = Slow, repeats sprint win 8%

Pay Attention:
#5 Movin to Utopia = Back to Ramirez who won last time he was up.
32% with trainer
8-1 Morning Line Odds

Of the eleven horse field I've eliminated two horses. You might consider them contenders.

Your mission, should you decide to accept it, is to pick the pacelines and contenders.

[partsnut]

alydar_David :

After reading Dave Edwards' post http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...8332#post88332

I thought it might be fun to put up a race and see who runs with it and where it goes.

Charles Town Race 6
------------------------------------------------------------------
As usual, you make this an interesting article and being as it does not pertain to RDSS and or the Sartin Methodology I thought it might be acceptable to give my opinion as to where this race will go.

Here is the horse I would bet at odds of at least 5-1 or better.
I used no software here. I just used the racing form and adhered to some of Ray Taulbots methods.

Please view my pick at the following links. I seems that there is a quota imposed on my attachments.

https://www.box.com/s/3icvt0318wz90htbm3p6

https://www.box.com/s/mmyilw6rcb7aa73dnh6b

[Bill V.]

Hi David
lots of isssues here with horses trying both CT and sprinting

Here is phase 1

would not be shocked if
a horse with no lines won

My notes
6.5 Cl5000 Nw4 life

H1 Nf at anything longer than 5.0 3-29 and 1-1
H1A EP3 No CT races line 1 3-17 and 3-17 173.5
H2 EP1 Router No CT races 3-26 and 2-13 172.7
H3 P2 line 1 3-15 and 3-13 168.4
H4 EP3 line 1 vs open 8's line 2 3-14 and 3-9 176.0
H5 EP5 line 2 excuse Pen line 1 3-13 and 3-12 171.5
H6 E5 No CT form last 3 races poor 3-11 and 3-10
H7 E3 NTL snail last public 4.5 wo? 3-32 and 2-11 20/1 ML
H8 S1 line 1 3-23 and 1-10 162.5
H9 E1 router 3-12 and 2-6 171.0
H10 S1 line 3 last against open 5000 3-12 and 3-12

[Ted Craven]

Bill,

Re the #6 horse, as the only confirmed (and decent) Early sprinter in the race, are you not concerned it may be able to slow things down and hold its early advantage through the end today? Use any 'good' line for a significant 1st and 2nd call advantage over everyone else.

Was the last race (its only route) a 'poor' race?

Also, in your view, why does no CT experience downgrade it today?



Also David, I appreciate that these RDSS analyses do not address your opening trainer related thesis - so it will be interesting to see if there is a co-relation, or not, between the trainer aspects and the velocity/energy/matchup aspects.

Good luck!

Ted

[Bill V.]

Hi Ted

I just have too many questions about the 6 horse
one of them is I can't see the position and or the beaten l of line
3 although the horse gets a very fast 94 EPR so I can take a guess
it ran its usual Early style




CT? One of the main guidelines to excuse a poor last paceline
is 'first effort at a new track -current meeting "
So not only are horse trying CT for the first time
They have to deal with the bull ring

Bill

[DaveEdwards]

First off, I know tonight's races are already abandoned, but I was in the process of downloading the card when I found this out. I figured I ought to take a look anyway though.

Initial thoughts are that this is a messy race. As for the trainer data David, I have to be honest that I didn't really know how to start applying it.

To help with line selection I've used the 6 to set the pace.

Horses:
1 - Struggling recently & unlikely to get 6.5f. Out.
1A - Won it's last race at $7.5k, now in for $5k after 68 days off. Alarm bells are ringing on this one. Out.
2 - Take the 3rd line back. Assuming the last line was just down to lack of running room & line 2 was at a slower pace than it would likely face tonight.
3 - Last line
4 - Last line
5 - Line 2 as it was at CT.
6 - Line 1. Appears to be a good sprint within a route and the good part of the race an indication of a return to form.
7 - Out. No indication of a return to form.
8 - Out. No recent lines look competitive here.
9 - Second line back. Unlikely to be leading and so have taken a line that will reflect more how it will run tonight.
10 - Line 1

I can't say I'd be confident betting in this race so perhaps luckily I can't! I have 6 & 10 on top in RDSS and if forced they would be my selections.

This wasn't an easy race for me.

[alydar_ David]

Thanks Bills, Ted and Dave for your contributions.

Might be fun to give this another shot some time.