EVD 2nd -- Wednesday, March 15 - Pace and Cap

alydar_ David · 03-15-2006, 06:30 PM

Here are some thoughts about EVD. Lots of folks are doing this card tonight with Speculator. So this will be quickie... may as well ride on some of their shoulders.

1st:
Almost everyone can run to par. This is a suicide speed race if I've ever seen one. There are three horses with seven speed points and three horses with six speed points. With the speed collapsing all over the place it may be difficult for closers to find room. I'm looking at two of the speedballs at nice odds. # 8 Dream Town at 12-1 with good connections and #9 Spruce's Halo at 10-1 with the best Total Energy.

2nd:
This 4.5F event doesn't really excite me. Only three horses can run to par. #12 Sassy Stacy at 10-1 might be interesting.

3rd:
This two turn mile race doesn't have anyone leaping off the page. #9 Kincora Lad, the probable favorite, has "unknown" written all over him. I'll take a pass.

4th:
I like #2 Party Hunter to go wire-to-wire at 20-1. Both of the favorites, #6 and #1, look legitimate with the best Line Scores. So, I might be pushing the envelope here. On the other hand Party Hunter's 1F and 2F blow this field away. This might be a money maker.

5th:
There are only two early runners with the speed points to suggest success, #11 and #14. I prefer #11 (but not at 3-1). Neither is a price. #13 and #6 are the price horses, but the lack of Total Energy really makes them non-contenders. I'll probably pass.

6th:
One of the probable favorites, #6 Total Demand, is a horse for course and may be tough to beat. However, I have an automatic bet here. #3 Mighty Mystery is tops in Total Energy and is 10-1 on the morning line. For me that's a no brainer.

7th:
#2 Grand Marshall is a need to lead type with eight speed points. And he does have best Early Pace rating. On the other hand that pace rating is below par and he tends to throw in the towel. At 6-1 he's no bargain. #1 Flaming Cajun is the other front runner with seven speed points. At 5-1 he's no great shakes either though. #9 Krises Bells has the best Total Energy of the group by far, but it's still below par. And I can't get excited about a sup-par horse at 3-1. The only value I can find is #7 Ten Steps at 8-1. He's okay, nothing great, but I suppose he's worth a couple of bucks at that price.

That's enough for now.

Ted Craven · 03-15-2006, 10:27 PM

David,

Looks like you had about as much success here as I did tonight! It was fun working things with some of the newer Spec users, though.

I guess there are more races coming up tomorrow...

yours,

Ted

alydar_ David · 03-15-2006, 10:54 PM

Hi Ted,

Actually, it worked out okay this evening. If Party Hunter had kept going in the fourth instead of fading to third it would have been gangbusters!

I thought it was ironic that we had similar selections in some races...what with our using different data sources and programs. Not to mention the fact that I play EVD all the time (and have for years) and this was your initial foray into Cajun City.

Great work on your Speculator postings. They were quite educational. I especially like the way you use your noggin' and really handicap all aspects of the race. I'm sure Doc would approve. :>)

-----

1st race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1 Satty Nite 9.40 7.20 5.60
10 Short Leg Sue 22.60 10.20
7 Glitter Queen 6.00 e

$2 Exacta 1-10 187.40
$2 Quinella 1-10 121.40
$2 Superfecta 1-10-ALL-ALL 433.00
$2 Trifecta 1-10-7 2,588.60

2nd race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
12 Sassy Stacy 10.60 6.80 5.00
2 Quarter Crown 50.60 15.60
6 Jaded Heart 19.40

$2 Daily Double 1-12 142.60
$2 Exacta 12-2 405.40
$2 Quinella 2-12 190.00
$2 Superfecta 12-2-6-ALL 5,612.00
$2 Trifecta 12-2-6 6,374.60

3rd race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
8 Hammer Rat 10.80 4.60 3.40
2 Fabian 6.80 4.20
4 Smarty Diamond 8.00

$2 Exacta 8-2 83.40
$2 Quinella 2-8 47.20
$2 Superfecta 8-2-4-10 6,611.60
$2 Trifecta 8-2-4 1,138.60
$2 Pick 3 1-12-8 (3 correct) 339.60

4th race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
11 Lighting Ocean 36.00 8.80 5.00
6 Sportster 3.60 3.40
2 Party Hunter 6.60

$2 Exacta 11-6 134.80
$2 Quinella 6-11 34.80
$2 Superfecta 11-6-2-5 22,497.00
$2 Trifecta 11-6-2 2,949.40
$2 Pick 3 12-8-11 (3 correct) 3,415.40

5th race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
14 At a Boy Harry 7.40 5.00 4.00
6 Silver Indy 5.20 4.20
13 Ajfireball 5.40

$2 Exacta 14-6 50.20
$2 Quinella 6-14 26.60
$2 Superfecta 14-6-13-11 1,028.40
$2 Trifecta 14-6-13 378.40
$2 Pick 3 8-11-14 (3 correct) 846.00

6th race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
7 Chin High 8.60 4.00 4.20
8 China Cobra 4.00 3.60
3 Mighty Mystery 4.20

$2 Exacta 7-8 46.60
$2 Quinella 7-8 17.00
$2 Superfecta 7-8-3-2 340.20
$2 Trifecta 7-8-3 167.40
$2 Pick 3 11-14-7 (3 correct) 3,037.40

7th race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
9 Krises Bells 11.20 3.60 2.20
4 Betnow 3.20 2.10
1 Flaming Cajun 2.40

$2 Exacta 9-4 35.20
$2 Quinella 4-9 11.40
$2 Superfecta 9-4-1-7 185.40
$2 Trifecta 9-4-1 70.20
$2 Pick 3 14-7-9 (3 correct) 157.40

03-15-2006, 06:30 PM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	EVD 2nd -- Wednesday, March 15 Here are some thoughts about EVD. Lots of folks are doing this card tonight with Speculator. So this will be quickie... may as well ride on some of their shoulders. 1st: Almost everyone can run to par. This is a suicide speed race if I've ever seen one. There are three horses with seven speed points and three horses with six speed points. With the speed collapsing all over the place it may be difficult for closers to find room. I'm looking at two of the speedballs at nice odds. # 8 Dream Town at 12-1 with good connections and #9 Spruce's Halo at 10-1 with the best Total Energy. 2nd: This 4.5F event doesn't really excite me. Only three horses can run to par. #12 Sassy Stacy at 10-1 might be interesting. 3rd: This two turn mile race doesn't have anyone leaping off the page. #9 Kincora Lad, the probable favorite, has "unknown" written all over him. I'll take a pass. 4th: I like #2 Party Hunter to go wire-to-wire at 20-1. Both of the favorites, #6 and #1, look legitimate with the best Line Scores. So, I might be pushing the envelope here. On the other hand Party Hunter's 1F and 2F blow this field away. This might be a money maker. 5th: There are only two early runners with the speed points to suggest success, #11 and #14. I prefer #11 (but not at 3-1). Neither is a price. #13 and #6 are the price horses, but the lack of Total Energy really makes them non-contenders. I'll probably pass. 6th: One of the probable favorites, #6 Total Demand, is a horse for course and may be tough to beat. However, I have an automatic bet here. #3 Mighty Mystery is tops in Total Energy and is 10-1 on the morning line. For me that's a no brainer. 7th: #2 Grand Marshall is a need to lead type with eight speed points. And he does have best Early Pace rating. On the other hand that pace rating is below par and he tends to throw in the towel. At 6-1 he's no bargain. #1 Flaming Cajun is the other front runner with seven speed points. At 5-1 he's no great shakes either though. #9 Krises Bells has the best Total Energy of the group by far, but it's still below par. And I can't get excited about a sup-par horse at 3-1. The only value I can find is #7 Ten Steps at 8-1. He's okay, nothing great, but I suppose he's worth a couple of bucks at that price. That's enough for now.

03-15-2006, 10:27 PM	#2
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,241	David, Looks like you had about as much success here as I did tonight! It was fun working things with some of the newer Spec users, though. I guess there are more races coming up tomorrow... yours, Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

03-15-2006, 10:54 PM	#3
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Hi Ted, Actually, it worked out okay this evening. If Party Hunter had kept going in the fourth instead of fading to third it would have been gangbusters! I thought it was ironic that we had similar selections in some races...what with our using different data sources and programs. Not to mention the fact that I play EVD all the time (and have for years) and this was your initial foray into Cajun City. Great work on your Speculator postings. They were quite educational. I especially like the way you use your noggin' and really handicap all aspects of the race. I'm sure Doc would approve. :>) ----- 1st race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 1 Satty Nite 9.40 7.20 5.60 10 Short Leg Sue 22.60 10.20 7 Glitter Queen 6.00 e $2 Exacta 1-10 187.40 $2 Quinella 1-10 121.40 $2 Superfecta 1-10-ALL-ALL 433.00 $2 Trifecta 1-10-7 2,588.60 2nd race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 12 Sassy Stacy 10.60 6.80 5.00 2 Quarter Crown 50.60 15.60 6 Jaded Heart 19.40 $2 Daily Double 1-12 142.60 $2 Exacta 12-2 405.40 $2 Quinella 2-12 190.00 $2 Superfecta 12-2-6-ALL 5,612.00 $2 Trifecta 12-2-6 6,374.60 3rd race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 8 Hammer Rat 10.80 4.60 3.40 2 Fabian 6.80 4.20 4 Smarty Diamond 8.00 $2 Exacta 8-2 83.40 $2 Quinella 2-8 47.20 $2 Superfecta 8-2-4-10 6,611.60 $2 Trifecta 8-2-4 1,138.60 $2 Pick 3 1-12-8 (3 correct) 339.60 4th race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 11 Lighting Ocean 36.00 8.80 5.00 6 Sportster 3.60 3.40 2 Party Hunter 6.60 $2 Exacta 11-6 134.80 $2 Quinella 6-11 34.80 $2 Superfecta 11-6-2-5 22,497.00 $2 Trifecta 11-6-2 2,949.40 $2 Pick 3 12-8-11 (3 correct) 3,415.40 5th race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 14 At a Boy Harry 7.40 5.00 4.00 6 Silver Indy 5.20 4.20 13 Ajfireball 5.40 $2 Exacta 14-6 50.20 $2 Quinella 6-14 26.60 $2 Superfecta 14-6-13-11 1,028.40 $2 Trifecta 14-6-13 378.40 $2 Pick 3 8-11-14 (3 correct) 846.00 6th race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 7 Chin High 8.60 4.00 4.20 8 China Cobra 4.00 3.60 3 Mighty Mystery 4.20 $2 Exacta 7-8 46.60 $2 Quinella 7-8 17.00 $2 Superfecta 7-8-3-2 340.20 $2 Trifecta 7-8-3 167.40 $2 Pick 3 11-14-7 (3 correct) 3,037.40 7th race - Evangeline Downs - March 15, 2006 Pgm Horse Win Place Show 9 Krises Bells 11.20 3.60 2.20 4 Betnow 3.20 2.10 1 Flaming Cajun 2.40 $2 Exacta 9-4 35.20 $2 Quinella 4-9 11.40 $2 Superfecta 9-4-1-7 185.40 $2 Trifecta 9-4-1 70.20 $2 Pick 3 14-7-9 (3 correct) 157.40