Maiden races

[hitbids]

I understand the methodology doesn't include Maiden races but does anyone have any suggestions on how best to analyze a Maiden race with sufficient runners and past performances? Any help would be appreciated.

[rmath]

hitbids, Doc never said to pass all maiden races. Only the ones with Fts or that had horses with less than 3 North American lines.
Any other Mdn race should be handled just like all the other races: using the best of last 3 COMPARABLE.

[Ted Craven]

Agreed. Subject to standard caveats: sometimes too little info to really know horse's abilities - young horses may be improving; some horses don't know if they want to win (or if beating most of the field is OK for them - given current competition the humans have selected). Maiden races probably have horses trying more new things for the first time (new distances, new surfaces, new competition levels) and so there are more unknowns.

More chaos = better mutuels. It is your choice (and your records, and type of wager pools favoured) to spend more or less time working workable maiden races. But it can be exciting!

Ted

[rmath]

Could not have said it any better.
TED is right on.
Maidens can be very profitable.

[Ted Craven]

For example, an interesting collection of knowns and unknowns - potential value.

#10 is the darling, not a proven router, ALL early, no Late energy. On the other hand, it is the Lone Early (and will fight for it) and could steal the race at slower than 22.5 45.1.

The #9 on the other hand shows Late energy disbursement (and clear willingness to pass horses) and thus perhaps a better candidate to stretch out.

The #4 has run this race before and nearly won it.

The #2 knows how to route, though with mediocre Late energy and not sure if it knows how to pass ALL the horses yet.

With close to these odds on the #4 and #9, there could be a bet (not just in this race remember, but also in a dozen like it).

[Ted Craven]

That worked.