Emd 6/24 - Race 6

[PeteC]

Here's another race to take a shot at tonight...

#2 is scratched...

I have the earlies as 1,2 and 6, with the 4 as E/P. I don't think any of these can outduel each other so I will look OTE.

Ideally I'd like an OTE runner that can win from 5th or further against my projected 1c of 22.1 (#1's last line). No such luck.

The 5 and 8 have won from 4th though. Both were beaten last out by the favorite, #6, but have won against today's pace previously. With the match-up of the face tonight, I'll take those as my top 2

[PeteC]

Oops...somehow the PP's didn't attach.

Well, no dice on this one. The 5 and 8 ran 2nd and 3rd but were no match for the winning favorite.

[mikesal57]

Petey...what I learned over the past year + is that even though you have multiple "early" horses...that doesn't mean its always a OTE race...

Lets evaluate your early horses 1-2-6 and maybe the 4


#1 just hung on for his 4th win at 5000 claimers..after a horses 4th win , he now joins the big boys that won more races and are tougher

#2 scratched

#6 the in form class dropper

#4 do you think he will get the lead from the 6 ?..he didnt last time...

With the scratch of the 2 , it made it an easy time for the 6 to repeat his top form

Next time you match, try to look at class

mike

[PeteC]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Petey...what I learned over the past year + is that even though you have multiple "early" horses...that doesn't mean its always a OTE race...


mike

Thanks Mike. I've definitely learned that too, but I probably don't make the correct call often enough!

No matter how many earlies in today's race, I will first look to the early group for a horse that can dominate the other earlies based on the pace they can currently handle and their positional comfort zone.

Based on my look on this race I felt early wouldn't win...incorrect here. Your breakdown of my early horses helps from a form/class perspective. I wanted to follow up with your take on the 3 horse though.

In my original post I made a typo and left out the 3...After the 2 scratched, my earlies were 1,3, 6 and 4 as e/p.

Pete

[mikesal57]

Pete..

My take on the 3...

Just won at GG for 4000....

First of all...the odds of a horse winning 2 in a row are 7-1 , hes 5/2(no value)
second...hes shipping in and I dont have stats on that ..is GG better than EMD?
third ..moving up in class
fourth....I know that the "match-up" doesn't work this way but its the way to judge the true speed of the horse...look at the E1 numbers ...do you thing that the 3 can get the lead from the 6?

the 3 has a comfort zone of being on the lead by a few lts and running at a slow 1st call number ...Do you think he would get that here?

#3 was no factor for me

[PeteC]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Pete..

My take on the 3...

Just won at GG for 4000....

First of all...the odds of a horse winning 2 in a row are 7-1 , hes 5/2(no value)
second...hes shipping in and I dont have stats on that ..is GG better than EMD?
third ..moving up in class
fourth....I know that the "match-up" doesn't work this way but its the way to judge the true speed of the horse...look at the E1 numbers ...do you thing that the 3 can get the lead from the 6?

the 3 has a comfort zone of being on the lead by a few lts and running at a slow 1st call number ...Do you think he would get that here?

#3 was no factor for me

Thanks for laying that out Mike.

[gl45]

Hi Mike,
I will never invest on a 6 horse field as you know. People like to gamble.
What do we have in this race:
We have 5 horses that finished in the money in the last 4 races they run.
Who's like to lead the pack, and what does mean leading the pack?
In this race everybody can lead the pack except horse #7.
If I have 5 horses that can lead the pack, which horse can win this race?
Forget OTE or FPLR, just look E1+LP and the speed ratings improvement from 3 races back and you got the winner. FORM, FORM, FORM
"Next time you match, try to look at class"...I do...anybody else/

[mrhug]

Originally Posted by gl45

Hi Mike,
I will never invest on a 6 horse field as you know. People like to gamble.
What do we have in this race:
We have 5 horses that finished in the money in the last 4 races they run.
Who's like to lead the pack, and what does mean leading the pack?
In this race everybody can lead the pack except horse #7.
If I have 5 horses that can lead the pack, which horse can win this race?
Forget OTE or FPLR, just look E1+LP and the speed ratings improvement from 3 races back and you got the winner. FORM, FORM, FORM
"Next time you match, try to look at class"...I do...anybody else/

E1+LP
Are these from RDSS? If so what screen are they on.
Thanks
Melvin

[Ted Craven]

Melvin,

PeteC put up PPs from Brisnet and Pino refers to E1 and LP ratings from BRIS PPs (and not RDSS). E1 is likely the most early of Early runners, and LP a late running designation. I don't know much about BRIS PP Early and Late markups.

Ted

[mrhug]

Thanks Ted. Had some old PP's and found them.