Anybody else ever get "Number Blind"?

[kahunab]

Being an "old" math teacher, it has been my experience over the years to really get into the numbers. I have been using Sartin programs since 1989. If there was ever anyone who could look at all the numbers and get confused it was me. The last couple of years I have been working on trying to see the whole picture. RDSS has really helped me here and I thought I might post a couple of examples to give you all an idea of what I am talking about. I played all three of these races on a recent trip to LasVegas. I was able to get the win, exacta and trifecta in each.

Here is the first race: Race 1 April 1 GP. Looking just at the TPR screen here is what we see....
1. All the horses expend their energy early. Looks like we need a horse with the best late.
2. The high energy horses are pressers. (I have found that most races the winner will have an energy difference of -10 to +10. Turf excepted.)
3. Looking at the segments screen we see a horse who owns the first two fractions. His energy distribution is way out of wack so he can't win but is a great choice for the board.
4. The win choices are the horses with the best balance toward late who are closest on the segments screen. IE the horses in the best position to win. 7 and 1. (Thanks, RitchieP!)

[kahunab]

Here is another example from GP on the same day. A Turf Route .

Looks like everyone is late. Need some early here. We have an early and a presser that owns the first two fractions on the segments screen. He should be on the lead or very close. Rather than play just the 2 earliest types, I chickened out and bet the best early and the best late, ie 1 and 2. 2 has better energy balance toward early than the other late horses. The 3 is an easy choice for the board. F3+Total Pace horses get there very regularily.

[kahunab]

The final example. TAM 3 on April 1.

Look at all the early distribution of energy. Only 3 horses show any balance, 7, 1A and 2. The 6 owns the first two fractions on the segments screen and is the clear contra-energy horse.

Hope these examples give you some ideas.

[Ted Craven]

Excellent analysis Dick, and congratulations on your profitable trip to Las Vegas with your other RDSS buddy. Are the E/L and Segments screens where you spend most of your time? I think those 2 screens could be merged.

Ted

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Excellent analysis Dick, and congratulations on your profitable trip to Las Vegas with your other RDSS buddy. Are the E/L and Segments screens where you spend most of your time? I think those 2 screens could be merged.

Ted

Ted,

Not being an RDSS user, I have a couple of questions.

1 - what makes up the E/L calculations?

2 - Why use F3+Total energy? doesn't that penalize the early horse and reward the late horse since F3 is already figured into total energy and then getting added in a second time?

Thanks

[Ted Craven]

FTL,

1. The E/L Difference graph shows the difference between EPR and LPR (positive difference means a surplus of Early/RED). EPR is a measure of velocity to the 2nd call (adjusted for DTV, ITV and distance equalized). LPR is its reciprocal (energy remaining Late). Graphing the differential by track, distance and surface gives us a range within which horses with matching energy disbursement styles are more likely to contend for Win today (and outside of which are not win contenders - though the opposite style may place).

2. The readout is actual average of F3+Total Pace (read True Speed, read average velocity from start to finish, not Total Energy which compounds F1+F2+F3). Regardless, fastest adjusted final time bumped up by an extra dose of F3 is another take on closing ability. We want to not only see what they do during the F3, but also the context within which they were ready to run that F3 (hence adding in TP). When modeled (and not superseded by matchup considerations, e.g. Lone Early,t hen see first 2 segments of CBL at the left of that Segments screen), these high ranked F3+TP lines finish in the money a suspiciously high percentage of the time. Extra marks for a good showing at the 2nd call. Earlies which dominate or rank well in both the first 2 CBL segments, or are seen to be improving to the 2nd call over the past few races (e.g. maidens) are to be respected for sure, but they still have to have the gas in the tank for the close.

Ted

[kahunab]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Excellent analysis Dick, and congratulations on your profitable trip to Las Vegas with your other RDSS buddy. Are the E/L and Segments screens where you spend most of your time? I think those 2 screens could be merged.

Ted

Thanks Ted. Yes this is where I spend 90% of my handicapping time. Not all of the race pictures are as "clean" as these 3 races but if you can see where the horses are expending their energy, what type of horses have the high energy, one can get a sense without any numbers where this race will play out and who will have the advantage.
I did not mention that I find the computed beaten lengths to be very powerful in the sense that a great percentage of the time the winner in sprints will come out of the top 3 highlighted 1F horses. Routes not as often but still significant when combined with the SC beaten lengths. I find these to be very powerful graphic tools. I got the idea from Richie P's discussion of who is in position to win.

Dick

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

FTL,


2. The readout is actual average of F3+Total Pace (read True Speed, read average velocity from start to finish, not Total Energy which compounds F1+F2+F3). Regardless, fastest adjusted final time bumped up by an extra dose of F3 is another take on closing ability. We want to not only see what they do during the F3, but also the context within which they were ready to run that F3 (hence adding in TP). When modeled (and not superseded by matchup considerations, e.g. Lone Early,t hen see first 2 segments of CBL at the left of that Segments screen), these high ranked F3+TP lines finish in the money a suspiciously high percentage of the time. Extra marks for a good showing at the 2nd call. Earlies which dominate or rank well in both the first 2 CBL segments, or are seen to be improving to the 2nd call over the past few races (e.g. maidens) are to be respected for sure, but they still have to have the gas in the tank for the close.

Ted

I just want to be clear in my understanding, so am I going to use a race where a horse wins by going wire to wire at 6f in 22.0-45.0-1.10.0 (no beaten lenghts to worry about)

Total Pace would be 3960/70 = 56.57
F3 would be 1320/25 = 52.80
The average of the two would be 56.57+52.80 = 119.37/2 = 59.685

Is this correct?

[kahunab]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I just want to be clear in my understanding, so am I going to use a race where a horse wins by going wire to wire at 6f in 22.0-45.0-1.10.0 (no beaten lenghts to worry about)

Total Pace would be 3960/70 = 56.57
F3 would be 1320/25 = 52.80
The average of the two would be 56.57+52.80 = 119.37/2 = 59.685

Is this correct?

Your procedure is correct. The actual math calculation isn't. 56.57+52.8=109.37

109.37/2= 54.685. (Sorry but the Old Math teacher in me couldn't let that go.)

[Ted Craven]

LOL! Correct (and corrected). Note: this applies to Speculator mode only. In Validator mode, the same panel shows the VDC computation (duplicating the same VDC rankings found on the BL/BL screen). VDC is not the same as F3+TP (and formula is unavailable).

Ted