Context --- an Example

[tfm]

My claim is that running lines need to be considered with the context of the race (they're coming out of). It's not enough to know merely that a horse has speed or is a closer, for example, but how it performed within the context of the setup of the race.

So, let's look at something from today.

Silver City CD-11/29/08_R3

per the BRIS Runstyle/pts we have

Silver City E4
Myroslav E/P3
Turfiste E8
General Quarters E/P4
I'm It Wayne E6

running line last out for SC, KEE-10-24-08_R7, per the PPs

PP ST 1C 2C Str Fin
1 5 1-1/2 1-hd 1-hd 1- 1/2

Don't know much here, except that the horse was under pressure throughout and persevered. I don't know how the race played out; whether he dueled with a single horse and they were there to the wire; whether multiple horses took turns running at him, etc.

The chart, however, shows me what happened and puts the line in context.

I see that he was engaged by the 2 horse, who then went after him at the half, and this horse finished LAST; then was hooked and passed (per the replay) by the 9, who had sat a perfect trip while SC dueled, THEN, not only held off the 9 but also the late move by the 6. I now get a clearer sense of this horse than just knowing that he has some early kick; I know that he's able to REPULSE multiple bids: early, in the stretch, and just before the wire. This is one tough mother. I don't need to worry about other speed in the race. As it was:

He wired easily today at 7:1.

[Charlie D]

My claim is that running lines need to be considered with the context of the race (they're coming out of). It's not enough to know merely that a horse has speed or is a closer, for example, but how it performed within the context of the setup of the race.

tfm imo

Like your chart helps you with the above, video replays can be used to help handicappers with the analysis

[Tim Y]

I am going to work this one out and I'll bet it is a second call maiden graduate. Nothing surprising about that one as it works almost universally.

Babies learn to run by going deeper into contests : apportion their energy over an ever increasing distance as they mature as runners. When they have learned those lessons enough to graduate, they flash speed to the 2nd call: BEWARE next time out if that speed is close to the best in the field they contend with.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by tfm

my claim is that running lines need to be considered with the context of the race (they're coming out of). It's not enough to know merely that a horse has speed or is a closer, for example, but how it performed within the context of the setup of the race.

very nice work! Very nice!