" What If "

[MIKE]

--WHAT IF you had a 9f. turf race, and one of your horses had two lines to pick from.
1) a sprint race on the turf
2) a route race on the dirt
--which line would you use?
--which has priority ( the distance or the surface)

[jms62]

For me it is distance.

[shoeless]

Neither on the sod best to play only proven turf horses

[admin]

I would look at the early late readouts and the ESP
of the Dirt route If the horse uses its energy as a sustained or Sus presser Than I would use the dirt line if thats all I had
Now what happened in the turf sprint? I usually avoid
turf sprints as to me these are misfit specailist horses
"What the heck are we gonna do with this horse?"
ahh try him on the turf !!!!

anyway I feel the distance and the running style and way it uses its energy is the key

Bill

[shoeless]

No matter how his energy looks on dirt if the horse is not bred for turf more than likely your barking up the wrong tree.

[admin]

Originally Posted by shoeless

No matter how his energy looks on dirt if the horse is not bred for turf more than likely your barking up the wrong tree.

Good morning Jeff

I hope you have a winning day at Tampa

all the best

[lsosa54]

Not an easy call - assuming it's a race for 2 or 3 or 4 year olds only? In a 4yo + race, I'd probably discard him as a contender, unless it was a maiden race.

I'd probably look at the turf sprint first and hope to go with that line. Problems would be if it was a SA downhill line, or another about distance sprint, or a 7.5 f turf sprint line. Would be tough to get a good projection off those.

I would think a HOL 6f turf sprint line or similar could be as predictive as you could hope for.

As for the dirt route, it can be used if the turf sprint line can't be, but it's a crapshoot between surfaces. If the horse has a NTL dirt style, you better hope there is no other speed in the turf field and that line gives you sufficient total energy to get the win. The preference would be an off the pace dirt route style but again one never knows if the horse will like the turf.

Trainer stats dirt to turf might offer a clue as well as possibly a work over the turf. You have to typically ask permission to work over the turf course, so it's usually a positive sign. You might also give a look at the breeding to get an idea if if might favor turf.

All in all, a bit of a crapshoot but like Schmidt once said: If you're going to bet the race, then use what you got and make the best of it. If not, pass.

I'm not sure that was much help!

Lou

[tfm]

Originally Posted by MIKE

--WHAT IF you had a 9f. turf race, and one of your horses had two lines to pick from.
1) a sprint race on the turf
2) a route race on the dirt
--which line would you use?
--which has priority ( the distance or the surface)

I think there are alot better opportunities to make money in this game than taking stabs at horses that are initially attempting something.

There's a HUGE difference, IMO, between turf sprints (1 turn) and routes (2 turns). There's a huge difference in terms of FOOTWORK, not to mention the change in resulting running style. This is why talented turf sprinters like English Colony, who easily get 7F, can't handle a semi-turn start mile. And, this is also why some of the best players in the game, Crist, Serling, Beyer, STRUGGLE with turf sprints.

The problem, however, is that there are successes every so often, be they cheap tracks, turf biases, or the work of superb trainers. Thus, it's hard to make the case that sprinters should remain sprinting --unless it's the initial turf race.

If I had a dollar for every time I've blown my stack when a horse that made a huge late run in a turf sprint, and was a lock next time out, was entered in a route by the trainer, I wouldn't need to be betting. Which only shows that trainers are clueless, as well.

I realize that most in the game are involved with numbers and favor speed types. Turf and poly horses are looked down upon as being INFERIOR. IMO, turf horses are more talented than dirt horses ---they just can't run on the dirt. It takes much more in terms of FOOTWORK, a horse needs to be much more nimble, to win on the turf, where drafting plays such a huge role, than it does on the dirt, where, in most cases, all you need to do it take the lead early and have the track do the work for you.

Sorry for the ramble.