Good DD Hit Chafles Town R3-4 4-24

[Lt1]

Hit this nice dd. My picks
R1 21563
R2 53261 LS4
R3 71645 LS2
R4 56143 LS3
R5 58491910 LS1 MDNS 2FTS
R6 32761
R7 38672 LS1
R8 42851 LS6
R9 4105
Good Luck
Tim
Winning Ticket
Apr 24 8:09:14 PM Complete Charles Town 3 Double $2.00 1,4,6,7/1.5,6
$24.00 $142.40 $118.40
Winning Combo
4[$42.20] 6[$5.80]
Screen Shots

[The Pook]

A $42 winner only gave you a $142 DD?!. You got cheesed! Might have been better placing win bets.

[dadams6357]

Pook
I hear yah ...hind sight is always 20/20.
Tim keeps showing the way.
Don

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by dadams6357

Pook
I hear yah ...hind sight is always 20/20.
Tim keeps showing the way.
Don

Don, honest question.

When you say “Tim keeps showing the way,” what exactly is he showing?

Before the race we see a list of contenders. After the race we see a winning ticket. The part that’s missing is how that ticket was actually constructed from those contenders.

Did you personally have that double the way it was played?

With all due respect, any decent software can generate a top 4 or 5 contender list that will include the winner most of the time. That’s not where the edge is.

The edge is in how you turn those contenders into an actual wager. That’s the part no one is seeing beforehand, and that’s where the learning really is.

So I’m just asking, what is the actual takeaway people are getting from this? Thanks.

Tom

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by atlasaxis

Don, honest question.

When you say “Tim keeps showing the way,” what exactly is he showing?

Before the race we see a list of contenders. After the race we see a winning ticket. The part thatÂ’s missing is how that ticket was actually constructed from those contenders.

Did you personally have that double the way it was played?

With all due respect, any decent software can generate a top 4 or 5 contender list that will include the winner most of the time. ThatÂ’s not where the edge is.

The edge is in how you turn those contenders into an actual wager. ThatÂ’s the part no one is seeing beforehand, and thatÂ’s where the learning really is.

So IÂ’m just asking, what is the actual takeaway people are getting from this? Thanks.

Tom

Hi Tom,
I am friends with Tim and have met him several times at Saratoga. I.M.O. what he offers is showing people how he gets his contenders (backs it up with statistical backtests of them over different time periods to show if what he does is still valid). Once he gets them he explains his capping process and how he moves horses up and down his contender list based on things Like form points, off track line usage and elimination, not using horses best speed rating if an older horse etc. He has done this in many posts here (not on a daily basis when posting his contender mix.) He honestly wants to help people because he was given help decades ago and became a consistent winner after that. He is trying to "give back" in the way he knows how to.

One thing I can suggest for someone looking to gain more of an understanding of what he does is to look at the winning tickets he posts, see who he uses and who he does not and then look at the race to see why. His "mix" of contenders and the way he structures tickets is HIS way and often is VERY different from most folks .

I get that some would feel he should "do more" to "prove" what he does works. All I can say is that he is most definitley a consistent winner at the races and has been for a LONG time. What is really cool to me personally is that he has been able to maintain this winning with all the changes in the last few years that has hit racing from smaller fields to Computer teams etc etc. The same issues that has chased MANY people from the game as it became unwinnable for them with the time commitment they can devote or methods they used. And for the record I AM one of those people. Outside of the Derby and an occasional card I have been out for years now.

Man I went long on this ha? LOL I hope you are well Tom and I respect your skills and wish you the best !
Richie

[atlasaxis]

Richie, I appreciate you taking the time to lay that out and I understand what you’re saying about Tim’s process and intent.

From my perspective, I’m not questioning that he has a method or that he’s trying to help. I’m simply offering a possible reason why there seems to be more interest in the posts after the races are run than before.

What people see before the race is a list of contenders. What they see after the race is a winning ticket. The step in between, which is how that ticket was actually constructed from those contenders, isn’t visible beforehand.

The wager itself is the decision, not just the contenders. That’s the part people are trying to understand.

I think that’s where the disconnect is. It’s not disappointment, it’s that people are trying to understand the wagering decision itself, not just the contenders or the result.

Looking back after the race and trying to piece together why certain horses were used is very different from seeing that decision made before the outcome is known. That’s the part that most people are interested in because that’s where the real learning is.

So when Tim mentions that views come after the races are run, my feeling is that people are trying to see the result and then figure out how it happened, because they didn’t get to see that step beforehand.

I’m not attacking him or what he’s doing. I’m just offering a perspective on why the engagement might look the way it does.

I do appreciate this conversation with you and Tim.

Tom

[dadams6357]

Tom
Sartin stated that handicapping is just part of the scheme. The psychology of betting the ponies is the most important. If you think that folks on here are just going to be spoon feeding you forget it. Like anything else in life you have to dig through it all. There are plenty of sources on this sight that have tons of post by other horse players.
I agree with you on one thing. Most if not all people post the hit of the day if any.
It would be best if they showed you the whole day of betting. Showing the ROI (return on investment) that is what I want to see.
Also your not aware of it but the program was developed to incorporate a variety of handicapping styles and ways as it relates to pace. It was not set up as a teaching forum. Folks only contribute because they want to. If the post are not doing you any good then just dont read em .is all.
I look at these post as inspiration and you do pick up pointers.
You better pull yourself out of the mindset that anyone on this platform is going to give you the WPS horses or give you the exact 6 pick. Your not living in reality.

ps you might start looking at the videos. Handicappers do show how they handicap. Also look at some of the old post. They have folks walking you through how
to handicap. Tim has repeated himself all the time. He has talked about Scott and Brohamer and others on line selection and form . Tim has numerous post on exactly what your talking about. Have you searched the sight and read up on them?. Have you gone to the section of RDSS LEVERAGE / PACE. Go there and read and watch the videos.

Good luck and start digging...because if your gonna make it handicapping it is the only way.
Don

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by dadams6357

Tom
Sartin stated that handicapping is just part of the scheme. The psychology of betting the ponies is the most important. If you think that folks on here are just going to be spoon feeding you forget it. Like anything else in life you have to dig through it all. There are plenty of sources on this sight that have tons of post by other horse players.
I agree with you on one thing. Most if not all people post the hit of the day if any.
It would be best if they showed you the whole day of betting. Showing the ROI (return on investment) that is what I want to see.
Also your not aware of it but the program was developed to incorporate a variety of handicapping styles and ways as it relates to pace. It was not set up as a teaching forum. Folks only contribute because they want to. If the post are not doing you any good then just dont read em .is all.
I look at these post as inspiration and you do pick up pointers.
You better pull yourself out of the mindset that anyone on this platform is going to give you the WPS horses or give you the exact 6 pick. Your not living in reality.

ps you might start looking at the videos. Handicappers do show how they handicap. Also look at some of the old post. They have folks walking you through how
to handicap. Tim has repeated himself all the time. He has talked about Scott and Brohamer and others on line selection and form . Tim has numerous post on exactly what your talking about. Have you searched the sight and read up on them?. Have you gone to the section of RDSS LEVERAGE / PACE. Go there and read and watch the videos.

Good luck and start digging...because if your gonna make it handicapping it is the only way.
Don

Don, I actually agree with part of what you said.

I’m not asking anyone to spoon-feed me picks, and I’m not looking for anyone to give out exact wagers so I can copy them. I’ve been doing this a long time and I’m comfortable with my own approach.

What I’m talking about is the value of what’s being shared here for anyone trying to learn.

My point is the same one you made: showing the whole day of betting, including ROI, wins and losses, would be far more useful than only showing the hit of the day.

Listing contenders and then posting winning results afterward doesn’t really show the full picture. It leaves out the most important step, which is how those contenders are turned into an actual wager and how that holds up over time, including the losses.

I fully understand that handicapping is only part of the game and that wagering psychology matters. But that’s exactly why seeing the transition from contenders to wager construction is important. That is where the real decision is made.

I’m not saying anyone owes that. Just pointing out the difference between showing results and showing a process.

Tom

[dadams6357]

Tom
The post are basically bragging rights. That is all...that is handicappers free speech.
If you have a specific question for anyone of the heavy hitters. Like Tim/Mitch/Ted/Bill/Dick/Awsome. They have no problem answering your questions.
Also time is a factor for these folks that post. Most of them figured that you have read their past post and understand the printouts they are showing.
Tim gets frustrated because he gets an average of 170 viewers on his post and not one question.
You could give 10 handicappers the exact order of finishers and I guarantee you would have 10 handicappers betting 10 different ways. Most would say your full of bs and bet there own selections.
The best that I can suggest is go through some of the past post. I mean they go into great detail on breaking down a races. Pages of analysis of a race.
Yeah it is a lil hard to find but there is a bunch out there.
Don

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by dadams6357

Tom
The post are basically bragging rights. That is all...that is handicappers free speech.
If you have a specific question for anyone of the heavy hitters. Like Tim/Mitch/Ted/Bill/Dick/Awsome. They have no problem answering your questions.
Also time is a factor for these folks that post. Most of them figured that you have read their past post and understand the printouts they are showing.
Tim gets frustrated because he gets an average of 170 viewers on his post and not one question.
You could give 10 handicappers the exact order of finishers and I guarantee you would have 10 handicappers betting 10 different ways. Most would say your full of bs and bet there own selections.
The best that I can suggest is go through some of the past post. I mean they go into great detail on breaking down a races. Pages of analysis of a race.
Yeah it is a lil hard to find but there is a bunch out there.
Don

Don, I appreciate the honesty.

If the posts are mainly about sharing results or even bragging rights, that’s fine. Everyone can post however they choose.

But if the goal is for people to learn something, then there’s a clear gap.

There’s a big difference between showing contenders and then posting a winning result afterward, and showing how that result was actually decided before the race.

You’re right, give 10 handicappers the same contenders and you’ll get 10 different wagers. That’s exactly the point. The wager is the decision.

If that decision isn’t shown before the race, then people are left trying to reverse engineer it after the fact, and that’s not the same thing.

That’s also why there’s a disconnect with engagement. It’s not that people aren’t interested, it’s that they’re not being shown the part that actually matters.

I’m not saying anyone has to change what they do. I’m just being clear about the difference between showing results and showing a repeatable process.

Tom