IND3 17Sept25

[kahunab]

I wanted to share a race from today that I thought might be interesting and helpful. We are looking at the 3rd race today at the Horseshoe at Indianapolis. It is an 8F race on the grass claiming 20K with a purse of 38K with 10 horses.
What does our database tell us. 95% of the time the winner in a turf route at IND will be in the top 5 RX3.



We look at the top 5 RX3 horses in our Leverage Pace screen and make Secondary and Non-Contenders of the rest.
It looks like our top 3 horses are the 1,2,9. All Early horses. Our Quirin points and just looking at all the Early horses and EP horse, appear to be 6 horses going to the front and lots of pressure.



Whe we look at the BL/BL screen we see the top 2 are the 1 and the 2 horses. Notice however, that under ESP they all expend their energy late. Can some of these Early horses run late?



The segments screen show us the 1 horse being a triple zero horse in a field of Early. Can he get the lead and keep it? Who can come from behind and catch him?

[kahunab]

Now we come to the point of this post. We have talked about the New Pace screen and what it tells us. In a broad based way this screen shows us the totality of a horses past performance and what his whole past performance shows us. Notice under the red arrow, who New Pace thinks are the Early horses. Notice in the green box how similar the 1 and the 9 are. (Both in our top 3 horses on L/P screen). Top 2 graphs for a late race and number 2 and 2 in Computer Speed rating. It was this picture that had me looking at 9 a bit closer. The 1 was going to be my Key horse. Note the 3 is the swing horse. This horse hits the board more than you might imagine and he is in the top 5 of our RX3 horses and top 5 here on New Pace in Computer Speed. [NOTE: Be sure your configuration is set to show 10 lines in the PPs. Otherwise you will get some very different readouts.]



Let’s look at the PP’s for 1 and 9. The 9 is a fighter who never gives up. He has hit the board 9 of his last 10. Look at the +boxes.





So I decided to play the 5 Leverage Pace horses in an Exacta with the form of 1,9 with 1,9,2,3,4. I wish I had done the same with the trifecta.



The main point here is to use New Pace as a look at the horses total past performances as a clue to what he/she might do today.

[Lt1]

Well done Dick. For those of us who use the 4#s approach we should have noted that the 1,2,9 would have been our key horse contenders with the 9 getting the nod[before any capping is done for those who are in a hurry] since it ranks higher on the PL/BPP side which RMATH gave his nod to based on his yrs of record keeping. Once again excellent work and thanks for taking the time to post this race with all of your well thought out explanations.
Tom

[darmar]

Great analysis Dick it is always refreshing to see when a realistic numbers of horses are involved in a race that RDSS can bring out a great result and payoff.
Darryl

[kahunab]

Thanks, Tim. I really enjoy looking at a race from multiple viewpoints. I always seem to learn something new.

One of the things I wanted to point out with last night’s post was using our databases. But in my senility, I forgot to mention it until about 3:00am when I woke up thinking about it. Does that ever happen to anyone else?

Here is the full Leverage Pace data screen.



I have shortened it up so we can just look at part of the page with bigger print.







We remember our math, if we want to know the probability of getting the exacta and trifecta in our top 5 horses, we remember that the probability of event A happening with event B, is the probability of event A happening times the probability of event B happening. Note that RX1 and RX2 are a bit better at getting the Place horse in the top 5. Using RX2 we have the probability of getting the Win and Place horses in our top 5, (.95 X .95) or 90% of the time. Our expectancy of getting the Win, Place and Show in our top 5 RX2 is (.95 X .95 X .79) or about 71% of the time.

I know this is a small sample size, but as Doc used to say, “When you don’t have all the data, use all the data you have!”

So we can enter our assessment of the above race with some confidence that we have the exacta. In fact, we had the top 4 finishers in our top 5 RX horses. The $.10 Super paid $298.

I just wanted to remind everyone that we really are data driven and our database can yield some really helpful information.

[kahunab]

Thanks, Darryl!

It's fun to share and get different perspectives.

Dick

[Lt1]

Dick I do remember Doc saying that. In our case we have 2 wonderful approaches that compliment each very well. If folks would take the time to study the info that has been provided by Richie, you ,Bill. & Ted that would be well on their way to consistent winning. Hopefully some light bulbs are going off somewhere. Keep up the great work.
Tim