False Early horses, %Med Tool Etc.

[Mitch44]

Something that needs to be learned is that ; Any Early horse that can not carry its speed into the 2nd FR is a false Early and is a non contender.

This also occurred in a race last night that was being discussed, the #1.

The Velocity-POH is one of my favorite screens and I always consult it. One can do many things with it.

The way racing is structured E horse's that can't carry their speed 6F are never winners and move to lesser tracks. I.e. From Parks to Pen Nat or Mountaineer. There they card few 6F races and more 5.5F races and horses that can't make it there and win at 5.5 F go down to much cheaper tracks and they tend to run a lot of 5F races where the best of these E and in many cases they are also are NTL horses with % Med over 70%.

You'll find these at major tracks also, however they are more prone to be running at lesser tracks.

Mitch 44 AKA "The Monkey"

[Mitch44]

Horses with a %Med of 70% and higher are Need to Lead horses and will fight to get it from the time the gate opens. If they can't get the lead they will exhaust themselves trying to get it, therefore energy used early is unavailable late their 3rd FR will be even lower because of the early exertion.

Lt1 and I and also many old Sartin have been eliminating NTL horses for years.

[Mitch44]

The way racing is structured E horse's that can't carry their speed 6F are never winners and move to lesser tracks. I.e. From Parks to Pen Nat or Mountaineer. There they card few 6F races and more 5.5F races and horses that can't make it there and win at 5.5 F go down to much cheaper tracks where they tend to run a lot of 5 F races. As you decent the class of tracks. you'll run into more NTL and false Early horses, in most cases they are also are NTL horses with % Med over 70%.

You'll find these at major tracks also, however they are more prone to be running at lesser tracks. This is the way racing is structured, think of it like baseball and their sent down to the minors, No curve ball gone and no 3rd FR gone and their running style. Its somewhat the old saying of cheap speed . A horse that can't get 6F at Parks may go to Pen National or Mountaineer where they card more 5.5 races. From there down to another class of tracks such as Evd.

There are even tracks that run only 4 or 4.5 F races. Of course with each strep downward the purses get smaller. And if you play the smaller tracks and bullrings you'll run into many more NTL and high % Med. horses. You can find rave with nothing but all NTL horses in it.

Smart trainers and owners will move horses around etc. to take advantage of this and their running style.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Even with one NTL horse in a race it'll have an effect on the race. Early Presser and Pressers will let it go and do to superior Total Pace/ Energy will over take it. In this situation it could still get a Place or show depending on the make up of the field.
One caveat here is that if there are 2 NTL horses don't necessarily think they will go go out there and set it up for a closer. Because if one is out of form or breaks bad etc. the duel between them may never set up. In that case its common for the NTL to loaf on the leas and steal the race. Demand at least 3 NTL horses for them to effect the race.

When there is only 1 NTL horse and it doesn't carry its speed into the 2ndFR, plus has low total Energy or Total Pace it can and should be tossed.

Mitch44

[gptx]

Thank you Mitch,

I am very new to %med. and one thing I am trying to figure out is a situation like the following.

Say you have a race with 3 or so E horses (visual) with QSP's of 6,7,8. Another horse is labeled as a P4 (visual).

The %med of the E's are between 70.4-71.0, while the P4 %med is 70.6.

The P4 is labeled as an "E" in %med column, as are the E horses, but will that P4 run with the E's at the first call based on the 70.6 %med. or will it run in it's usual pressing style, say third positionally, 2 lengths behind?

Thanks

[Mitch44]

Even with one NTL horse in a race it'll have an effect on the race. Early Presser and Pressers will let it go and do to their superior Total Pace/ Energy will over take it. In this situation it could still get a Place or show depending on the make up of the field and totally destroy your EX or TRI. While these horses are non winners they can have an effect on the race and field, therefore if their truly in your top 5 its better to keep it in and mentally downgrade it. If low total Energy, high % Med. and doesn't carry its speed into the 2nd FR toss it. Tossed them as stated earlier and if low energy it should not be in your top 5 for readouts. If in your top 5 keep it in as the program will rank it low and it won't be considered for win.

One caveat here is that if there are 2 NTL horses don't necessarily think they will go go out there and set it up for a closer. Because if one is out of form or breaks bad etc. the duel between them may never set up. In that case its common for the NTL to loaf on the lead and steal the race. Demand at least 3 NTL horses for them to effect the race.

When there is only 1 NTL horse and it doesn't carry its speed into the 2ndFR, plus has low total Energy or Total Pace it can and should be tossed.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Jesse;

If all are E horses and %Med is over 70% they'll all fight for the lead as soon as the gates open. Those slight differences are meaningless in your example, I.e. 70.0 or 70.4 etc. the difference is insignificant. The one labeled P4 in you example isn't correct it also is an Early horse. Its like that because you used the Visual ESP and that's something totally different and used only by matchers. Don't use that!

Mitch44

[gptx]

OK thanks,

So the P4 is actually an E and will run as such based on % median and will be susceptible to spending to much early energy as the others.

ALWAYS use the %med labeled running style for how the race projects to be run early?

Thanks

[Mitch44]

Yes Jesse always use the % Med.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

When Sartin went from the old % Early to % Med it was tested and proven that it was more accurate for picking winners and far superior. You should be using the %Med not visual. In fact Sartin back tested this and determined the exact cutoff point for each ESP of %Med. In Jesse good question above and example, you couldn't have a horse 70%Med and over as a Presser, it would be an Early horse.

If your looking at the Velocity -POH screen the %Med and ESP is what your looking for. The RS designation is the visual ESP and totally inaccurate. Don't use the RS as %-Med has been proven to be superior.
A horse can go wire to wire and not be an Early horse by %Med. This confounds Matchers and they assume all wire to wire winners or horses are Early. Assumptions are the Mother of all F--- ups. Don't assume go by the % Med.

Mitch44