How Far Back Is Too Far for a Comparable Paceline?

[Jimmy R]

Guys, I’m trying to tighten up one part of my paceline selection.

If a horse’s last 2 or 3 starts are not comparable to today because of surface, distance, class, or race shape, but there is a very strong comparable line 4th or 5th back, how do you handle it?

Do you:

use the older comparable line,
stay within the last 3 even if the races are less comparable,
or treat the older line only as evidence of ability rather than current form?

I got burned recently by reaching back to an older 7f dirt win that made a horse rank #1 on several RDSS screens, but the line may have represented ability more than current condition.

I’m especially interested in how you balance "recency" versus comparability when the older line is clearly the better match for today’s distance/surface.

Curious how you more experienced RDSS peeps draw that line.

[MJS6916]

To me, the overall shortest answer to your questions is:

the further back you have to go to pick a line

the more the story leading up to today's event

has to make sense.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Also, it helps to see a good reason
for the connections to enter the horse
in the races they picked for it
since that good line 4 or 5+ back in the PPs.

Hope that helps some
Mike