Belmont June 1 - Hat Tricks - Pace and Cap

cprescigno · 06-01-2006, 11:42 AM

OK since I have been working with the Match Up and using the information that both Jim and Richie are posting up my accuracy has improved dramatically. I am hitting 75% of my races on a good day. On a bad day I'm going 60%. I'm not good at Belmont so I figured I'd work at it a bit. Sunday played four races, hit three with a double. The 8th at Belmont is the one I missed. I hit the double at Lone Star and the 10th at MNR.
I've hit one horse at $59 and one at $49. My sample data is a bit low as I have been working on this without making a real bet. I started betting my picks the last 14 days and hitting pretty solid. Yesterday I hit the double at Indiana. Caught a First race winner at $18.40 and I took a shot at the second maiden race. My pick was the 1-5 second race. The 1 would have paid $252 and the 5 $40.00. The 5 took it for a $40 double. I've hit a double the last four days in a row. Couldn't put one together today.At least not yet.
I still have a bunch to learn here but here are three races at Belmont today. I try to isolate the winner for a single win bet but I'm not Jim Bradshaw. (BUT I.M BETTER THAN RICHIE) Maybe if I practice this for another 10-15 years I'll get close to Jim's level.

BELMONT JUNE 1
RACE 3
WIN 1
1 ML 6/1

RACE 5
WIN 1A-7
!A ML 2/1
7 ML 5/1

RACE 8
WIN 3-7
3 ML 8/1
7 ML 12/1

Good Luck
Charlie

Here's one more at Arlington Park for June 1 (today)
AP - RACE 4
WIN 10-6
6-ML 2/1
10 - ML 10/1

cprescigno · 06-01-2006, 12:21 PM

The 7 scratched in the 8th Race at Belmont so I moved my bet to the 2 horse.
WIN Bet 3-2
ML on the 2 is 6/1

Charlie

jms62 · 06-01-2006, 12:30 PM

Great Job!!! COntinued success... Question , are you no longer using software or are you somehow incorporating both methods.

cprescigno · 06-01-2006, 12:47 PM

I'm not using software at all. Trying to mix a Val or a Spec and the Match Up is not gong to work. The base guidelines are very different. It just wouldn't work.
I am working almost completely manually. Right now I'm using Spec to pick my pacelines. It's just easier for me to read than the PP Sheets. I pick the pacelines based on how I think the horse can perform to today's race.
Then I isolate my Early horses and work their paclines making all BL and distance adjustment manually. The more you do this the better you get at it. Will I ever b able to do this in my head like Jim, I don't know. He is able to eliminate his non-contenders a lot faster than I can. I make all adjustments writing down my pacelines for each contender. I adjust 2/10ths of a second for each behind length. For final fraction adjustments I use 51 FPS divided into 660Ft. (1 Furlong) whcih give me a 12.94 second adjustment. I use 13 flat. I use 6.4 for a half furlong. This seems to work fine for the type races I go into. It even seems to work fine for the higher class races.
Everything is done manually. I don't use any software to analyze the match up or contender selection at all. So far it's working well for me.

Charlie

tompkins · 06-01-2006, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cprescigno

I'm not using software at all. Trying to mix a Val or a Spec and the Match Up is not gong to work. The base guidelines are very different. It just wouldn't work.

glad someone else noticed the same thing. They are mutually exclusive to one another.

cprescigno · 06-01-2006, 02:20 PM

Belmont Race 3

I missed this one. And unless someone was sharp enough to have bet the 1 horse win/place so did you.
It came in 3-1-6

Really should be betting a 1 horse pick win/place when they are at these odds. the 1 paid $10.40 to place.

So that just means we have to hit the other three races to maintain a 75% hit ratio. We should be able to do that.

Charlie

cprescigno · 06-01-2006, 03:10 PM

Belmont Race 5

We missed again on this one. Looks like they are really looking to ruin my win percentage here.
Came in 4-1A-6-7

Looked like it was going to go to the 7-1 but they ran out of gas. The other Sustained horse took the race.

Now that's two misses on today's races.

Charlie

cprescigno · 06-01-2006, 03:42 PM

Arlington Park Race 4

Well we hit this one with the 6 horse but it wasn't very satisfying. Hitting the chalk at 4/5 isn't very impressive.
Came in 6-1-8-12

The 10 had the pace. Someone should have told him he was a presser. He couldn't hold off the closers. I thought at least he would have been in the money.

So that's 1 for three so far. Not exactly 75%. Maybe I'm heading for a 75% MISS RATIO.....Can't have that.

Charlie

cprescigno · 06-01-2006, 07:07 PM

Belmont Race 8
This one brought us back to 50% hit ratio. Now we have to go to Evangeline tonight to get it up to 75%.
The 3 wins here and pays $10.80

It comes 3-5-8-2

Two of the picks were in the top four horses.

Charlie

06-01-2006, 11:42 AM	#1
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Belmont June 1 - Hat Tricks OK since I have been working with the Match Up and using the information that both Jim and Richie are posting up my accuracy has improved dramatically. I am hitting 75% of my races on a good day. On a bad day I'm going 60%. I'm not good at Belmont so I figured I'd work at it a bit. Sunday played four races, hit three with a double. The 8th at Belmont is the one I missed. I hit the double at Lone Star and the 10th at MNR. I've hit one horse at $59 and one at $49. My sample data is a bit low as I have been working on this without making a real bet. I started betting my picks the last 14 days and hitting pretty solid. Yesterday I hit the double at Indiana. Caught a First race winner at $18.40 and I took a shot at the second maiden race. My pick was the 1-5 second race. The 1 would have paid $252 and the 5 $40.00. The 5 took it for a $40 double. I've hit a double the last four days in a row. Couldn't put one together today.At least not yet. I still have a bunch to learn here but here are three races at Belmont today. I try to isolate the winner for a single win bet but I'm not Jim Bradshaw. (BUT I.M BETTER THAN RICHIE) Maybe if I practice this for another 10-15 years I'll get close to Jim's level. BELMONT JUNE 1 RACE 3 WIN 1 1 ML 6/1 RACE 5 WIN 1A-7 !A ML 2/1 7 ML 5/1 RACE 8 WIN 3-7 3 ML 8/1 7 ML 12/1 Good Luck Charlie Here's one more at Arlington Park for June 1 (today) AP - RACE 4 WIN 10-6 6-ML 2/1 10 - ML 10/1

06-01-2006, 12:21 PM	#2
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Belmont June 1 8th Race The 7 scratched in the 8th Race at Belmont so I moved my bet to the 2 horse. WIN Bet 3-2 ML on the 2 is 6/1 Charlie

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06-01-2006, 12:30 PM	#3
jms62 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 798	Great Job!!! COntinued success... Question , are you no longer using software or are you somehow incorporating both methods.

06-01-2006, 12:47 PM	#4
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	I'm not using software at all. Trying to mix a Val or a Spec and the Match Up is not gong to work. The base guidelines are very different. It just wouldn't work. I am working almost completely manually. Right now I'm using Spec to pick my pacelines. It's just easier for me to read than the PP Sheets. I pick the pacelines based on how I think the horse can perform to today's race. Then I isolate my Early horses and work their paclines making all BL and distance adjustment manually. The more you do this the better you get at it. Will I ever b able to do this in my head like Jim, I don't know. He is able to eliminate his non-contenders a lot faster than I can. I make all adjustments writing down my pacelines for each contender. I adjust 2/10ths of a second for each behind length. For final fraction adjustments I use 51 FPS divided into 660Ft. (1 Furlong) whcih give me a 12.94 second adjustment. I use 13 flat. I use 6.4 for a half furlong. This seems to work fine for the type races I go into. It even seems to work fine for the higher class races. Everything is done manually. I don't use any software to analyze the match up or contender selection at all. So far it's working well for me. Charlie

06-01-2006, 02:20 PM	#6
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Belmont Race 3 I missed this one. And unless someone was sharp enough to have bet the 1 horse win/place so did you. It came in 3-1-6 Really should be betting a 1 horse pick win/place when they are at these odds. the 1 paid $10.40 to place. So that just means we have to hit the other three races to maintain a 75% hit ratio. We should be able to do that. Charlie

06-01-2006, 03:10 PM	#7
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Belmont Race 5 We missed again on this one. Looks like they are really looking to ruin my win percentage here. Came in 4-1A-6-7 Looked like it was going to go to the 7-1 but they ran out of gas. The other Sustained horse took the race. Now that's two misses on today's races. Charlie

06-01-2006, 03:42 PM	#8
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Arlington Park Race 4 Well we hit this one with the 6 horse but it wasn't very satisfying. Hitting the chalk at 4/5 isn't very impressive. Came in 6-1-8-12 The 10 had the pace. Someone should have told him he was a presser. He couldn't hold off the closers. I thought at least he would have been in the money. So that's 1 for three so far. Not exactly 75%. Maybe I'm heading for a 75% MISS RATIO.....Can't have that. Charlie

06-01-2006, 07:07 PM	#9
cprescigno Spec Rookie Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: NYC Posts: 258	Belmont Race 8 This one brought us back to 50% hit ratio. Now we have to go to Evangeline tonight to get it up to 75%. The 3 wins here and pays $10.80 It comes 3-5-8-2 Two of the picks were in the top four horses. Charlie