Derby seasoning - Pace and Cap

tompkins · 05-01-2006, 01:53 AM

First, thanks Ted for the cards to analyze. I am going to put up screen shots of "theoretical" contenders in the Derby who were good, but just not on the first Saturday in May and one of the many liknesses of this group is 6 lifetime starts of less. If you don't come into this race with a decided total energy near the top (>161), style (median in the range of 67.4 to 68 TOPS) and have an edge in all of these categories, it is not going to happen as many will show like Medalia D'Oro for one. Others Scrimshaw, Ten Most Wanted, Congaree, Millenium Wind, Express Tour, .......more to follow as I think Tapit was already exposed this way. Even Empire Maker had 5 lifetime starts but had a big edge in the other categories. Still a strike against that one which the colt almost overcame.

tompkins · 05-01-2006, 09:57 AM

improvement improvement over inexperience.

tompkins · 05-01-2006, 11:25 AM

lack of experience cost this one. We know what happened later on.

tompkins · 05-01-2006, 11:32 AM

not an exhaustive list, but something to consider.
St Averil 5, Freinds Lake 5, Bellamy Road 5, High Fly 6, Greely's Galaxy 4, Lion Heart 5, Flower Alley 4, Bandini 5, Tapit 4, Wild Horses 5, Johannesburg 1 dirt start, Congaree 4, Express Tour 5, Millenium WInd 5, Scrimshaw 5, Birdstone 5, Smarty 6, Quinton's Gold Rush 5, Atswhatimtalkinabout 5, Funny 6, Empire Maker 5, Eye of the Tiger 5, Ten Most Wanted 5.

At 5 lifetime starts, unless there is a big advantage (Monarchos), one might take pause to dowgrade it's chances. Highlighted are those that had OTHER things going for them.

tompkins · 05-01-2006, 12:12 PM

fell a bit short in the seasoning department

tompkins · 05-01-2006, 12:14 PM

going the wrong way towards the big race

tompkins · 05-01-2006, 12:16 PM

not enough races under it's belt

tompkins · 05-01-2006, 12:18 PM

good down the line when this one had more seasoning

tompkins · 05-01-2006, 12:28 PM

potential here, just too early

tompkins · 05-01-2006, 12:29 PM

another one short on experience but not for long.

05-01-2006, 01:53 AM	#1
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	Derby seasoning First, thanks Ted for the cards to analyze. I am going to put up screen shots of "theoretical" contenders in the Derby who were good, but just not on the first Saturday in May and one of the many liknesses of this group is 6 lifetime starts of less. If you don't come into this race with a decided total energy near the top (>161), style (median in the range of 67.4 to 68 TOPS) and have an edge in all of these categories, it is not going to happen as many will show like Medalia D'Oro for one. Others Scrimshaw, Ten Most Wanted, Congaree, Millenium Wind, Express Tour, .......more to follow as I think Tapit was already exposed this way. Even Empire Maker had 5 lifetime starts but had a big edge in the other categories. Still a strike against that one which the colt almost overcame. __________________ velocititian

05-01-2006, 09:57 AM	#2
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	first some of the exceptions improvement improvement over inexperience. Attached Images __________________ velocititian

05-01-2006, 11:25 AM	#3
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	couldn't overcome it lack of experience cost this one. We know what happened later on. Attached Images __________________ velocititian

05-01-2006, 11:32 AM	#4
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	some of the others and total dirt starts not an exhaustive list, but something to consider. St Averil 5, Freinds Lake 5, Bellamy Road 5, High Fly 6, Greely's Galaxy 4, Lion Heart 5, Flower Alley 4, Bandini 5, Tapit 4, Wild Horses 5, Johannesburg 1 dirt start, Congaree 4, Express Tour 5, Millenium WInd 5, Scrimshaw 5, Birdstone 5, Smarty 6, Quinton's Gold Rush 5, Atswhatimtalkinabout 5, Funny 6, Empire Maker 5, Eye of the Tiger 5, Ten Most Wanted 5. At 5 lifetime starts, unless there is a big advantage (Monarchos), one might take pause to dowgrade it's chances. Highlighted are those that had OTHER things going for them. __________________ velocititian

05-01-2006, 12:12 PM	#5
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	big favorite, short on experience fell a bit short in the seasoning department Attached Images __________________ velocititian

05-01-2006, 12:14 PM	#6
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	short experience going the wrong way towards the big race Attached Images __________________ velocititian

05-01-2006, 12:16 PM	#7
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	short on experience as well not enough races under it's belt Attached Images __________________ velocititian

05-01-2006, 12:18 PM	#8
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	again, inexperience good down the line when this one had more seasoning Attached Images __________________ velocititian

05-01-2006, 12:28 PM	#9
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	very short on seasoning potential here, just too early Attached Images __________________ velocititian

05-01-2006, 12:29 PM	#10
tompkins Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 708	to be heard from later another one short on experience but not for long. Attached Images __________________ velocititian

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