Monday SA 2/16 - Race 6 - Pace and Cap

Jeebs · 02-19-2015, 05:44 PM

A friend of mine shared this with me today with his thoughts. I did my matching and shared my thoughts with him. If you haven't looked at the result/chart, give this race a try. PPs are attached. I'll share my work-up later.

raceman5 · 02-20-2015, 11:38 AM

Well it was a tandem race with fast fractions and he was only beaten by 3 lengths so he was worth a flyer. Would love to see someone share a work up of this race using RDSS using FTL's guidelines.

Bob

Bill Lyster · 02-20-2015, 01:12 PM

Unfortunately, the winner was my 3rd choice and I was not watching live.

That being said this race was for NW2L, so in most cases the line to choose was the maiden win, unless the horse had been competitive /faster since that win. And of course the more starts with only one win starts to paint a picture of unsustainability.

Here is my raw data in my matchup: (best time (10ths) and comment?)

1 - 111.20, 4 month layoff
3 - 111.80 and not competitive at lower levels;
4 - 111.00 off of internals in last;
5 - 1/21; 11 months off
6 - 111.00 off wet fast track (I look for support elsewhere), but 110.8 off maiden win, very sustained;
7 - 110.90 off wet fast (See above); 111.00 5 back, horse is trying but is 1/14
8 - not competitive in a year and not in three races this meet;
9 - 109.90 in line 2
10 - 111.20 from route internals;
11 - that same wet fast race last out; use line 2 for 109.80
12 - 110.6 from line 3, but will have other E company;
13 - 111.2 off route internals, but never competitive

Just a miss on my part; made my face flush when I saw result.

Onward with better attention, hopefully.

The Pook · 02-20-2015, 02:01 PM

I got it down to 4,9,11,12. I use RDSS and so am not used to using the form only. Half of my contenders are Earlies and half OTE's. Didn't know where to go from here so I sneaked a peek. Yikes! Might have had him........naaawww probably not.

Pook

Jeebs · 02-20-2015, 05:22 PM

Here was my post-hoc work up.

1 is a F... Line 2 at 22.1... A note on fighters... Typically horses with ns, hd, and nk margins at first call who battle on to win or finish up close.

3 is an S.

4 is an F... Using last line of 22.2.

5 is an S.

6 is an S.

7 is a need the lead E... Tends to rattle off numerous 21.4 times. Unless another E can surpass this, this is our theoretical pace of race which we will match the rest against.

8 is a P.

9 is either an Early Presser or Sustained Presser (SP). Tough call. Just an FYI... an EP horse is NOT an E, but rather an OTHER THAN EARLY (we will use OTE from this point onward).

10 is an S.

11 is an F... Line 2 is 22.0.

12 is a need the lead E... Tops out at 22.0.

13 is basically an Unknown, given the lengthy 1 1/2 year layoff. If you want to consider him as Early, his line 7 was a Fighting line in 22.0.

So, based on our initial run style analysis, my initial projection is that this race will run OTE. We have THREE "Fighter" types and TWO need the lead "Early" runners. This is typically a recipe for the OTE runners to fly right by.

.......

1 vs. the Pace. Slow horse on Line 2. On line 1, he is well behind 21.3, 1/5th (tick) faster than our pace. In Hat's teaching, we can "voodoo" a line by adding positions per tick. Since 1 was against a pace 1 tick faster than our pace, he would be 4th at the 1st call. However, he lost several positions between calls. OUT.

3 vs. the Pace. His initial line at GG was against 22.0/45.2. His positioning goes 12-10-10 from 1st call to 2nd call to Stretch call. Although he finishes 2nd, we are not going to project his ability from Stretch call to Finish, as we would credit too many sustained types based on their final time. The point here is that the race isn't always won by the best final time. We want to see how they run. Positionally, 10th at the stretch call is too far. His 3rd line, which was a win, was a 4-3-2 move vs. a 22.3 pace. Against a 21.3 two starts back, he went 6-5-5, adjusted to 5-4-4 by fudging the line based on the faster pace (1 tick fast). Positionally, we want him closer at the stretch. Too slow and OUT!

4 vs. the Pace. His best line was last out, going 2-2-1 vs. 22.2/45.0. Too slow as a Fighter. Against faster 2 lines back, he gets destroyed. OUT.

5 vs. the Pace. Horrible form. Even if we go back 3 starts to the Hollywood turf sprint, he "power moves" 10-10-5 from 1st call to Stretch Call, and winning, but vs. a 23.1 pace. Slow horse. OUT.

6 vs. the Pace. His maiden win vs. a 22.2 was a 5-5-3 move. Too slow vs. 21.4 today. 2 back against 21.4, he moves 5-5-4. We want him closer at the stretch call. If he POWER moved 5-5-2 or better yet, 5-5-1, he would be a serious threat here as a Sustained in this Early-loaded race. But 5-5-4 is a positional disadvantage. OUT.

7 vs. the Pace. He is IN as our pace horse for now. His 21.4/44.4 1-1-1 falling a close 2nd is our line. Vs. the 1 and 4, they get blown out of the water, relegated to OTE in this particular match-up. Plus, he throws down 21.4 consistently. FAST HORSE!

8 vs. 7. 8's last vs. 21.4 is ugly... 7-10-10 and losing ground. Vs. a 21.3 in the 3rd start back, he moves 6-5-4. Even if we fudge the line to account for the quarter being a tick fast, 5-4-3 is not pressing! Positionally, the 7 is ahead of him by two positions! His maiden win vs. 21.4 from Jan 2014 was a 2-2-2 move, but based on recency, he has become slow. OUT.

9 vs. 7. Ignore 9's downhill sprint last out, as those times are funky. Line 2 is against a 21.3, and he fights and moves 2-2-2. "Voodoo-ing" this line for the 1 tick fast quarter, his line becomes 1-1-1! 3rd back vs. a 22.0, he power moves 5-2-1! This is a closer who can PASS HORSES and is FAST! The 7 on the other hand, if you look at his 6F lines, he ALWAYS loses position between the 2nd and Stretch calls. His win and 2nd were at 5 1/2F. Positionally, the 7 is now OUT! 9 is now IN!

10 vs. 9. Line 5 of 7-7-6 vs. a 21.4 puts him out of it from a position standpoint. He power moves 5-4-1 to th'e win in the start after, but that is against a soft 23.0 quarter. OUT!

11 vs. 9. A true fighter. Against 21.4 last start, he ran 3-3-3 from 1st call to stretch call, spitting the bit at the finish. Line 2 vs. 22.0, he runs 2-2-2 to a win. Line 3 vs. 21.4, 2-2-2 before fading. Line 5 vs. 21.3, He ran 4-3-5, losing position at stretch call, but after the fudging for the 1 tick faster pace, he goes 3-2-4. Start prior vs. 21.4, He moved 4-3-2 to a 2nd place finish. This horse not only can HOLD a position, but can pass horses! Lines 8 and 12 show this as well! Vs. the 9, he is behind positionally, but is a Win Contender in this match-up, as he can outlast the 7 from the 2nd call to stretch call.

9 vs. 12. The maiden win on line 7 against a 22.0 was a wire job, but against $3500 maidens at Los Alamitos Nighttime. Lines 2 and 4 vs. the 22.0 show losses of ground prior to or at the stretch call. An E who becomes OTE in this match-up. OUT!

9 vs. 13. 2-2-1 move in his maiden win vs. 22.0, but that was March 2013! Prior to that against a 21.4, he was annihilated! First off the November 2013 layoff today, I will let him beat me here, as there is not nearly enough information to make a strong guess. If he wins, so be it. OUT.

The race becomes a battle of an Early Fighter (11) vs. A fast Sustained closer (9). Hat's advice was in this situation, favor the Early horse. This is also a case where you favor price. As you saw, the tote was heavily tilted here. If I had the utmost confidence in my match-up, I would not let 52-1 odds scare me off the 11. As the chart shows, the match-up was about as perfect as you can get it.

Mark · 02-20-2015, 09:14 PM

Outstanding Job!!!

The Pook · 02-21-2015, 07:53 AM

That is one elaborate workup there Jeebs. Good work!

Jeebs · 02-22-2015, 08:18 AM

This example shows that even though this race favored OTE on the opening analysis of run styles, the Match-Up shouted out otherwise, that the OTEs COULDN'T CLOSE! This is why we work up the race and come to decisions. As mentioned, the decision came on price. Two evenly matched horses but on opposite ends of the tote board. Makes me sad that this was worked after the fact given the outcome. LOL.

02-19-2015, 05:44 PM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Monday SA 2/16 - Race 6 A friend of mine shared this with me today with his thoughts. I did my matching and shared my thoughts with him. If you haven't looked at the result/chart, give this race a try. PPs are attached. I'll share my work-up later. Last edited by Jeebs; 02-16-2017 at 09:29 AM.

02-20-2015, 11:38 AM	#2
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,363	Sa Well it was a tandem race with fast fractions and he was only beaten by 3 lengths so he was worth a flyer. Would love to see someone share a work up of this race using RDSS using FTL's guidelines. Bob

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Adjustments Question	Ted Craven	RDSS2 / FAQ's	3	06-29-2014 03:22 PM
Another paceless race - IMHO	Bill Lyster	Matchup Discussion	12	01-31-2014 11:55 AM
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST	Ted Craven	August Contest	1	07-24-2012 10:09 PM
Bad RDSS Race Data for several Euro Horses	Ted Craven	2011	2	11-03-2011 03:24 PM
Jim Bradshaw's 5 Step Approach to learning the Matchup	RichieP	Hat Check - How Can We Help You?	1	05-25-2009 09:52 AM

02-20-2015, 01:12 PM	#3
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,499	Unfortunately, the winner was my 3rd choice and I was not watching live. That being said this race was for NW2L, so in most cases the line to choose was the maiden win, unless the horse had been competitive /faster since that win. And of course the more starts with only one win starts to paint a picture of unsustainability. Here is my raw data in my matchup: (best time (10ths) and comment?) 1 - 111.20, 4 month layoff 3 - 111.80 and not competitive at lower levels; 4 - 111.00 off of internals in last; 5 - 1/21; 11 months off 6 - 111.00 off wet fast track (I look for support elsewhere), but 110.8 off maiden win, very sustained; 7 - 110.90 off wet fast (See above); 111.00 5 back, horse is trying but is 1/14 8 - not competitive in a year and not in three races this meet; 9 - 109.90 in line 2 10 - 111.20 from route internals; 11 - that same wet fast race last out; use line 2 for 109.80 12 - 110.6 from line 3, but will have other E company; 13 - 111.2 off route internals, but never competitive Just a miss on my part; made my face flush when I saw result. Onward with better attention, hopefully.

02-20-2015, 02:01 PM	#4
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,796	I got it down to 4,9,11,12. I use RDSS and so am not used to using the form only. Half of my contenders are Earlies and half OTE's. Didn't know where to go from here so I sneaked a peek. Yikes! Might have had him........naaawww probably not. Pook

02-20-2015, 05:22 PM	#5
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Here was my post-hoc work up. 1 is a F... Line 2 at 22.1... A note on fighters... Typically horses with ns, hd, and nk margins at first call who battle on to win or finish up close. 3 is an S. 4 is an F... Using last line of 22.2. 5 is an S. 6 is an S. 7 is a need the lead E... Tends to rattle off numerous 21.4 times. Unless another E can surpass this, this is our theoretical pace of race which we will match the rest against. 8 is a P. 9 is either an Early Presser or Sustained Presser (SP). Tough call. Just an FYI... an EP horse is NOT an E, but rather an OTHER THAN EARLY (we will use OTE from this point onward). 10 is an S. 11 is an F... Line 2 is 22.0. 12 is a need the lead E... Tops out at 22.0. 13 is basically an Unknown, given the lengthy 1 1/2 year layoff. If you want to consider him as Early, his line 7 was a Fighting line in 22.0. So, based on our initial run style analysis, my initial projection is that this race will run OTE. We have THREE "Fighter" types and TWO need the lead "Early" runners. This is typically a recipe for the OTE runners to fly right by. ....... 1 vs. the Pace. Slow horse on Line 2. On line 1, he is well behind 21.3, 1/5th (tick) faster than our pace. In Hat's teaching, we can "voodoo" a line by adding positions per tick. Since 1 was against a pace 1 tick faster than our pace, he would be 4th at the 1st call. However, he lost several positions between calls. OUT. 3 vs. the Pace. His initial line at GG was against 22.0/45.2. His positioning goes 12-10-10 from 1st call to 2nd call to Stretch call. Although he finishes 2nd, we are not going to project his ability from Stretch call to Finish, as we would credit too many sustained types based on their final time. The point here is that the race isn't always won by the best final time. We want to see how they run. Positionally, 10th at the stretch call is too far. His 3rd line, which was a win, was a 4-3-2 move vs. a 22.3 pace. Against a 21.3 two starts back, he went 6-5-5, adjusted to 5-4-4 by fudging the line based on the faster pace (1 tick fast). Positionally, we want him closer at the stretch. Too slow and OUT! 4 vs. the Pace. His best line was last out, going 2-2-1 vs. 22.2/45.0. Too slow as a Fighter. Against faster 2 lines back, he gets destroyed. OUT. 5 vs. the Pace. Horrible form. Even if we go back 3 starts to the Hollywood turf sprint, he "power moves" 10-10-5 from 1st call to Stretch Call, and winning, but vs. a 23.1 pace. Slow horse. OUT. 6 vs. the Pace. His maiden win vs. a 22.2 was a 5-5-3 move. Too slow vs. 21.4 today. 2 back against 21.4, he moves 5-5-4. We want him closer at the stretch call. If he POWER moved 5-5-2 or better yet, 5-5-1, he would be a serious threat here as a Sustained in this Early-loaded race. But 5-5-4 is a positional disadvantage. OUT. 7 vs. the Pace. He is IN as our pace horse for now. His 21.4/44.4 1-1-1 falling a close 2nd is our line. Vs. the 1 and 4, they get blown out of the water, relegated to OTE in this particular match-up. Plus, he throws down 21.4 consistently. FAST HORSE! 8 vs. 7. 8's last vs. 21.4 is ugly... 7-10-10 and losing ground. Vs. a 21.3 in the 3rd start back, he moves 6-5-4. Even if we fudge the line to account for the quarter being a tick fast, 5-4-3 is not pressing! Positionally, the 7 is ahead of him by two positions! His maiden win vs. 21.4 from Jan 2014 was a 2-2-2 move, but based on recency, he has become slow. OUT. 9 vs. 7. Ignore 9's downhill sprint last out, as those times are funky. Line 2 is against a 21.3, and he fights and moves 2-2-2. "Voodoo-ing" this line for the 1 tick fast quarter, his line becomes 1-1-1! 3rd back vs. a 22.0, he power moves 5-2-1! This is a closer who can PASS HORSES and is FAST! The 7 on the other hand, if you look at his 6F lines, he ALWAYS loses position between the 2nd and Stretch calls. His win and 2nd were at 5 1/2F. Positionally, the 7 is now OUT! 9 is now IN! 10 vs. 9. Line 5 of 7-7-6 vs. a 21.4 puts him out of it from a position standpoint. He power moves 5-4-1 to th'e win in the start after, but that is against a soft 23.0 quarter. OUT! 11 vs. 9. A true fighter. Against 21.4 last start, he ran 3-3-3 from 1st call to stretch call, spitting the bit at the finish. Line 2 vs. 22.0, he runs 2-2-2 to a win. Line 3 vs. 21.4, 2-2-2 before fading. Line 5 vs. 21.3, He ran 4-3-5, losing position at stretch call, but after the fudging for the 1 tick faster pace, he goes 3-2-4. Start prior vs. 21.4, He moved 4-3-2 to a 2nd place finish. This horse not only can HOLD a position, but can pass horses! Lines 8 and 12 show this as well! Vs. the 9, he is behind positionally, but is a Win Contender in this match-up, as he can outlast the 7 from the 2nd call to stretch call. 9 vs. 12. The maiden win on line 7 against a 22.0 was a wire job, but against $3500 maidens at Los Alamitos Nighttime. Lines 2 and 4 vs. the 22.0 show losses of ground prior to or at the stretch call. An E who becomes OTE in this match-up. OUT! 9 vs. 13. 2-2-1 move in his maiden win vs. 22.0, but that was March 2013! Prior to that against a 21.4, he was annihilated! First off the November 2013 layoff today, I will let him beat me here, as there is not nearly enough information to make a strong guess. If he wins, so be it. OUT. The race becomes a battle of an Early Fighter (11) vs. A fast Sustained closer (9). Hat's advice was in this situation, favor the Early horse. This is also a case where you favor price. As you saw, the tote was heavily tilted here. If I had the utmost confidence in my match-up, I would not let 52-1 odds scare me off the 11. As the chart shows, the match-up was about as perfect as you can get it.

02-20-2015, 09:14 PM	#6
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Outstanding Job!!!

02-21-2015, 07:53 AM	#7
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,796	That is one elaborate workup there Jeebs. Good work!

02-22-2015, 08:18 AM	#8
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	This example shows that even though this race favored OTE on the opening analysis of run styles, the Match-Up shouted out otherwise, that the OTEs COULDN'T CLOSE! This is why we work up the race and come to decisions. As mentioned, the decision came on price. Two evenly matched horses but on opposite ends of the tote board. Makes me sad that this was worked after the fact given the outcome. LOL.