Woodbine Opportunity for a while at least

[Bill Lyster]

It’s a great place to study layoff horses since about 90% don’t race in the winter. Most horses returning have 4-7 works.

So this last weekend I wrote down the fastest WO % since each horse last raced. Most winners had the top 3 WO% in the 90%+ range and a couple of cheap maiden races the top 3 winner had a 78 and an 81. You only record works since they last raced. But on the entries screen there is a WR column, for workout ranks. Those results were even better.

On Saturday 8 of 9 races were won by horses with the top 2 WR rating!, 4 exactas were top 2. On Sunday 5 out of 8 were top 2 with 4 exactas in the top 2 and that does not include the winner of the 9th race whose last two works scored 93 and 94. That horse was 4th best WR rating but the only horse with two consecutive high value works prior to racing.

There was even the winner of the 7th race that had worked three 100% ratings in a row since its last race and won at 2/1!! No body was paying much attention.

This may not last long but it takes a while to get 700-800 horses to the track when they are only putting 55-65 out per day in the early going. So works will help winnow down the field.

I would add that any horse that repeated a highly ranked workout within the workout period should be considered even if not top 3.

This is what I found before I remembered that RDSS has a workout rating WR on its entries sheets. I think the WR value has a little more nuance than simply recording workout % ages.

Saturdays winners had the following workout ratings 95-100-78-93-94-97-96-95-93. The 78 was from a cheap MCL race

Sundays had the following ratings 96-81-98-89-97-97-100-100 (3 wks in a row and was only 2/1!!!) and the last race the winner was not among the top 3 but had a 93 and a 94 in its last two workouts (rarely found). It was only one of 4 with triple digit WR ratings with a 110 and missed being third by 1 pt!

So on Saturday the winner was top 3 8 out of 9 and on Sunday 6 out of 8. These were raw numbers before I remembered the WR ratings, still good but not as much

7th race Sunday:


8th race Sunday, first the entries screen and then from the PPs.

[dadams6357]

Thanks Bill
I was never able to figure out how to use the long layoff
works into my handicapping.
Thanks appreciate it.
Don

[Bill Lyster]

Don, me thinks this is a short term phenomenon, until the horses have one or two races under their belts/girths. Its good info now because no one is fresh and the works are the only thing pointing to live horses other than horses that have won off layoffs in the past. You still have to give some consideration for local horses that went south for the winter and are just coming back home to roost. If they ran at GP or TP on tapeta those races should be kept in mind for final decisions.

If you search for posts by Galen Mitchell (posted as "Mitch") he did a lot of work on this angle a year or more ago. He could add to your understanding of this facet of racing.

Regards,