Practice race from "The Hat"

[RichieP]

Jim picked this race himself and asked me to post it up.

This is a "Hat Special"

Again we will "see" the pp's like he does
NO dates
NO ml odds


He asked me to tell you " Remember identify running styles and project your pace from the FIRST call."

EVERYONE is welcome to post their working of the race here. Jim asked me to leave it up here for a few days and give folks a chance to work it and see it.

ok the distance of TODAY'S race is 8f on the dirt

this is the screenshot of the 1 horse

[RichieP]

the # 2 was scratched. This is the # 3 horse

[RichieP]

the 4 horse

[RichieP]

the 5 horse

[RichieP]

the 6 horse

[RichieP]

the 7 horse

[RichieP]

the 8 horse to complete the field

TODAY'S distance is 8f on the dirt

[VoodooFan]

1. #1) early
2. #3) sustained presser
3. #4) early and early presser (need-to-lead at 2nd call)
4. #5) sustained
5. #6) early and presser
6. #7) early and early presser
7. #8) early/need-to-lead/gate to wire
8. the Corporate Laddar tandem is the prevailing tandem, but will probably not run that fast
9. the Tiffany Gold tandem, #5) beat the #3) as a Late runner
10. the #8) will get the lead out the gate; has gotten with times of 22.3, 23, and 22.4.
11. the fastest of the early horses out the gate is the #4 with 23.1; he will be 2nd behind the #8. This eliminates the #1 and #7.

1. The #8 horse likes to lead at the first two calls and will at least get it , but he cannot fight off pressure after 2nd call; recent race leaves his condition suspect ,also.
2. The #4 pressing recently, get the lead at the 2nd call in a 114,and still faded. He will not get the lead over the #8 horse at the 2nd call, he's out.
3. The race seems to set up "other than early". The #6 will be third, passing the #4, but recent race shows his condition is suspect.
4. Between the #3 and #5: the corporate ladder tandem, the #3 will not have those horses in front of him. The #5 beat #3 as a Late horse, and #3's position should improve today.
5. The #3 will win the race, with #5 in the money.

[gl45]

Projected pace 22.4 47 112.3 143.3
All horses best pacelines are taken at 1.7 mile

Early 5 horses 1-4-6-7-8
Sust 2 horses 3-5

#1 line2 time 24.0 47.3 112.4 143.4 OUT too slow
position 1 1 1 1

#3 line6 time 22.4 47.0 112.3 143.3 Contender
position 6 3 2 2

#4 line2 time 23.1 47.2 112.2 144.2 OUT slow 3th fraction
position 1 1 1 1

#5 line4 time 24.0 47.4 112.4 143.4 OUT too far behind
position 11 10 4 2

#6 line2 time 22.4 46.2 112.4 143.0 Contender
position 3 2 1 1

#7 is a sprinter OUT

#8 line5 time 22.4 47.0 112.3 143.3 Contender
position 1 1 1 1

1st. call
#8 1st.
#6 3th.
#3 6th.

2nd. call
#6 1st
#8 3th.
#6 6th

Stretch
#6 1st.
#8 2nd
#6 4th.

Finish
#6 1st.
#8 5th.
#3 7th.

This is my positional matchup of the 3 contenders.
#6 Win

Pino

[Turbulator]

Too much early so I look for an early presser or presser.

I project the pace off of the first two calls of the 8 horse, and the final time of the six horse--22.8 46.4 1:43 (in tenths--about a 1:38 or 1:39 mile.)

The six horse has won as an E, EP and Presser--a dangerous animal. The six horse also won the race in 1:43 from which the early pace is projected.

The six is the only horse in the race with the proper running style that can run to the projected pace.

(If you look closely you can see that the six doesn't do well with a slower pace unless he can get the lead all by himself, in which case he has wired the field.)