Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - FPLR

Capcondo · 01-01-2009, 11:24 PM

On New Years Day, I didn't watch much football. I was working on AQU, CRC, HAW, and PHA. After the day was over, it occurred to me that several of the races were won by the FPLR horse. So I went back through the forms and identified the FPLR horses. I used the last race at a comparable distance on a comparable track and surface. If the horse had nothing but sprints in a route, I tossed the horse. I used a bit of judgment here but not much. Here are the results with prices:

FPLR Analysis
1/1/2009

Race AQU CRC HAW PHA Total

1 L L L FTS
2 3.10 L L L
3 L 6.80 4.80 6.20
4 FTS L 6.60 S to R
5 5.90 L L 9.60
6 29.60 8.80 L 16.00
7 L L L L
8 L L L 24.00
9 L L L
10 16.40

Return 38.60 15.60 27.80 55.80 137.80
Bet 18.00 18.00 20.00 16.00 72.00

Profit 20.60 (2.40) 7.80 39.80 65.80

ROI 114.44% -13.33% 39.00% 248.75% 91.39%

Pct Winners:

Won 2 2 3 4 11
Played 9 9 10 8 36

Percentages 22.22% 22.22% 30.00% 50.00% 30.56%

Avg Mutual 12.87 7.80 9.27 13.95 11.48

This may be a bit of an aberration. But, it's just like the man with the HAT says. I'll never look at a race again without identifying the FPLR horse. And then, I will look at every race in his/her record.

Happy New Year,

Tim

P.S. can you fix the spacing for me. Thanks.

01-01-2009, 11:24 PM	#1
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	FPLR - Fastest Pace Last Race On New Years Day, I didn't watch much football. I was working on AQU, CRC, HAW, and PHA. After the day was over, it occurred to me that several of the races were won by the FPLR horse. So I went back through the forms and identified the FPLR horses. I used the last race at a comparable distance on a comparable track and surface. If the horse had nothing but sprints in a route, I tossed the horse. I used a bit of judgment here but not much. Here are the results with prices: FPLR Analysis 1/1/2009 Race AQU CRC HAW PHA Total 1 L L L FTS 2 3.10 L L L 3 L 6.80 4.80 6.20 4 FTS L 6.60 S to R 5 5.90 L L 9.60 6 29.60 8.80 L 16.00 7 L L L L 8 L L L 24.00 9 L L L 10 16.40 Return 38.60 15.60 27.80 55.80 137.80 Bet 18.00 18.00 20.00 16.00 72.00 Profit 20.60 (2.40) 7.80 39.80 65.80 ROI 114.44% -13.33% 39.00% 248.75% 91.39% Pct Winners: Won 2 2 3 4 11 Played 9 9 10 8 36 Percentages 22.22% 22.22% 30.00% 50.00% 30.56% Avg Mutual 12.87 7.80 9.27 13.95 11.48 This may be a bit of an aberration. But, it's just like the man with the HAT says. I'll never look at a race again without identifying the FPLR horse. And then, I will look at every race in his/her record. Happy New Year, Tim P.S. can you fix the spacing for me. Thanks.