Hi FTL
Yes your comments and illustrations helps
Yes I see the 2 is a Early Presser when running routes The 5 is a Early 7
So in this match up who will win Isn't the third fraction the difference ?
You wrote
Quote:
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In the case of the #2 horse, it appears the trainer believed his horse needed some conditioning after its' layoff, so he planned the conditioning races as he saw fit. First a sprint, then a route. After seeing how it performed in the route, he decided on another sprint. One thing is for sure. You could certainly expect a better race today than the horse showed in its' route race two back. As it turned out, the #2 stalked the #5 to the top of the stretch where it finally wore the #5 horse down and then went on to win.
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I have switched the PP tabs to add the LPR or FFR = 3rd fraction readings
For horse #2 I have crossed out the sprint races like you did
It runs third fractions of ...
82.8, 79.8, 90.5 80,4 92,1 and it uses its energy more toward the sustained side of the Early Late graph
The 5 is much more of a early energy horse. It did run a 92.5 and a 91 3rd fractions in lines 5 and 6 But look at its last 4 races.
It ran 3rd fractions of only 77.7 80.5 57,7 71.5
These are 5000 claimer 3rd fractions ! The #2 in when in form will kill the 5 because the 5 seems to have lost its 3rd fraction ability. I agree that
once a early horse loses its lead it fades or in the 5's case quits
But it seems to me that the 5 just is unable to compete past the 2nd call
and its losing its lead because of its inability to carry its energy into the 3rd fraction.
After all I doubt there are many here who can see what you do and just by eye ball can tell the 5 will quit.
The rest of us depend on the Sartin programs and the Sartin programs give us a readout and ranking of all three fractions. Actually It did a good job in this race although it had the 2 much to far back in the first two fractions.