[Lt1]

Finally got around to doing a 100 race survey on this factor. The tracks were PARX,DEL,MTH,& TDN. Here is how he described a failure in his book Winning At Races[Chap 10]. I count a good race as finishing in the money or beating half the field[ finishing within 3&3/4 lengths in sprints from 5f to 6,5f, within 4&3/4 lengths @7f. & within 5&3/4 in a route
Quirin Form Failure Example
Here is 1 of the example he gives using the horses last 4 lines.
DIST CLASS FIN
6.0 13000 4TH 4
8.5 13000 8TH 12
6.5 16000 5TH 7
6.O 10000 2ND 1
Last good race was line 4. If entered in a sprint above 10k then ignore line 2. If entered in a sprint for 10k or less then the sprint for 13k is forgiven but if entered for 13k then line 1 is a failure ie failed to accomplish what has to do today. If entered in a 16k sprint then both line 1 &3 are failures. If entered in a 10k route no failures, if entered in 13k rt the last 2 are failures, if in a 16k route then the last 3 are failures.
There are exceptions
1 last race comes after 31+ day l/o
2 last race came before a 31day+l/o
3 Any race with valid ex ie blocked, bumped, forced wide, poor start
4 Female against males
5 3 yr old against older
6 different surface ie dirt/turf and horse has never run a good race on turf or turf to dirt & no good dirt races.
Now the survey results
Horses Wins Win%
100 7 7
These results did surprise me since I didn't expect such a low win %. Based on this survey this factor is an even stronger elimination factor then Scotts'
factors. I'm starting another survey today to confirm the results of this survey .Stay tuned for results.
Tim