Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 06-19-2014, 05:27 PM

Jeebs, you said it almost perfectly, in my view.

The line you describe would be called a 'good within a bad race' (+) and is certainly evidence that the horse has some spark to it. Unless it's a disadvantaged Early (perhaps again) today, i.e. other Earlies will demand the same pace again, or a chronic hanger - I would look for evidence of ability within the past 2 lines or so (and try to seek confirmation of such final time SR or internal pace times) - and then use THAT line to represent the horse.

I think it's more important to choose Contenders first, then find the best that they can do recently, but choose pacelines consistently so your race-to-race analysis can be called 'comparable' (e.g. best Perceptor rating within the last 3 races, comparable distance structure and surface). Don't forgive horses too much when you are seeking a bet in the Win pool - ask that they did something in their last line, or have an excuse (possibly like your opening scenario, or trouble, etc). You can forgive horses a bit more when you are only asking them to run 2nd - 4th.

If you are a one-horse, Win pool bettor - you can ask that a horse NOT be rated 20-1 on the Morning Line, or raced within 90 days, or use the 'Last Line except' ... But if you want to find contenders who can also finish in-the-money for your Place, Exacta and deeper vertical exotic pools - then consider following Doc Sartin's advice later in his career and look deeper (i.e. 2nd or 3rd races back) to represent what it can do today. Comparing all horses to each other this way, and separating Win Contenders from ITM Contenders (and including TOP 4 BL, Top 5 CSR and Top 3 and ties VDC, Top 3 CR among them - and eliminating the rest!) gets you LIVE HORSES to bet on a very VERY high percentage of the time.

Try it!

Jeebs, your scenario seems like a natural reason to go beyond the last line for a horse, if you're looking for other-than-favourites. The public will be very cautious about that last line, and sometimes give you a good price - which you'll need, to insure against the inevitable when you decide to bet ON such horses and they lose.

Maybe we can throw up a collection of images here illustrating what such horses look like (though it is important also to know the likely pace of the race it will face today).

Ted

06-19-2014, 05:27 PM	#2
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Jeebs, you said it almost perfectly, in my view. The line you describe would be called a 'good within a bad race' (+) and is certainly evidence that the horse has some spark to it. Unless it's a disadvantaged Early (perhaps again) today, i.e. other Earlies will demand the same pace again, or a chronic hanger - I would look for evidence of ability within the past 2 lines or so (and try to seek confirmation of such final time SR or internal pace times) - and then use THAT line to represent the horse. I think it's more important to choose Contenders first, then find the best that they can do recently, but choose pacelines consistently so your race-to-race analysis can be called 'comparable' (e.g. best Perceptor rating within the last 3 races, comparable distance structure and surface). Don't forgive horses too much when you are seeking a bet in the Win pool - ask that they did something in their last line, or have an excuse (possibly like your opening scenario, or trouble, etc). You can forgive horses a bit more when you are only asking them to run 2nd - 4th. If you are a one-horse, Win pool bettor - you can ask that a horse NOT be rated 20-1 on the Morning Line, or raced within 90 days, or use the 'Last Line except' ... But if you want to find contenders who can also finish in-the-money for your Place, Exacta and deeper vertical exotic pools - then consider following Doc Sartin's advice later in his career and look deeper (i.e. 2nd or 3rd races back) to represent what it can do today. Comparing all horses to each other this way, and separating Win Contenders from ITM Contenders (and including TOP 4 BL, Top 5 CSR and Top 3 and ties VDC, Top 3 CR among them - and eliminating the rest!) gets you LIVE HORSES to bet on a very VERY high percentage of the time. Try it! Jeebs, your scenario seems like a natural reason to go beyond the last line for a horse, if you're looking for other-than-favourites. The public will be very cautious about that last line, and sometimes give you a good price - which you'll need, to insure against the inevitable when you decide to bet ON such horses and they lose. Maybe we can throw up a collection of images here illustrating what such horses look like (though it is important also to know the likely pace of the race it will face today). Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™