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Old 07-05-2012, 01:54 PM   #1
For The Lead
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Betting...DO's and DON'T's

I have been following the "LEARN TO WIN" contest from its' inception and I can't think of a better opportunity than this to make just one of the MANY observations I have.

Here is a link to a recent post in Bill V's July contest thread.
Let me make it VERY CLEAR(especially to Bill V), I am NOT picking on Bill V. I'm sure he has kicked himself in the butt enough already. I don't need to add to it.
I am simply using his recent post as an example.
Here is the link.

A very basic "learn to win" concept of the methodology is...whatever your bet amount may be, 60% of that bet amount is bet on the low odds horse and 40% of that bet amount is bet on the high odds horse. Naturally, this assumes you are also following the basic "learn to win" methodology principal of two horse betting.

Following this basic "learn to win" concept of the methodology, Bill V would have bet $40 on the winner of this race that paid $36.00, which was his high odds horse and $60 on the lower odds horse, which did not win.

The result of this basic "learn to win" betting concept would have returned $720 less the $100 bet for a profit of $620, a very nice return.

I will also take this opportunity to offer another observation.
In this contest, it seems place betting has taken center stage and why not? A contestant receives the same "hit value" for winning a place bet as they do for winning a win bet. It seems this has distracted several contestants from the ultimate goal in handicapping horse races...WINNING THE RACE!

If place betting is to be allowed in the contest, then it should be proportionate. In other words, in a real horse race, the purse distribution is 60% of the purse to the winning horse and 20% of the purse to the place horse. Perhaps the win/place "hit value" in the contest should mirror what happens in the purse distribution of a race. It would allow for contestants to get credit for a winning place bet, while keeping the emphasis on win bets.
So if a contestant wants to make a $100 place bet on a very short priced horse, knowing he/she stands a good chance of winning the bet and will get the same "hit value" as another contestant that is successful at winning a $100 win bet on a horse that pays $20.00, go right ahead, just understand that you will only get 1/3 (one third) credit for winning that $100 place bet. By the way, I didn't make up this $100 place bet on a short priced horse. A contestant actually made such a bet.
And then there is the $25 to win/$75 to place bet I have seen. No problem. Just understand that if the horse runs second, you get 1/3 (one third) credit.
This type of bet may help with the "earnings" side of the contest, although I wouldn't agree with that, but will take away from the "hit value"...... as it should.

This is a FREE contest!!! Why play like your betting the rent money??? LEARN TO WIN!
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
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