Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 10-26-2020, 11:04 AM

I agree with you Pook that a non-contender can have an influence on the pace of the race. Once you know the true Match Up of the contenders its very easy to check the non-contenders, thus eliminating a very detailed process. Actually there were 3 horses that figured in the pace of this race alter the 10 scratched and they were the 1,2 & 8.

I demand at least 3 earlies or more to have an early effect on pace. The reason for that is that with only 2 horses and one is not in form than the pressure or duel never sets up or materializes. The more the merrier.

When there are 3 or more, one key lies in their 3rd FR of pace and their DCL or how fast they decelerate. They don't all do this at the same rate and many times one will hang on for the EX or Tri. If only one the others will loaf behind the lone early who will feels comfortable and will slow down and many times hang on for the Place.

The 5 here was the Counter Energy horse and the race set up perfect for him. Also paying $8 was generous. This horse had won 9 of 18 starts on turf for 50%. Now 10 of 19 starts, that includes some sprints in there so win rate is even better considering distance. For an 8 year old is very consistent. The 1 horse was a 4 year old with only 3 turf starts and a win at the distance, or most upside of the 1, 2 & 8.

Mitch44

10-26-2020, 11:04 AM	#2
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	I agree with you Pook that a non-contender can have an influence on the pace of the race. Once you know the true Match Up of the contenders its very easy to check the non-contenders, thus eliminating a very detailed process. Actually there were 3 horses that figured in the pace of this race alter the 10 scratched and they were the 1,2 & 8. I demand at least 3 earlies or more to have an early effect on pace. The reason for that is that with only 2 horses and one is not in form than the pressure or duel never sets up or materializes. The more the merrier. When there are 3 or more, one key lies in their 3rd FR of pace and their DCL or how fast they decelerate. They don't all do this at the same rate and many times one will hang on for the EX or Tri. If only one the others will loaf behind the lone early who will feels comfortable and will slow down and many times hang on for the Place. The 5 here was the Counter Energy horse and the race set up perfect for him. Also paying $8 was generous. This horse had won 9 of 18 starts on turf for 50%. Now 10 of 19 starts, that includes some sprints in there so win rate is even better considering distance. For an 8 year old is very consistent. The 1 horse was a 4 year old with only 3 turf starts and a win at the distance, or most upside of the 1, 2 & 8. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 10-26-2020 at 11:07 AM.