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The Early Non Contender
Sometimes in matching you are forced to consider whether a runner you determined to be a non-contender could affect the pace and outcome of a race.
In Woodbines 2nd race today I had five contenders... 1,4,5,6,8. There were two early runners... 1 and 2. I figured the 2 would lead or hassle the 1 enough to compromise his chance to win, so I eliminated the 1 from my contender list. The public disagreed with the ML and had 1 as favourite at 5-2 from 10-1.
It looked like an opportunity, with a solid matching reason, to discount a contender and favourite. Leaving the 1 as a contender had me on 1 and 4. With the 1 out I centered on 4,5 or 8 after removing the 6 as not being quick enough. I wasn't able to get the odds I was looking for so I passed but it ran perfectly as shown below. I have mentioned this before and I thought that this was a good illustration. Sometimes (always an early runner) a non-contender, can compromise a contenders race. You have to get the complete picture by looking at every horse.
I always watch for it. The odds didn't work out this time, but they will later .
Pook
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