Thread: Np
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Old 03-22-2012, 09:43 AM   #6
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Why keep profiles and models

In another thread, I said I would not comment on the value of NP, because there were several others that have spent a lot of time in researching that value and I was leaving that to them since they were doing such good work. What I have to say, here, is in no way an effort to diminish their work, but it is a situation that I just can’t let go by. What I am going to show you here is a follow up to something else I posted in another thread. I would rather think of what I am about to post as a continuation of Mikesal57’s and Gl45’s work, especially as it pertains to this particular race.

Below you will see a couple of screen shots.
The first is my track profile for the night of this race. There isn’t much in the way of hindsight here as this race was the 8th race on the card. To anyone paying attention, there were 7 races run prior to this one. In every single race, 1 thru 7, the winner was on the lead by “at least” the second call and went on to win. Pay particular attention to the 6f races that night as well.

If that isn’t enough, the second screen shot shows my track profile for MNR up to and including the night before this race. It is for claiming races at 6f for males. That is what this race is.

Now I invite all of you to look at the PP’s for this race. No, I don’t have them here to post for you. You are going to have to do that on your own.

There is no horse in the race, that in either of their last two races, has been anywhere near the lead at the first and second call, other than the winner, who did it in its’ last race. I know some of you will point to the #7 horse that was in 2nd position last time out. Well, that was at 7f at TAM. There is a big difference between 7f and 6f, but that is another story.

While digesting this, keep in mind that the winner ran that race in another 6f race for males and although I didn’t research it, keep the profile I have attached in mind. It applied to THAT race as well.

The winner broke from the 10 post that night and did the best it could to try and make the lead, all the way to the second call. There is no other horse in today’s race that shows that kind of effort.

My point?
If you don’t keep these kinds of records, good opportunities, like this one, will pass you by.
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