Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 08-17-2018, 02:59 PM

Bill,

I have read all of FTL's posts, some multiple times. I have great respect for his work and the hours spent handicapping and posting his work and results. I could care less that much of it is after the fact because his methods are always consistent and most of them based on original Sartin criteria. In this example, he just sited the class aspect which was a more general way of making the point I did. There was no disrespect or derision in my comment.
The class factor was telling in this case as the first fractions, there for all to see without reference to any other screens showed this particular horse's weakness. When forced to chase sub 23 first fractions it uses too much energy and cannot make up the lost ground late. So depending on your projected first fraction you could easily determine whether the horse was a win contender or not.

As a teaching example this was classic, unmarred by huge distance or surface switches and races over today's track. If ever there was an opportunity to handicap a race from RAW data, which I use, except on turf, this was it.

Finally, it is my belief and perspective that the 1st fraction is the key to the outcome of the race. It was easy enough to quickly calculate the POR 2nd fractions and see that the last race was just too fast early for this particular animal to win. As I remember, it was the best early pace of the recent races showing. And the horse ran his race. This is a decent horse that gives good effort every time out when fit but he was merely over matched. TPR informs the user of 2nd call and final fraction and are shapshots of a point in time in the race. For long time users like yourself, that may be enough. However, for me and I have been handicapping for over 50 years, I need to look at all three fractions and see how a horse responds to different pace scenarios.

As a teaching example I believe it is important that subscribers or new handicappers be exposed to different ways of looking at the races. Then they can answer the questions for themselves.

It was my impression that this blog was open for the presentation of different points of view as long as they were respectful. I can't see that my post violated and announced rules. Has that changed?

08-17-2018, 02:59 PM	#17
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	One Approach Bill, I have read all of FTL's posts, some multiple times. I have great respect for his work and the hours spent handicapping and posting his work and results. I could care less that much of it is after the fact because his methods are always consistent and most of them based on original Sartin criteria. In this example, he just sited the class aspect which was a more general way of making the point I did. There was no disrespect or derision in my comment. The class factor was telling in this case as the first fractions, there for all to see without reference to any other screens showed this particular horse's weakness. When forced to chase sub 23 first fractions it uses too much energy and cannot make up the lost ground late. So depending on your projected first fraction you could easily determine whether the horse was a win contender or not. As a teaching example this was classic, unmarred by huge distance or surface switches and races over today's track. If ever there was an opportunity to handicap a race from RAW data, which I use, except on turf, this was it. Finally, it is my belief and perspective that the 1st fraction is the key to the outcome of the race. It was easy enough to quickly calculate the POR 2nd fractions and see that the last race was just too fast early for this particular animal to win. As I remember, it was the best early pace of the recent races showing. And the horse ran his race. This is a decent horse that gives good effort every time out when fit but he was merely over matched. TPR informs the user of 2nd call and final fraction and are shapshots of a point in time in the race. For long time users like yourself, that may be enough. However, for me and I have been handicapping for over 50 years, I need to look at all three fractions and see how a horse responds to different pace scenarios. As a teaching example I believe it is important that subscribers or new handicappers be exposed to different ways of looking at the races. Then they can answer the questions for themselves. It was my impression that this blog was open for the presentation of different points of view as long as they were respectful. I can't see that my post violated and announced rules. Has that changed?