Am about to drive to the airport and fly to Oakland where my long time handicapping partner will pick me up and we will spend 3 grand days at his home in the Berkeley Hills handicapping. Will even have time to take in a Giant game. Met him in a Tom Hambleton TPR in Las Vegas in 1993.
It was refreshing to spend a week or two working TPR and following Bill V along on his excellent threads, but I am a Matcher and starting the analysis at the 2nd Call ignores some of most important aspects of Jim Bradshaw's approach, it seems to me. How does the horse normally break? Does he go forward from his break position? Where does he want to be at the 1st Call as evidenced by his best efforts and wins. No one talks about it much but Visual Running Style was all Jim's. The whole concept of horse psychology, need to lead, fighter, won't pass horses in the stretch etc was popularized by "The Hat" and Richie P in his many threads on the Hat Check Blog. So while it was a fun retrospective to revisit the old TPR days, I am firmly back to my course.
"The Hat" recommended looking through the horse's complete PPs and find the race where he finished up close or won against the fastest early pace. That isn't exactly the "Last Line". This works best in a "Paceless" race where you can't project the early pace. With these lines selected, you then have to review each horse to determine if you can use that line particularly if it is deep in the pps. Ask yourself 3 questions: 1) Is he still a horse? 2) Has he changed his running style and become a slow horse? 3) If Early, can he still get on top of his fractions? Your answers will determine whether you accept the line. I was looking at Turf lines last evening. Worked all of them. The last one exemplifies my point:
I ask you where you would be taking the "Last line, except..."
This was not a field of world beaters and don't we really want to know how fast an Early Pace a horse can be successful against? Isn't that what horse racing comes down to? Some will say, "Oh, she's off a 103 day freshening with only one workout!" This would be an immediate elimination for FTL. But what is it about layoffs that we should be so scared of. Think about it? The connections feel strongly about their horse that they will keep it in the barn or take it to the ranch and give it time and exercise to recover whatever is wrong. It is Horsey R & R!! Most tracks require a public workout if the horse has not raced in 60 days so this trainer satisfied that requirement, but hypothetically if he has his horse sharp off work at the farm do you think he will tip the betting word by working a bullet? I found out there are swimming pools available in the Mountaineer area so that when they return to racing after the winter break, those trainers with access to the pools win tons of races and before you can get on his hot streak, the public starts pounding his horses at the windows. So what is wrong with this horse.
She is sustained and has a win over the track and at the distance within 6 months, 3 of those months at the farm. in a field of EPs and P horses all of which are rated lower on BL/BL why should this horse run well at 22/1?
Maybe you want to set a small bank aside and play these kinds of horses. Pick Bradshaw's POWER LINE as your paceline and eliminate those that fail to answer his questions correctly. Doesn't take many of these to make a week or month!