Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath
Ray, you have the answer to your question in your records.
Your win percentages by rank gives you your answer.
Example: top pick 34% = 2/1 minimum to break even.
2nd pick 23% = 7/2 minimum to break even
your 5th horse at 5% = 20/1 minimum
Some authors say you should have at least a 50% overlay in order to make a bet.
others say it should be higher.
As for paceline selection FTLs guidelines are a very good way to go.
Personally I use the best of the last 3 COMPARABLE for each of my contenders.
Either of these will get you a high percentage of winners in your top 4 or 5 contenders.
From your records I am making the assumption that you are getting around 80 to 85% winners in your top 5.
My suggestion would be to work on your pacelines and try to get a few more of your 3rd, 4th, and 5th horses to move up into your top 2 or 3.
From your post this would be my suggestion.
I hope this will be of some help to you.
PS: If you would like to discuss any of this, feel fre to pm me and we can get together on skype.
rmath
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Thanks for the reply. Wouldn't those %'s reflect betting one horse to win?
I am using a 2 horse win system at the present. I haven't gotten into dutching so am using a 5% of total balance as the amount I bet. Actually I got nervous when the betting got above $20 per race ($10 per horse) and have stayed at $20.
I am trying to look at this betting through a EV point of view. Examples to follow:
If I play my #1 pick to win (34% wins) at 2:1 odds ($6.00) my EV is $0.72. One horse betting.
Now if I go to 2 horse win and use my #1 and #2 picks (34% & 23% wins), ($6.00 and $8.00 pay outs), my EV goes up to $2.16.
However if I use my #1 & #5 pick and still get 2:1 odds & 3:1 odds I have a 0-EV situation. If I want to get "about" the same EV as with my #1 & #2 picks ($2.16), I would have to get 25:1 with my 5th choice, for an EV of $2.20.
I would need 7:1 and 9:1 with my 3 & 4th picks for EV's of $2.20 and $2.28.
All the above is using the win% of my top rated horse, winning 34%. If I wanted to get about the same EV with one horse betting, I would need 4:1 odds, while holding the 34%. (+EV $2.08)
If I increase the odds I am willing to accept on the #1 pick to 5:2 (2.5:1) then my #2 pick can drop from 3:1 to 5:2 and still have a +EV of $2.27. At 5.2, my 3rd and 4th rated horses drop to 6:1 and 7:1 while having +EV's of $2.26 and $2.14 respectfully. The 5th choice drops to 20:1 with an +EV of just over $2.00 ($2.04).
Note I continue to use the %'s that my readouts give for the winning chances of each horses rating. If I can get the %'s higher in the #1 position, I should be able to use a lower odds horse and still maintain a fairly constant EV across the betting spectrum.
Sorry for this being so long but I wanted to post it all to see if what I am looking at and how I am going about my EV formula is correct. I am not the best at math, rmath. Now to read your second post.
Ray