Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - RDSS2

Mark · 05-30-2016, 10:06 PM

Peterman,

I'll be 66 next month and I am a firm believer that, "Youth is wasted on the young!" I found this website 3 years ago and have studied the Hat Check Blog til my eyes bled. After 3 years, including the time I spent figuring out how to implement the Match Up on RDSS, I am comfortable. Do I hit 50% of my wagers, I am not Jim Bradshaw. But I bet win and place so I catch enough place horses at outstanding odds to make a serious profit when I my horse runs second.
The biggest mistake I see from the handicappers that post here is that they focus on the last 3 lines. Instead of finding the line where the horse finish well, won or very close up against the fastest early pace in his pps. Now I ask you if I want to compare horses don't I want to compare what they have shown as their best? I pick lines 9 and 10 back, I don't care. Once I get them I can see who was the fastest horse in their last 10 races. There will be horses that are obvious throw outs, never finished anywhere near against these paces. So you only have to deal with a few "true contenders" as the Hat called them. Now comes the skill. Can you work your way back to that line? Are there reasons that the horse can't run back to that race? The Hat had 3: 1. horse has changed his Running Style and become a slow horse, 2) Is he still a horse? 3) Can he still get on top of his fractions. Took me quite a while to figure out what he meant. Trainers today, particularly at the mid and small tracks play too many games to darken form. So if you stick with recent lines you get beat at short odds. Most of the handicapping world does that. You have the whole story of the horse right in front of your eyes, read it from the bottom up! Remember, long layoffs are good. No one is going to put a horse away for 200 to 350 days if he is completely broken. Depending on the trainer and the reported works you can get a feeling about a horse coming back. My favorite angle is 3rd start of the long layoff. The horse has had enough work to get fit regardless of what the return races look like. If he had some snappy works all the better. Anyway, us old dogs can teach these youngsters a thing or two. But as Jim told Richie, "Hush up, your mouth can make you deaf".

05-30-2016, 10:06 PM	#31
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Paceline Selection Peterman, I'll be 66 next month and I am a firm believer that, "Youth is wasted on the young!" I found this website 3 years ago and have studied the Hat Check Blog til my eyes bled. After 3 years, including the time I spent figuring out how to implement the Match Up on RDSS, I am comfortable. Do I hit 50% of my wagers, I am not Jim Bradshaw. But I bet win and place so I catch enough place horses at outstanding odds to make a serious profit when I my horse runs second. The biggest mistake I see from the handicappers that post here is that they focus on the last 3 lines. Instead of finding the line where the horse finish well, won or very close up against the fastest early pace in his pps. Now I ask you if I want to compare horses don't I want to compare what they have shown as their best? I pick lines 9 and 10 back, I don't care. Once I get them I can see who was the fastest horse in their last 10 races. There will be horses that are obvious throw outs, never finished anywhere near against these paces. So you only have to deal with a few "true contenders" as the Hat called them. Now comes the skill. Can you work your way back to that line? Are there reasons that the horse can't run back to that race? The Hat had 3: 1. horse has changed his Running Style and become a slow horse, 2) Is he still a horse? 3) Can he still get on top of his fractions. Took me quite a while to figure out what he meant. Trainers today, particularly at the mid and small tracks play too many games to darken form. So if you stick with recent lines you get beat at short odds. Most of the handicapping world does that. You have the whole story of the horse right in front of your eyes, read it from the bottom up! Remember, long layoffs are good. No one is going to put a horse away for 200 to 350 days if he is completely broken. Depending on the trainer and the reported works you can get a feeling about a horse coming back. My favorite angle is 3rd start of the long layoff. The horse has had enough work to get fit regardless of what the return races look like. If he had some snappy works all the better. Anyway, us old dogs can teach these youngsters a thing or two. But as Jim told Richie, "Hush up, your mouth can make you deaf".