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I'm not crazy about this Oaklawn race. Lots of issues you have to deal with. There are a lot of class dropping horses and a few horses coming off of layoffs, so this race isn't that straight forward.
Because the horses are in various states of form, I don't think the race will play to type. I'm thinking possibly somewhat early, though more along the lines of an early presser rather than a one-dimensional speed ball.
If I were to go for a presser, I would pick the 3 but I think it's form is maybe a bit questionable. I'm not familiar with Oaklawn Park so I don't know what passes for a fit horse there.
Of the two early-presser type horses I'm left with the 4 and the 9. Both show good form, are racing their 3rd race off a layoff, and don't have any age disadvantages to speak of. Off of class alone, the 9 horse's races at Del Mar make this a better horse on paper, which would explain why it is the morning line favourite, but, Bank Account's account isn't as full as it used to be. Ron Moquette is %7 off the claim, so there might be a reason to bet against the 9.
As for the 4, I like that it has run 12 furlongs in the last month in the morning and that it is dropping in class. I just hope Borel gets the horse to rate, because if it tries to wire the field I think it is screwed.
I do the match-up based on 1st fraction and final time. It's not going to run this fast, but I used 22 4/5 and 1:10 as my time to match all other contenders.
To sum up, I pick the 4 horse just for win only.
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